Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,415
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Landia_Copeland
    Newest Member
    Landia_Copeland
    Joined

Recommended Posts

Next big wave of heat is arriving to the eastern Nino zones from below now.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

The SOI is around -6.5 for March. Looks like some positive and negative days are coming by 3/31 so it won't change too much. Similar JFM periods, tentatively -

July-June Jan Feb Mar Top Match
2002 -2.0 -9.3 -6.6 5.6
1989 -1.9 -18.4 -8.2 5.8
1972 -3.6 -15.0 -0.3 8.0
1952 1.6 -7.1 -6.0 11.6
1947 -3.6 -3.7 -4.6 14.2
1977 -3.6 -26.9 -6.0 14.2
2009 -8.3 -18.2 -10.8 14.2

Something like this blend works pretty well for where March is now.

July-Jun Jan Feb Mar
1989 -1.9 -18.4 -8.2
1972 -3.6 -15.0 -0.3
2009 -8.3 -18.2 -10.8
1952 1.6 -7.1 -6.0
Blend -3.1 -14.7 -6.3
2018 -2.2 -14.6 -6.5

Also, it is close to what the CFS shows for April.

D2cbcfYU4AEQn0f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 06MAR2019     26.8 0.5     27.8 0.9     28.0 1.0     29.1 0.9
 13MAR2019     27.1 0.7     27.7 0.7     28.1 1.0     29.0 0.8
 20MAR2019     26.6 0.2     28.1 0.9     28.4 1.1     29.1 0.9

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

AVwHeg3.png

Subsurface heat transition for Jan, Feb, Mar is most similar to early 1990. Below surface heat of +1.5 as I've estimated for March would be third warmest in March since 1979. Anything above +1.6 is the warmest March since 1979 but going by the image, doesn't look like we hit that.

Year Jan Feb Mar Distance
2019 0.76 1.10 1.50 0.00
1990 0.78 1.08 1.14 0.40
1997 0.56 1.00 1.17 0.63
2015 0.15 0.83 1.52 0.90
2005 0.52 0.59 1.27 0.98
2010 1.14 1.24 0.97 1.05
2002 0.95 0.78 0.55 1.46

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I'm seriously questioning the continuation of El Nino with today's subsurface, cold making it to 120W, and +2 at 150Evscold 180-170

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gif

Believe who was monitoring this site retired?I can't remember his name but i'd use caution using this site.

wkteq_xz gif  680×880 .png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't understand this. 

The two graphs for actual temperature look pretty similar, but the anomaly graphs are very different.   Can someone please help me understand how that happens?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SOI finished March at -6.5, listed some SOI analogs back on 3/24

CFS currently has a very warm April nationally with some weakness in the heat in the West. Canadian should be out later today with another idea for April and a new read on the El Nino.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Believe who was monitoring this site retired?I can't remember his name but i'd use caution using this site.

 

It's correct. I wouldn't doubt some colder waters popping up in the eastern regions in a few months. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The new Canadian run has a very warm US in April like the CFS does. It continues the current El Nino into next winter, which is a warmer forecast than before. Eastern US trended much drier for April too.

Ahdzhvz.png

hpzpLvg.png

BsApuNN.png

The CPC cool zone is right where Nino 3.4 March SSTs are strongest as a cool signal for April temps. Nino 3.4 was likely around 28.2C in March, pretty warm.

5q8Tiro.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
March in Nino 3.4 is likely +1.0C - about 28.2C (CPC uses 27.2C as average in Nino 3.4 in March)
                
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 27FEB2019     26.6 0.4     27.6 1.0     28.0 1.1     29.2 1.1
 06MAR2019     26.8 0.5     27.8 0.9     28.0 1.0     29.1 0.9
 13MAR2019     27.1 0.7     27.7 0.7     28.1 1.0     29.0 0.8
 20MAR2019     26.6 0.2     28.1 0.9     28.4 1.1     29.1 0.9
 27MAR2019     25.9-0.2     27.9 0.7     28.4 1.0     29.1 0.9

Subsurface heat is declining again now, but +1.42 in March - third highest since 1979. The look on the weeklies now is the most "Modoki" look since Fall.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Warm Nino 3.4 March is a strong warm signal in the SE in July. These are the 28.0C-28.4C Nino 3.4 Marches since 1950:

2010
1966
1958
1987

Not an exact match, but it looks close to the correlation blend for temps. I'll post my Summer Outlook on here in mid-May once I get a sense of what April does.

onuZPMF.png

bHGiKVz.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AO will finish above 1.00 for February and March.. The last 2 times that happened were 2015 and 1997, 2 Strongest Nino's. 1982, the third Strongest, was two months above 0.97. 

89-90 and 90-91 did and they both had -SOI or -NOI something characteristics of the phase.. 67-68 is the other example and that was a Weak Nino. Two months above 0.9 includes 02-03 which was Moderate El Nino, and 92-93 which I consider a Weak Nino (subsurface). 8/8 had something-characteristics-aspects of the phase in my opinion. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Going into next year, it will be interesting to see what the sun does. On a y/y basis, monthly sunspots were up by 7 in March, after being up in November and January. There has not been a double El Nino with low solar activity each time since 1952-53/1953-54, or 1913-14/1914-15 depending on what criteria you use for an El Nino. My threshold for low solar activity is a July-Jun average of 50 sunspots or less, that seems to be the threshold when effects show up if you use a ROC predictive analysis for false positives/false negatives.

Also, its been interesting looking at snow anomalies this year v. in a standard El Nino -

D3G1RKGVsAA7PYH.png

Image result for el nino snow pattern

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The subsurface warmth below the surface may be weakening some with the warmth surfacing now. My hunch is by the official metrics we stay in El Nino territory into June or so, and then stay in Neutral. I don't have a good sense for next winter yet.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8
2019 0.8 0.8

 

El Nino is official. March was 28.13C, +0.93C using the CPC standard. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

2018   9   27.19   26.80    0.39
2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.86
2018  11   27.61   26.75    0.86
2018  12   27.49   26.65    0.84
2019   1   27.21   26.45    0.76
2019   2   27.49   26.66    0.83
2019   3   28.14   27.21    0.93

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is a new MEI data set out there now, for anyone interested since Klaus Wolter retired.

SOI should see a big drop in the next few days if the Euro MSLP forecasts are right. The -NAO forecast over the next few days is a fairly strong cold signal for cold in New Mexico in June, and the West generally in May.

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37
4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84
3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25
2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50
1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52

D3buWoUUEAURNTN.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 06FEB2019     25.9 0.3     26.5 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.0 0.8
 13FEB2019     26.6 0.6     26.8 0.5     27.3 0.6     29.0 0.9
 20FEB2019     26.4 0.2     27.0 0.5     27.5 0.7     29.1 1.0
 27FEB2019     26.6 0.4     27.6 1.0     28.0 1.1     29.2 1.1
 06MAR2019     26.8 0.5     27.8 0.9     28.0 1.0     29.1 0.9
 13MAR2019     27.1 0.7     27.7 0.7     28.1 1.0     29.0 0.8
 20MAR2019     26.6 0.2     28.1 0.9     28.4 1.1     29.1 0.9
 27MAR2019     25.9-0.2     27.9 0.7     28.4 1.0     29.1 0.9
 03APR2019     25.9 0.0     28.2 0.8     28.5 0.9     29.1 0.8

El Nino through at least FMA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big SOI drop recently. Drop is comparable to the one ahead of the Blizzard of 1993

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
10 Apr 2019 1012.52 1010.15 -0.15 -1.13 -5.38
9 Apr 2019 1013.55 1008.80 17.01 -1.68 -5.46
8 Apr 2019 1013.87 1008.10 24.37 -2.65 -5.67
7 Apr 2019 1013.79 1009.80 11.53 -3.68 -5.94
6 Apr 2019 1014.01 1009.70 13.84 -4.09 -6.12
5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37
4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84
3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25
2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50
1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kt7fIcK.png

European April run is pretty confident on El Nino continuing (above black line) into July, but doesn't have a good read on what will happen after - either rapid weakening or re-strengthening.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 06MAR2019     26.8 0.5     27.8 0.9     28.0 1.0     29.1 0.9
 13MAR2019     27.1 0.7     27.7 0.7     28.1 1.0     29.0 0.8
 20MAR2019     26.6 0.2     28.1 0.9     28.4 1.1     29.1 0.9
 27MAR2019     25.9-0.2     27.9 0.7     28.4 1.0     29.1 0.9
 03APR2019     25.9 0.0     28.2 0.8     28.5 0.9     29.1 0.8
 10APR2019     25.8 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.9     29.2 0.8

Still solidly in El Nino territory. That said, the warmth below the surface is thinning rapidly now and some cool water is showing up. I'm in the camp that this event stays above the +0.5C threshold at the surface longer than most El Ninos, into June or July, but not convinced it lasts after that. Could redevelop in Fall, but I think we're about due for an extended Neutral period, we'll see.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×