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I really like this on long term models, I think we will be in a cold/snowy pattern in 20-25 days~Christmas/before


Stormchaserchuck1
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It's been a long time since 45N has been consistently below normal. This has shown up several consecutive models runs now. 

1a.thumb.gif.98975ec1087b6c0554ea2dcd672cde94.gif

1b.thumb.gif.bcaa3ca23182a4df9f23752d368befcd.gif  (+4 more model runs, going back to yesterday)

1c.thumb.gif.3a16297ebae2f157f454ab64253f0456.gif

We have been, since 2019, reversing the Pacific and Atlantic at -0.70 correlation(record)

I think the cold showing up in western Europe in +15-16D will translate to a favorable Pacific (+PNA(not -NAO)) in 20 days. 

We have had a -NAO on Christmas +4 days every year since 2017, and 7/8 years since 2014. This has been an anomaly in the midst of a very +NAO time. 

1g.gif.06fe381ab2932257cf30aa1766422d05.gif

Laws of waves and averages gives us a 80% chance of having NAO negative Dec 21-28 this year. This means that with a favorable Pacific, the Atlantic will be at least not be against us. 

(I predict a 4-8" storm in the  MA (average for Dec is 3") and a general snowy/cold time ~Dec 15-29/30.) [PNA may move more negative around Christmas when the NAO tendency dips negative]

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Go back to your old account Chuck. 

Locked. I was posting too much consecutively, thirsting for discussion. I just get excited.

The last time we had a -AO like what's being advertised on models Dec 7-13 is 2009:

3.gif.1dc591dddb1689a23415d51a1cf849a7.gif

1a.thumb.gif.2f0275a0df509d6860a3eb42058ccced.gif

1b.thumb.gif.8f54f3d80c6e07c4b0ac5afa9cf25025.gif

 

Here are the broader analogs:

14KK2Vg1m9.png.ed762db5e45de499eb0bf330b3325231.png

My 45N theorum

z3sqwAsRA6.png.dd69c2c400e7eddd9da8619f54d0d513.png

This is even before I hypothesize we transition into +PNA (or much less -pna)  Dec 15

Anyway, then 1989 is the next best analog. That had a much different outcome thereafter, 35 years ago. (87, 85, 83, 81 -ao matches.. let's see what happens)

 

2016, 2017 were liter -AO matches Dec 7-13, and these went heavy -PNA Jan/Feb

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initial point actually fell apart somewhat.. as the -NAO (high pressure) dominates

124261935_f144(2).thumb.gif.3624aeba18b8ac0440762edb7d3e48bf.gif

theory was >1.5x cold-sustained/-NAO condition in Europe/w. Atlantic was a difference maker 45N, but N. Atlantic high pressure completely filled in. I still think we will +PNA Dec19-29. Same idea pushed back a few days..

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