Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,389
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    crossbowftw3
    Newest Member
    crossbowftw3
    Joined
Chinook

Mountain West Discussion

Recommended Posts

13 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

Looks pretty wet in Utah the next week. My location should finish with 1.5-3" by Saturday. 

I hope that works out alright. The NWS WPC plots show 1.0" to about 2.0" for foothill locations near the cities of Utah, in the short term. As for Colorado, we should have a chance for rain on Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The models show snow in Wyoming, Montana, and western North Dakota on Monday. (ECMWF is relatively close to the GFS on this 7-day forecast)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/1/2018 at 11:02 PM, Chinook said:

I hope that works out alright. The NWS WPC plots show 1.0" to about 2.0" for foothill locations near the cities of Utah, in the short term. As for Colorado, we should have a chance for rain on Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The models show snow in Wyoming, Montana, and western North Dakota on Monday. (ECMWF is relatively close to the GFS on this 7-day forecast)

I've had 1.01" so far in the last 3 days. Should get another 1/2" or so tonight, and some additional rain Sat night-Sun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎9‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 7:25 PM, snowfan789 said:

Is your prediction about Denver’s winter just based on your gut sense or instead based on an actual correlation between Albuquerque vs Denver temps in September and Denver winter precipitation and/or temps? I live close to Denver and am not enthused by how warm the past few weeks have been but am unaware of evidence showing that this merits hitting the panic button. Denver has had plenty of snowy winters after snowless Septembers: http://www.thorntonweather.com/noaa/snow.php

 

Long-range forecasts are pretty dicey, but I don't think it is going out on much of a limb to think Colorado's upcoming winter will trend toward warm and dry.  I certainly hope that is NOT the case, but have not heard or seen of any indications to the contrary.  I have been holding out hope for a long time that the AMO will switch to a cold phase (it teases in that direction once in a while and then trends back warm).  If it does switch to cold long-term that could be a game changer.  Also hoping for the 'right' type of El Nino (east-based) to form this year to bring copious amounts of moisture into the western US - now El Nino does not seem to be materializing and if it does, will probably be weak and the 'wrong' type to benefit Colorado much.  Can't seem to catch a break.

Having said all that, the past couple of winters in Colorado have really been sub-par.  Denver has had two consecutive winters of less than 30" of snow.  And we all know what the mountains experienced this past winter.  You would think SOMETHING has to change to at least give us a little more cold and snow and remind us that we do have winter in these parts....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

I've had 1.01" so far in the last 3 days. Should get another 1/2" or so tonight, and some additional rain Sat night-Sun. 

Glad to see Utah is getting some precip - that must be great to see!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎10‎/‎1‎/‎2018 at 11:02 PM, Chinook said:

I hope that works out alright. The NWS WPC plots show 1.0" to about 2.0" for foothill locations near the cities of Utah, in the short term. As for Colorado, we should have a chance for rain on Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The models show snow in Wyoming, Montana, and western North Dakota on Monday. (ECMWF is relatively close to the GFS on this 7-day forecast)

Not working out for northern CO so far.  At my location northwest of Fort Collins we're currently at 70 days without significant precip (> .25").  We're either too far north, too far south, too far east, or too far west to catch any storms.  We've run out of directions to miss storms from :wacko:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep up the hope. My last 0.25" in Loveland was Aug 18-19. overall 0.14" in Loveland in September, and about 0.53" in Fort Collins in September. Today, we had some rain for maybe 1/2 hour, and one rumble of thunder.

 

Western areas should get 1.0" to 2.0". Front Range areas should get 0.5" to 1.0"

GFOZx1T.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, finnster said:

Not working out for northern CO so far.  At my location northwest of Fort Collins we're currently at 70 days without significant precip (> .25").  We're either too far north, too far south, too far east, or too far west to catch any storms.  We've run out of directions to miss storms from :wacko:

I guess you could have a cirrus storm to bring storm misses in from the Z-axis :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ended up raining quite a bit last night with several thunderstorms. My total for October 2-5th is 2.09". A friend of mine nearby had 2.89", but the airport only managed 1.22".

Some weak lake effect rain showers were noted earlier this morning but clearing out now. It was fun to finally have some action after about 40 dry days in a row and only 2 meaningful storms before this since mid June. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The models are showing that Hurricane Sergio will make landfall on the Mexican coast, and the moisture will continue onward to New Mexico. This particular GFS run is probably over-doing the pressure in New Mexico. There should be a trough somewhere in the northwest or northern Rockies at this time, but details are uncertain. This particular 1-week forecast makes it seem like maybe some sort of super-snowstorm will converge upon Colorado, but it won't. But the thing to really take away from this is that some more drought-busting rain is likely in New Mexico. 

hFj4T0d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Chinook said:

The models are showing that Hurricane Sergio will make landfall on the Mexican coast, and the moisture will continue onward to New Mexico. This particular GFS run is probably over-doing the pressure in New Mexico. There should be a trough somewhere in the northwest or northern Rockies at this time, but details are uncertain. This particular 1-week forecast makes it seem like maybe some sort of super-snowstorm will converge upon Colorado, but it won't. But the thing to really take away from this is that some more drought-busting rain is likely in New Mexico. 

hFj4T0d.png

Long-term, heavy rain here in Aug+Oct seems to be an indicator that the following March will be stormy in the SW, usually snowy, so I hope this verifies. The timing of heaviest monsoon precipitation (July v Aug) shows some meaningful (p<0.05) variation with solar conditions here as far as August goes, and I think October is pretty sensitive to the PDO state. PDO values near 0 often do favor heavy October rain here. Almost all of the top March snow events here since 1976 have the MJO in phase 2/3 in March, which also seems to be an indicator that ties loosely to Aug+Oct precipitation. August & October as a single unit have not been wet (2.7"+/+15%) here since 2006, so it is way, way over due.

We've never had four inches of snow in Albuquerque going back to 1931 in a year with low-solar activity, El Nino or not, NAO phase be damned, regardless of PDO or AMO changes. Even 3" is like a 3% event in low-solar years. But it happens far more frequently in high solar years - 30%. An El Nino, with low solar, but a lot of rain in Aug+Oct implies a wet March to me. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some wet snowflakes mixing with the rain here in the S Metro, 40 F. Radar shows oranges and a little red over the area, probably reflecting off these. Nice rain- steady for the moment!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can't we just have rain, like any normal place?

Columbus Day (Tomorrow):

Rain and snow showers likely before 11am, then rain showers likely between 11am and 4pm, then rain and snow showers likely after 4pm. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 41.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Average high here was 79.6F for 10/1-10/7. My analogs had a cold October, so not thrilled initially. But when I looked...10/1-10/7 in 2006 was also 79.6F.

I like 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994 (x2), 2006 for the winter. Two of those years were followed by El Ninos, which is looking increasingly likely next winter to me.

To be honest, if you split my analogs in half, I like 1994, 1986, 2006 as a blend for precipitation. I like 1953, 1976, 1994 much more for temperatures.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/4/2018 at 8:11 PM, Chinook said:

Keep up the hope. My last 0.25" in Loveland was Aug 18-19. overall 0.14" in Loveland in September, and about 0.53" in Fort Collins in September. Today, we had some rain for maybe 1/2 hour, and one rumble of thunder.

 

Western areas should get 1.0" to 2.0". Front Range areas should get 0.5" to 1.0"

GFOZx1T.png

 

Thanks for the words of encouragement, and for sharing that chart :thumbsup:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gotta hand it to Larry Cosgrove, he's been talking about the real pattern evolution for winter happening only after mid-October tropical systems in the US since July. The month so far has been one of incredible extremes, with departures around +20F near IN/KY and near -20F in the Dakotas. Evanville, IN is like +16F month to date, with a mean high of 87.2F for 10/1-10/9. My mean high so far in October is...75.3F. A lot of my analogs do show up as legendary early October torches, so I'm on the right track I think. I liked 1953, and had been toying with 1934. Both are extremely hot in the areas that are hot so far this October.

DpHqAn_WsAAa6k2.jpg:large

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are getting our first snowfall. Right now there are decent size clumps of flakes. At the same time as a kick-butt hurricane landfall. I hope everybody is OK in Florida.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have to say when I saw how close the Nino zones were to 1992 and 1969, with Camille and Andrew I was a little surprised that some kind of monster hurricane hadn't hit the US. Look at September (1969) or August (1992). September 1935 & 2017 were close year too for what its worth.

tdlVuDK.png

 

Aug        4           3.4       3         1.2
1992    28.93    26.91    25.03    20.87
1994    29.50    27.38    24.86    19.98
1994    29.50    27.38    24.86    19.98
2006    29.21    27.16    25.51    21.71
2017    28.86    26.69    24.87    20.68
2017    28.86    26.69    24.87    20.68
Mean    29.14    27.04    25.00    20.65
2018    29.23    26.94    25.06    20.69
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Chinook said:

We are getting our first snowfall. Right now there are decent size clumps of flakes. At the same time as a kick-butt hurricane landfall. I hope everybody is OK in Florida.

Hurray!  Been snowing off and on up at our house southwest of Bellvue all day probably 2-3 inches.  We're at about 6000 ft. elevation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Gotta hand it to Larry Cosgrove, he's been talking about the real pattern evolution for winter happening only after mid-October tropical systems in the US since July. The month so far has been one of incredible extremes, with departures around +20F near IN/KY and near -20F in the Dakotas. Evanville, IN is like +16F month to date, with a mean high of 87.2F for 10/1-10/9. My mean high so far in October is...75.3F. A lot of my analogs do show up as legendary early October torches, so I'm on the right track I think. I liked 1953, and had been toying with 1934. Both are extremely hot in the areas that are hot so far this October.

DpHqAn_WsAAa6k2.jpg:large

I agree - Larry's weekly posts on the Weather American Google Group are great to follow and generally on the money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another 1.20" here in the last day, making 3.30" for the month. Things will be shutting down now though, with no precipitation or very little the next 10 days. First hard freeze might be coming on Monday morning though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is looking better as far as getting precipitation in this state. The western areas have done pretty well. Fort Collins and Loveland have gotten 0.6" or better.  I got 0.65" at my place this month, including that snow that melted on contact. The snow happened for a number of hours on Wednesday, but didn't accumulate. Coming up this weekend - accumulating snow!!  I think it's a little too early for this.

fi5ozHc.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It has been a rather snowy week up here dominated by fog. Wednesday was a bit tricky on the roads with decent accumulation.  Saturday night and Sunday look good for 4-5 inches and single digit lows Sunday night. I will be heading down to the BVI's for two weeks late month, so bring on the cold...it will make me appreciate the beach all the more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was skeptical at first, but looks like we really may have a high down here in the 40s on Monday. Only 40 days in October since Oct 1 1931 have had a high of 45F or less here. Would be...top 1.5% for cold October highs here? (40)/(31*87) 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As an old Phillies fan, watching the Dodgers lose never gets old, especially when Kershaw blows up.

I am done with the forecast part of my winter forecast. Just updating text for clarity and looking for typos. Will link it here sometime on Saturday or Sunday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Leaves around here are really, really pretty. Better than most years for some reason, though still nothing like New England. They'll either fall or help to break their own branches on Sunday. Lows are forecast in the low teens early Monday -wtf?? and I have not had my sprinklers blown out yet. And they can't come for a while. Grrr.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It does look pretty cold for the coming few days. Cold front isn't here just yet though. I've been waiting for a cold month here since August 2017 - it looks like it is finally happening.

This is my outlook for winter if anyone is curious. I included snow anomalies for each analog year (July-June since we live in the mountains).

https://www.scribd.com/document/390797995/Winter-2018-19-Outlook

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My area is getting the storm now.  The temperature has fallen to 30 quickly. We have some snow accumulation of 1/2" or less, with 20-30mph wind gusts (gust to 36mph at Fort Collins-Loveland Airport)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×