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SVR nw portion off the NYC subforum 5P-9P Sunday 8/1/21 weakening as sct-bkn heavy shwrs nr NYC ~10P-midnight.


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SPC 854A upgrade -slight expansion D1 attached.


   Scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop
   from late morning through the afternoon along/ahead of the cold
   front -- first in northern/western portions of the region, then
   spreading/expanding eastward.  Sporadic damaging winds and isolated
   severe gusts/hail are possible.  While magnitude of damaging gusts
   should be mostly subsevere to marginally severe, given the lack of
   both greater moisture/buoyancy and low-level flow, the expected
   dense coverage of convection may result in enough events to justify
   a 15%/categorical upgrade to wind probabilities at this time.

   Convection will be supported by a combination of weak MLCINH,
   diurnal heating, modest but adequate low-level moisture, boundary-
   layer convergence near the front and low, and large-scale lift aloft
   ahead of the shortwave trough.  Moist advection should increase
   surface dew points over most of this area to the upper 50s and low
   60s F.  This will contribute to MLCAPE mainly in the 300-800 J/kg
   range.  Strong mid/upper (anvil-level) winds will aid in
   organization, though low-level flow will remain too weak to enlarge
   hodographs appreciably.  Well-mixed sub cloud layers will aid in
   localized strong-severe gust potential, until evening stabilization
   of the boundary layer removes enough low-level CAPE/lapse rates to
   weaken convection substantially with proximity to the Mid-Atlantic
   Coast and western New England.


Screen Shot 2021-08-01 at 9.12.28 AM.png

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  • wdrag changed the title to SVR nw portion off the NYC subforum 5P-9P Sunday 8/1/21 weakening as sct-bkn heavy shwrs nr NYC ~10P-midnight.
  • IrishRob17 pinned this topic

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