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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You already know how this ends up lol.

We will, however, have our third straight cold/dry weekend following another mild week. Rinse and repeat, :)

Image tagged in off with his head - Imgflip

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15 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s going to happen a day too late. You know it. 

Let's not forget about the 20 degree temperature plunge just as the precip moves off shore and out to sea.  Followed by partly cloudy and windy with blowing and drifting trash here in the streets of Essex.

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The CFS is not a reliable model. I think we all know that by now.  Never place any confidence in the forecast for the next month until we get to the very end of the current month we are in and even then it is not very useful.  It was portraying a very cold March but as Don mentions it is slowly doing what it has done every month so far this winter which is turn warmer . 

Simply focus on the AO and the NAO state and you will have a much better idea about any winter weather potential  in our area. 

From Don S update a short while ago

 

<<

 

Morning thoughts...

 

1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°.

 

2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°.

 

3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong.

 

4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region.

 

The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region.

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19 minutes ago, frd said:

 

The CFS is not a reliable model. I think we all know that by now.  Never place any confidence in the forecast for the next month until we get to the very end of the current month we are in and even then it is not very useful.  It was portraying a very cold March but as Don mentions it is slowly doing what it has done every month so far this winter which is turn warmer . 

Simply focus on the AO and the NAO state and you will have a much better idea about any winter weather potential  in our area. 

From Don S update a short while ago

 

<<

 

Morning thoughts...

 

1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°.

 

2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°.

 

3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong.

 

4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region.

 

The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region.

The only time I even look at the CFS is when it came up in discussion. It’s useless. But simply using the AO isn’t going to work past a week since the current AO doesn’t have much predictability past a few days. It can flip quickly sometimes. Now certain patterns that create stable feedback loops like the current pac/AO combo can suggest persistence. But simply using the AO value to predict the next week/month is risky. 

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CFS did get the AO/NAO right. It was persistently showing blue up top leading into winter, and continued that look. It failed miserably with the EPO. Even after the Pac pattern emerged and became stable, the CFS kept insisting on a big EPO ridge delivering cross polar flow, with a trough in the east. It has been playing catch up over the last month.

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CFS did get the AO/NAO right. It was persistently showing blue up top leading into winter, and continued that look. It failed miserably with the EPO. Even after the Pac pattern emerged and became stable, the CFS kept insisting on a big EPO ridge delivering cross polar flow, with a trough in the east. It has been playing catch up over the last month.

Yea I nailed that the sun would come up this morning...everything else is details. 

I’m being a smart ass of course and you’re right but in my experience the cfs gets the whole picture correct so infrequently, and is so god awful with major pattern drivers like the mjo, that it’s useless. 

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So the obvious issues of the pac and AO have been covered...but there are transient troughs making it into the east now due to shortening wavelengths and that’s our “fluke chance”. But another issue muting those odds is that the next 2 troughs (on guidance at least) amplify and stall to our north and do not progress east. It’s much harder to get a follow up system to amplify under a system than behind it. It’s not leaving enough space.  Then when the trough lifts it does so quickly and to the north instead of a progressing east which also limits the chance of a WAA wave on the tail of any cold shot. That progression is the fabled warm wet cold dry we love so much. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Hints of the tpv breaking down at the end of the gfs. Just in time for our 37 degree epic perfect track phased bomb rainstorm 

Your 960s bomb showed up on the Gfs around 300 hr except it  wasn't off OC lol

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Your 960s bomb showed up on the Gfs around 300 hr except it  wasn't off OC lol

No we will get 2-3 teases where it is cold enough but storms track just to our west as the pattern transitions.   Then exactly when it’s simply too late to work we will get the totally perfect coastal bomb that would have been 50” if it was one week sooner but will just be rain mixed with just enough slush bombs to make it hurt more. 

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55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve never been more sure of anything. The one thing we are great at is epic fail. 

And AN temps.  We over perform.  Can’t forget that.  I bet 80% of the CPC 6-10 or 8-14 day outlooks are orange hue at any given time over our region.  

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve never been more sure of anything. The one thing we are great at is epic fail. 

Even in the best of patterns it seems defeat is always ready to be snatched from the jaws of victory. I’m an old Brooklyn Dodger fan “ wait till next year” is an easy mantra. As always ....

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Hints of the tpv breaking down at the end of the gfs. Just in time for our 37 degree epic perfect track phased bomb rainstorm 

Layin the troll jelly on thick today, aren't ya? Lol

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Absolutely! Make sure our lawn mowers are workable cuz we be mowin soon

was hoping id get to use the new tractor in the snow this year which never happened.  At least I will be using the new tractor with the new 72" john deere finishing mower sooner rather than later.

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This winter has been dead since early December. All that has kept the fires burning is weenie denial, plain and simple.
We never made it to within 6 days of a snowstorm

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:
36 minutes ago, PhineasC said:
This winter has been dead since early December. All that has kept the fires burning is weenie denial, plain and simple.

We never made it to within 6 days of a snowstorm

We may never see another winter like this.All bad all the time.  No hope or even the hint of anything wintry.  I bet even Jon Jon up in Davis WV has had a miserable season.  

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25 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

unless you use a crab grass preventive in march

Exactly. And spring grass can’t survive any dry period in the summer. Has to be watered. September is by far the best grass planting month. 

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19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We may never see another winter like this.All bad all the time.  No hope or even the hint of anything wintry.  I bet even Jon Jon up in Davis WV has had a miserable season.  

For me this winter is nothing like the period from late 1989 through Dec of 1992. It was like I lived in southern Georgia.

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Put it down now, you will have great results
Not really. Wait until fall. If you put it down now you will get results like this past winter....you wont get anything growing. Plus May will be 105° and kill most of the new growth

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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