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Mountain West Discussion

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On 7/18/2020 at 4:10 PM, mayjawintastawm said:

So far for my comet viewing, it's been smoky or cloudy up in the western sky the last 4 days in a row till after 11 PM. No letup in sight with afternoon and evening (mainly dry) convection. Thinking about driving up over the foothills to get a glimpse at some point.

I also have not been able to see the comet. I am bordering on being very mad at the weather

Tornado warning near the small towns of Paoli and Haxtun, Colorado

AWgU0fO.jpg

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I got in pictures of the sunset tonight and last night. Tonight, I finally saw the comet. It seems to be about 10 degrees below the cup of the big dipper. It's a little bit visible to the naked eye, and I used binoculars.

edit: by the way, we could get scattered thunderstorms tomorrow, with dew points possibly up around 60. Maybe there will be something near Denver.

ItUQdEf.jpg

 

Aur0RCb.jpg

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Cool, glad you finally got to see it.  It has dimmed quite a bit over the past two days.  Even out here in my dark skies, last night I had to use averted vision to find it.

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I saw it quite dimly with binoculars only last night- but it was hazy and there was so much diffracted light from Denver that I could barely even make out the Big Dipper with the naked eye.

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Today, I got to see the comet again. Skies were more hazy in the afternoon and evening due to humidity. To the north, there was this:

V7eJtmb.jpg

 

nVj5GIE.jpg

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Good news: it looks like the Southwest monsoon is kicking into gear, with models and model ensembles showing much higher precipitation over the next 7-10 days along the AZ/NM border and into Colorado.

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Tonight, there were some rain showers to my west at 6:00-7:00, then a lot of the clouds cleared away at about 8:00. Then, I tried to look for the comet at 9:00-9:30, but some patchy altocumulus were blocking the view.

Tomorrow, models have a chance of showers and thunderstorms near here. Apparently the driving factor will be high precipitable water, but not high CAPE.

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Rain, clouds and humidity really broke the heat here - lots of days in the 80s now.

Dew points over 60 - which always feels super weird and humid here.

Month is on target to be near the 93.5F forecast I had for Albuquerque in July.

The CFS continues to trend to a wet/cold August for NM, CO, AZ, and UT - it's been a while since that has happened down here, so I'd love to see it.

 

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My place has had minor rainfall over the past few days. My total for the month may be around 0.14"-0.20". July 22, an evening storm with light-moderate rain, 0.02" and little lightning. July 24th, trace to 0.01". July 25th,  0.03" or 0.04". July 26th, possibly another trace to 0.06". Tonight (July 26th) the clouds cleared away, and I could see Comet Neowise through binoculars. It has moved up and to the left of where I saw it a few days ago. I could barely see the comet's tail with binoculars. I think this may be the last time I get a look at it, if it is getting dimmer, and if there are a few more days of evening clouds. 

Interesting note. I was checking the satellite images today, and the GOES-16 data feeds seem to have disappeared from about  2:36PM to 9:15PM. I don't know exactly what happened. I'm glad this didn't happen yesterday, because most of the USA was interested the satellite images of Hurricane Hanna. 

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1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

This supposed monsoon is more of a non-soon

Last year was really a nonsoon. This past weekend had hints, but likely short-lived. Tomorrow is one more chance.

Last really decent monsoon was about 4 years ago. I know, Eastern CO never gets it reliably, but we do usually get some rain. This year just hurts more because the usual May-June wet period was REALLY nonexistent. We didn't even really have a single significant hail event (1" or greater) at my house.

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As of today Fort Collins sits at .11” for July.  Barring any additional rain the next few days, this would make July 2020 the third driest July in recorded weather history - with 1939 being the driest (0) and 1931 and 2002 tied for second (.07).

Last week at this time it looked promising that the SW monsoon might kick into gear - we all know how that’s turned out :thumbsdown:.  As others here have posted the 2020 SW monsoon is a flop, at least in northern CO.

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The monsoon has brought colder temperatures and near daily rain here as of late, but we remain below average in most spots for July rain. The CFS has trended NM/CO drier and warmer since a few days ago, but still has Arizona pretty wet for the month. Albuquerque actually had a lot of rain in June, so the June-July total here for rain will be pretty normal (near 2.0" is normal, and we're near that now).

I'm actually a bit more optimistic for December now, we started July with top five warmth, but we're going to finish relatively near average for how warm the month started. As late as 7/15 or so the high here was about 97F, but it's going to finish right around where I had it, 93.5F or so for the month.

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Lot of haves and have nots in CO- this is from Weather5280: we got just under 0.2" last few days, so mostly in the have nots, like FoCo. Crazy storm in Yuma County and just over the border in NE, with 10"+ verified on the ground. Smack on US 34- I wonder if anyone got pics.

precip_7d_accum_colorado_2020072712.png

 

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57 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Lot of haves and have nots in CO- this is from Weather5280: we got just under 0.2" last few days, so mostly in the have nots, like FoCo. Crazy storm in Yuma County and just over the border in NE, with 10"+ verified on the ground. Smack on US 34- I wonder if anyone got pics.

precip_7d_accum_colorado_2020072712.png

Interesting - thanks for sharing this map.  Glad there are least some haves in the region.  Where I am in the Foothills a 10” would cause serious flooding so I don’t wish for that.  Right now I would be thrilled with 1/10 of that tho.  

What I read on Bouldercast yesterday was very discouraging though: high pressure will likely re-build to the southwest of CO effectively shutting off any monsoon flow northwards.  It seems that kind of puts the nail in the coffin of the 2020 SW monsoon.  RIP, I barely knew ya :mellow:.

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The monsoon has brought colder temperatures and near daily rain here as of late, but we remain below average in most spots for July rain. The CFS has trended NM/CO drier and warmer since a few days ago, but still has Arizona pretty wet for the month. Albuquerque actually had a lot of rain in June, so the June-July total here for rain will be pretty normal (near 2.0" is normal, and we're near that now).

I'm actually a bit more optimistic for December now, we started July with top five warmth, but we're going to finish relatively near average for how warm the month started. As late as 7/15 or so the high here was about 97F, but it's going to finish right around where I had it, 93.5F or so for the month.

Thanks Raindance.  That’s the way it goes - the models giveth and then the models taketh away.  I should learn not to get bent out of shape about model runs but I seem to anyway.  It just seems more often than not the cooler/wetter runs do not verify, and the drier/warm ones do....

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2 hours ago, finnster said:

Thanks Raindance.  That’s the way it goes - the models giveth and then the models taketh away.  I should learn not to get bent out of shape about model runs but I seem to anyway.  It just seems more often than not the cooler/wetter runs do not verify, and the drier/warm ones do....

This was like it was in 2012 (though 2012 was hotter- 95 felt like a respite at times). Then there were a couple years that were cooler and wetter, almost enough to make you forget. The really weird thing about this year has been the abrupt change: how much snow we got and how cold early April was, before everything turned on a dime.

 

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Finally!  We had a very nice storm roll thru around 615pm this evening. My guage logged .3" in less than 15 minutes.  Not a huge total, but I will take it.

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On July 26th, my area had a trace to 0.01". On July 28th, we had clouds and sprinkles early afternoon, then sunny, then we had some rain and weak thunder at 6:45 - 7:15PM. It was about 0.01" to 0.10", possibly higher in areas of Loveland. Then, we had a partly sunny sunset, with very orange clouds, and some of the rain to the east was highlighted with orange light. I might have been able to see the stars and the comet after sunset, but I didn't really look.

For far western areas-- the Phoenix area and the Columbia River (interior desert) area both have Excessive Heat Warnings soon, with temperatures up to 109 at the Columbia River.

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I guess we shouldn’t be surprised by this lack of precipitation .  Almost the entire state is now in some level of drought, some of it pretty severe....

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Yesterday, my area had a high of 80 and a rainfall of 0.18" with a few moments of lightning/thunder/heavy rain. So that brings my monthly rain to about 0.44", which is not as pathetic as I might have thought, but still pretty low.

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Some very heavy rain moved through here recently. CFS and Canadian both have August warm/dry for the entire West. I'm a bit skeptical, but we'll see. I think there should be pretty powerful (for August) cold fronts by the end of the month.

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Three good storms have rolled thru here this evening.  The 3rd is still ongoing with very frequent cloud to ground lightning, and I am showing .61" inches so far for the day. It has been three days in a row of decent precip up here.

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On 7/24/2020 at 12:33 AM, raindancewx said:

Rain, clouds and humidity really broke the heat here - lots of days in the 80s now.

Dew points over 60 - which always feels super weird and humid here.

Month is on target to be near the 93.5F forecast I had for Albuquerque in July.

The CFS continues to trend to a wet/cold August for NM, CO, AZ, and UT - it's been a while since that has happened down here, so I'd love to see it.

 

Just about a week ago CFS was trending to a wet/cold cold August for the southwest, and now they are saying the entire west will be warm/dry for August.  So what is to be believed now?  I’m sorry I do not place a lot of stock in the longer range models :(

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Yesterday (7/31) I was jogging at about 7:30, and I saw that Long's Peak in the distance looked like a slightly dark silhouette on a background of yellow light, below a dark cloud. It was raining in between me and Long's Peak.

Today (8/1) my area had a thunderstorm in mid-afternoon. It looked like there was a decent hailstorm was northwest of Fort Collins at about 7:20PM. That storm weakened considerably as it approached Loveland.

Edit: I got 0.35" for the day. I'm not sure if much of this fell at nighttime. That's almost as much as last month.

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I really can't complain about how July ended and August started up here. 4 days in a row now of good storms. Logged another .12" late last evening.  Today looks to have potential for some heavier rain.

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There is a large severe thunderstorm watch up for the entire CO and WY Front Range, so far, after 4 hours, there are exactly zero storm reports. Radar is looking mighty sparse.

On a brighter note, I got a home weather station for my birthday last week, to replace one that’s been beaten up over the past several years (Anemometer broken by hail and a tree fell on the rain gauge). Need to go up on the roof and install it!

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