Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,172
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Michael Butler
    Newest Member
    Michael Butler
    Joined

Pittsburgh/Western PA Summer 2022 Discussion


Recommended Posts

32 minutes ago, TimB said:

Trend seems to be toward mostly garden variety heat, but I wouldn’t rule out a day or two of big heat (95+) mid to late next week if everything lines up right.

Mostly likely we have upper 80s and low 90s at worst, that's what I'd expect, but Euro teasing potentially 95+ at times.  Can't be ruled out I guess, just not the most likely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Mostly likely we have upper 80s and low 90s at worst, that's what I'd expect, but Euro teasing potentially 95+ at times.  Can't be ruled out I guess, just not the most likely.

Euro backed it off. We’ll see if it comes back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, TimB said:

Euro backed it off. We’ll see if it comes back.

Backed off a bit on Wednesday, but still a pretty warm day (mid to upper 80s). And it does show near 90 this coming Saturday, with low 90s on Sunday. The extreme heat on the GFS begins a little after the end of the Euro run. Still looks like a very hot pattern overall on the Euro. Shows Thursday morning in the low 70s, with 19C H85 temperatures. Probably would see 90+ by Thursday in this regime.

850t_anom.conus.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why does the GFS and its ensembles always show a warm tongue extending into western Pennsylvania? It doesn't look based in reality at all. I've never really taken a close look at the long range modeled temperatures, but almost invariably it shows Pittsburgh and southwest Pennsylvania warmer than locations that have warmer average high temperatures (in some cases, by several degrees). This image isn't cherrypicked - the warm tongue is present throughout the model run to varying degrees. But you see here it shows the 2PM temperature band (10-90th percentile) for July 27 to be 79-96 in Pittsburgh, but 75-91 in Columbus, 77-94 in Cincinnati, 76-94 in Indianapolis - yet these are all places that are about 2-4 degrees warmer on average. It even shows us warmer than the coastal plain (even DC/Baltimore area) which is a few to several degrees warmer. Chicago is always oddly cool, even though its actually 2 degrees warmer on average. Even Cleveland has an average high temperature one degree warmer, but invariably it shows Pittsburgh a couple to several degrees warmer.

Has anyone ever noticed this phenomenon before?

sfct-p105090-imp.conus.thumb.png.bfd7d31b62f2b4d465b1d7509afa0cbe.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Why does the GFS and its ensembles always show a warm tongue extending into western Pennsylvania? It doesn't look based in reality at all. I've never really taken a close look at the long range modeled temperatures, but almost invariably it shows Pittsburgh and southwest Pennsylvania warmer than locations that have warmer average high temperatures (in some cases, by several degrees). This image isn't cherrypicked - the warm tongue is present throughout the model run to varying degrees. But you see here it shows the 2PM temperature band (10-90th percentile) for July 27 to be 79-96 in Pittsburgh, but 75-91 in Columbus, 77-94 in Cincinnati, 76-94 in Indianapolis - yet these are all places that are about 2-4 degrees warmer on average. It even shows us warmer than the coastal plain (even DC/Baltimore area) which is a few to several degrees warmer. Chicago is always oddly cool, even though its actually 2 degrees warmer on average. Even Cleveland has an average high temperature one degree warmer, but invariably it shows Pittsburgh a couple to several degrees warmer.

sfct-p105090-imp.conus.thumb.png.bfd7d31b62f2b4d465b1d7509afa0cbe.png

I don't know seems to get that warm tongue right in the winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Could we escape today without any real rain?

We’re getting pretty close to that “we really need rain” stage. Wouldn’t say it’s dire yet, but we could well be dry through the weekend if we miss out today. But I’ve really enjoyed not mowing, so maybe I shouldn’t be worried.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We’re getting pretty close to that “we really need rain” stage. Wouldn’t say it’s dire yet, but we could well be dry through the weekend if we miss out today. But I’ve really enjoyed not mowing, so maybe I shouldn’t be worried.

I’m ready at least for a little bit. I’m not looking for ton of rain, but a nice thunderstorm here and there would work wonders. I love landscape and gardening, this has been a tough stretch on my plants


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, TimB said:

We’re getting pretty close to that “we really need rain” stage. Wouldn’t say it’s dire yet, but we could well be dry through the weekend if we miss out today. But I’ve really enjoyed not mowing, so maybe I shouldn’t be worried.

I really don't care if it rains.  We all know eventually the flood gates will open, so the situation is never really dire here.

I would however like to see no rain next week, as it's our church's festival all next week.  Looks like it's a rainy forecast for next week based on more recent model runs.  Not happy about that, but time to change for sure.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I really don't care if it rains.  We all know eventually the flood gates will open, so the situation is never really dire here.

I would however like to see no rain next week, as it's our church's festival all next week.  Looks like it's a rainy forecast for next week based on more recent model runs.  Not happy about that, but time to change for sure.

As I see it, there are two possibilities for next week: either warm, humid, rainy and gross, or deathly hot but dry. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TimB said:

As I see it, there are two possibilities for next week: either warm, humid, rainy and gross, or deathly hot but dry. 

Honestly, for my plans, deathly hot and dry, sorry to everyone, lol.  Could get a mix too, start in one regime and then the dome shifts.

But, the humidity is much better.  At one point the dew point was 74 today, down to 63 now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Hit at least 88 at PIT.  We'll see if interhour it went higher.  But today overachieved, while yesterday underachieved.

Edit: Topped out at 89 today.

I assume we’ll hit 90 at some point this month but it’d be funny if we didn’t.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Both models (Euro and GFS) have basically backed way down, and just want to give rain everyday.  Definitely don't want rain that week, rather it'd be 92 and sunny all week than 80 and rain.

The 18z GFS didn't look too bad. Monday looked like the day with the most widespread clouds and (thunder)showers, keeping temperatures in the mid 70s. Tuesday's activity looked less numerous, with temperatures climbing in to the mid 80s. The rest of the week just looks like typical dog days of summer stuff, with heat and humidity - upper 80s to near 90, and scattered thunderstorms around each and every day. Didn't look like any washouts over that period, just hit or miss activity... but of course there could be locally heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, it'd be weird considering it was 94 in June.  Could happen though.

Especially weird that it would be two years in a row with 90s in June and none in July. Still, I think we get there a couple times.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, TimB said:

Especially weird that it would be two years in a row with 90s in June and none in July. Still, I think we get there a couple times.

There's definitely a few chances next week, if the conditions are right.  Beyond that, who knows?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...