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Roger Smith

Winter snowfall discussion (not a contest this year)

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I have been posting winter snowfall contests here for several years, just can't really get into the mood of it this winter for some unknown reason. I am hoping to be away for a large chunk of time later in the winter which may be one reason. Maybe some other more active member of the sub-forum would like to run a contest. But rather than just dropping it entirely, why not compare notes on expectations. 

I think the winter will be quite productive (again) in this region and the sweet spot relative to normal may not be far from an axis running NE-SW through Chicago. The current rather cold pattern in the east seems likely to persist for a while then retrogress in mid-winter, placing the storm track just about over the Midwest and central Great Lakes. 

So I'm expecting maybe 50-60 inches of snow total in ORD and 40-50 for DTW, higher amounts but not necessarily higher compared to normal to the north of ORD to APN. A significant amount of that may have already happened. 

Probably a rather average lake effect sort of outcome with long intervals not suitable and a few periods very heavy. 

I think this might be a winter with relatively mild intervals at the core and a return to colder than normal in March-April, prolonging the season. 

What are you expecting? 

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I'm always a bit on the fence this time of year, but i think in the end it will be an above average snow season, just seems like too much stuff pointing to that. Obviously we are off to a banner start, with several snowfalls in late October and early November in the Western part of the sub, then the historic (for November) Veterans Day snowstorm in Detroit. However now that we are in a lull, and the next few weeks looks a bit boring outside of the far North, the usual doubts and worries creep in. But bottom line, theres still 5 more months of snow to come so I'm sure a lot of fun and probably some frustration lies ahead. Let it snow!

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Yeah, after all it's "winter cancel season" lol. With all the stellar analog seasons, both recent and long past, it will be a truly epic fail if this turns turd for S MW/GL's/OHV. Bill Deedler's outlook (focused on SEMI ofc) contains an analog list that leans "yesteryear", but man what a list. We are talking winters of yore for cold, snow totals, and strong storms/blizzards. Now, if you also allow for the fact that many of those seasons 40-100+ yrs ago did not benefit from the current high-moisture era, the potential for an incredible season is lurking in there for at least some portion of our Sub.  Roger likes Chicago, and indeed Deedler's list contains 78-79. Others like the SST's and blob alignment to reflect 2013-14, while others would go 02-03 putting the bonanza zone a bit further S and E in the OHV. A combination of those (3) analogs mixed with others that featured more dynamic storms is my personal vision of the winter ahead. I'm not into trying to predict actual snowfall amounts, but I do like our Sub for an above to well above normal snowfall winter. If pressed, I'd lean towards an ORD to DTW winner's circle with DTW edging ORD in the positive departures column. 

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I really don’t have any thoughts making me think my state, MI, will be snowier/not or colder/warmer then normal this winter other then thinking everything “averages” out over time normally. Playing the average out with time game would have me thinking south east MI “should” have a little more snow then normal with average temps. Probably snow around the holidays to make up for last year even though Christmas of 2017 was incredibly snowy at my house in the southern Thumb area. Northern MI has really been a different situation though, the snow belts have been averaging about normal snow the past 20 years but outside the main snow belts it’s been a different story. Our place up north, 10 miles south of Grayling, averages about 90” of snow per season, 9 out of the past 19 seasons have been below average, 9 have been about average with only 1 season, 2008-2009, being above average. To say the non main snow belt areas are due for a above average snow season would be a understatement. Is this the new normal up there? Maybe but I feel northern MI is probably due for a above normal snow season with about average to slightly above temps. Just my thoughts as a weather observer for nearly 50 years, not a professional meteorologist.

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On ‎12‎/‎9‎/‎2019 at 1:54 PM, slow poke said:

I really don’t have any thoughts making me think my state, MI, will be snowier/not or colder/warmer then normal this winter other then thinking everything “averages” out over time normally. Playing the average out with time game would have me thinking south east MI “should” have a little more snow then normal with average temps. Probably snow around the holidays to make up for last year even though Christmas of 2017 was incredibly snowy at my house in the southern Thumb area. Northern MI has really been a different situation though, the snow belts have been averaging about normal snow the past 20 years but outside the main snow belts it’s been a different story. Our place up north, 10 miles south of Grayling, averages about 90” of snow per season, 9 out of the past 19 seasons have been below average, 9 have been about average with only 1 season, 2008-2009, being above average. To say the non main snow belt areas are due for a above average snow season would be a understatement. Is this the new normal up there? Maybe but I feel northern MI is probably due for a above normal snow season with about average to slightly above temps. Just my thoughts as a weather observer for nearly 50 years, not a professional meteorologist.

Man did I ever crap the bed with some of these predictions. I promise guys no more long range predictions from me, I'll leave them for the professionals. I couldn't have been more wrong about the "snow around the holidays" statement and was definitely wrong about the whole "average temps" stuff. Depending how the next 2 months go up north I "might" be close to having a ok forecast for up there. They would have to really start getting some decent snow storms to close out the winter season though which can definitely happen up there but who knows.     

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11 minutes ago, slow poke said:

Man did I ever crap the bed with some of these predictions. I promise guys no more long range predictions from me, I'll leave them for the professionals. I couldn't have been more wrong about the "snow around the holidays" statement and was definitely wrong about the whole "average temps" stuff. Depending how the next 2 months go up north I "might" be close to having a ok forecast for up there. They would have to really start getting some decent snow storms to close out the winter season though which can definitely happen up there but who knows.     

Most people had horrible forecasts. SE MI may end up with a little more snow than avg, thats definitely still on the table...but LOL at normal temps and snow around the holidays, i wish!

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