TS Kate -- 40mph/1006mb/N 10mph... expected to stay way out in the Atlantic

[yoda]

Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 49.9W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 49.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is forecast to continue this morning.  By this
afternoon, the depression is forecast to move northward, and then
maintain that general motion into early next week. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to remain over the open Atlantic well
to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[yoda]

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

The tropical wave and associated low pressure system that the NHC 
has been tracking for the past several days has finally acquired a 
well-defined surface circulation and enough organized deep 
convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The last few 
visible satellite images yesterday evening indicated a tight swirl 
in the low-cloud field and a 27/2325Z partial ASCAT-A pass showed 
the circulation was also well-defined, albeit with only 23-kt 
surface winds. Since the time of that scatterometer pass, however, a 
significant increase in deep convection with cloud tops colder than 
-80 deg C has developed very near and to the northeast of he center, 
with a few cells also now having developed just to the southwest of 
the center. Based on the structure noted in the ASCAT data and the 
pronounced increase in the amount and organization of the 
convection, the advisory intensity is estimated to be 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 340/06 kt. The system has slowed down 
markedly during the past several hours, likely due to the sharp 
increase in the associated convection. A turn toward the north is 
forecast to begin later this afternoon as the system moves into a 
break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge pattern, with a general 
northward motion continuing through the remainder of the forecast 
period. The latest NHC model guidance is surprisingly in good 
agreement on this track scenario, with only minor forward speed 
differences noted between the models.

The 18-20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear affecting the 
depression is expected to abate somewhat during the next 12-24 
hours, which should allow for some slight strengthening to occur 
while the system moves over 27.5 deg C sea-surface temperatures. By 
48 hours, however, the shear is forecast to increase again in excess 
of 25 kt, which should act to weaken the cyclone, possibly even 
causing it to degenerate into a remnant low. For now, however, the 
official intensity forecast calls for the system to remain a 
tropical depression at days 3 and 4 in the event the cyclone 
regenerates at day 5 when the shear is forecast to decrease below 
10 kt, which may allow for convection to redevelop. The 
official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the 
intensity consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 14.0N  49.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 14.8N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 16.1N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 17.7N  50.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 19.1N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  30/1800Z 20.7N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 21.9N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 24.5N  50.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 27.5N  52.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cheese007]

We have Tropical Storm Kate as of 9:30

[ldub23]

They are seriously  calling that totally  devoid  of  convection thing a tropical storm. They really are trying to jack up numbers.

 

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Kate Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

...KATE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was 
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 50.9 West.  Kate is 
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with 
a slight decrease in forward speed is expected through early 
Tuesday. Then, a northwestward motion is forecast through midweek. 

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are forecast during 
the next couple of days.  Some slow strengthening is possible by 
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center in the eastern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

The low-level center of Kate is exposed in visible satellite imagery
this afternoon. Its deep convection collapsed late this morning, and
the sheared tropical cyclone is now only producing a small area of
convection over 60 n mi east of its center. A partial 1321 UTC
ASCAT-B pass still showed numerous 30-kt wind vectors in the eastern
semicircle, even with little to no active convection. The initial
intensity is conservatively lowered to 35 kt for this advisory.

The subtropical jet stream across the central Atlantic will continue
to impart strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear on Kate
during the next day or so. If the struggling tropical cyclone can
survive these hostile conditions, some modest strengthening could
occur later this week over warm SSTs of 28 deg C or so. However, the
lack of mid-level moisture in the surrounding environment may limit
convective development even under these more favorable conditions,
and there is no guarantee that Kate will survive that long. In fact,
simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kate
may continue to only produce sporadic bursts of convection over the
next couple of days, which jeopardizes its chances of surviving
through the week. The official NHC intensity forecast has been
adjusted downward based on the latest guidance trends and the
uncertainties discussed above. Minor fluctuations in intensity could
occur over the next 24-36 h as convective pulsing causes the
cyclone's intensity to hover around tropical-storm-force strength.

Kate is moving a little faster toward the north, or 355/9 kt, within
a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A northward motion is expected
to continue through early Tuesday. The subtropical ridge is expected
to become reestablished over the central Atlantic Tuesday night into
Wednesday, which should turn Kate toward the northwest through
midweek. Thereafter, Kate is forecast to accelerate northward or
north-northeastward ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough that
will move across the western Atlantic late this week. Assuming Kate
is still around by day 5, the cyclone is forecast to become absorbed
by a larger extratropical low near Atlantic Canada.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 22.7N  50.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 23.7N  50.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 24.7N  50.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 25.8N  51.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 27.0N  52.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 28.4N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 30.1N  54.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 34.5N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[ldub23]

Totally  mystified as to why it was  named.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Totally  mystified as to why it was  named.

Of course you are.  You don't read. 

[ldub23]

13 hours ago, Rjay said:

Of course you are.  You don't read. 

Still dont think "it" deserved to be  named.