Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Conway7305]

Models also  don’t pick up well on CAD typically past 72 hours  so hopefully we will get better idea as time get closer to storm. 

[RVASnowLover]

GFS rolling so we'll see.

[Conway7305]

GFS ok, mixes for a bit then goes back to snow 

[RVASnowLover]

GFS with a big inital thump before we changeover to sleet then back to snow 

[Conway7305]

[jlewis1111]

3 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

GFS with a big inital thump before we changeover to sleet then back to snow 

how much is it showing before we change over to sleet here in richmond? Thank you

[RVASnowLover]

1 minute ago, Conway7305 said:

Hard to be mad at this even if we mix. Maybe get the CAD to hang on a little longer. 

[RVASnowLover]

2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

how much is it showing before we change over to sleet here in richmond? Thank you

about 8-10" before  am in RIC

[jlewis1111]

1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said:

about 8-10" before  am in RIC

so our main time frame for snow is from what time to what time. Sorry for all the questions just setting up my plow teams

[RVASnowLover]

CMC is terrible. Way amped and north. Everyone mixes.

[Dick_LeBoof]

Anybody else thinking the models are underestimating the CAD?  My thoughts are that the broader synoptic pattern is generally what we are used to seeing for snow events, but the current arctic air mass is more intense than we usually see. 

[ldub23]

7 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

CMC is terrible. Way amped and north. Everyone mixes.

Its pretty  much the GFS vs all other  models  for  now. Euro will be  interesting.

[Conway7305]

6z euro was a tick south from 0z so hopefully bleeding stopped.    Will see for 12z.  Every model usually follows the euro even if its lag time.  

[chris624wx]

I'll take this after the northward march last night. Cut my losses lol


.

[RVASnowLover]

2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Its pretty  much the GFS vs all other  models  for  now. Euro will be  interesting.

Yep GFS the only model so far with a good thump before the changeover

[mikeeng92]

GFS best case scenario. CMC too amped, toss. Euro AI was still good for us I thought. 

[RVASnowLover]

Just now, chris624wx said:

I'll take this after the northward march last night. Cut my losses lol


.

I'd take it too but as well know it's hard to trust the GFS.

[RVASnowLover]

3 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said:

GFS best case scenario. CMC too amped, toss. Euro AI was still good for us I thought. 

CMC wasn't terrible with the inital thump

[mikeeng92]

 

[mikeeng92]

I was in NY for the 2007 Valentines Day storm and we got 8" of snow then 4" of sleet and it was a high impact event. Turned into a glacier, very difficult to plow. 

[RVASnowLover]

GEFS continues to be south

[mikeeng92]

[RVASnowLover]

3 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said:

That's an improvement from 0z. Still amped and has the primary going into OH but the inital thump is impressive before we switch

[Conway7305]

this is interesting.  The GFS ensembles do not appear to be north at all. In fact there are a lot of southern ensemble runs.lol 

[Conway7305]

I know we’re focused on this storm but check this out down line

[chris624wx]

7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

I know we’re focused on this storm but check this out down line

Already too far north! Going to end up in Detroit! (I kid...I kid)...

[mikeeng92]

Euro is very icy 

[RVASnowLover]

Yeah this run isn't going to do it

[ldub23]

1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said:

Yeah this run isn't going to do it

Very dry run for NC. 

[JB Fins]

That amount of QPF and showing only 3-5" of snow has me worried about power and trees, temps in the 20's and all that precip has to fall as something and Dr. No is saying, it's not snow.