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Chinook

Mountain West Discussion

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Here is the new thread for the summer. Notable things to talk about recently here:

High wind gusts on 4/11, 4/12, 4/13, 4/14, and 4/17, with 60mph-80mph in and near the foothills on 4/17

0.55" of rain/snow on 4/21 and 4/22

brief thunder and 70 degrees on Monday 4/23

light snow and 40 degrees on Tuesday 4/24. The radar looked like lake-effect snow, but the snow rate really wasn't too special.

Some cool days scattered throughout April. It's likely that our metro areas have been -1.0F to -2.0F for the month.

Today: first 82 degree day of the year.

Upcoming: the 18z GFS says 2" of rain for Larimer County to southern Wyoming in the next 5 days! I might have to get out an umbrella or something. Once again, the trend seems to be north of Denver. The Euro has 0.8" to 1.0" generally in NE Colorado. So maybe some more significant accumulating snow above 8000 ft this week.

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15 hours ago, ConiferMtnMan said:

Looking like a few inches here in Conifer this week. With any luck this will be our last accumulating snowfall of the season and we can roll into a summertime pattern.

Yesterday I put my Jeep soft top on, so we are now guaranteed to delay the transition to a summertime pattern :)

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8 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Remember the crazy late April and mid-May storms last year?

Yes, sure do.  On May 18th and May 19th we received ~40" of heavy wet snow.  By end of day on May 20th it was ALL gone on south facing slopes except for spots in the shade under trees.  I have never seen so much snow melt so quickly...

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Yeah, my place even got 7.5" of snow.

Lookie here, 50 - 60dBz for the first time this year. This developed just after passing Fort Collins as a weak thunderstorm.

dUbPvg3.png

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Nice and cool today but I suspect we'll hit 90F here much earlier than last year. Historically super dry Nov-Apr periods in the SW are followed by major rains in June, and the Canadian has that kind of look for June, but we've had four ~cold Mays in a row here, its due to flip.

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In the last storm, which was May 1st - 4th, my area got 2.33" of rain, and we had temps in the 40's on May 2nd.

Upcoming in about 5 days -- there should be a trough in Utah and Nevada, supporting some (perhaps more than 1) periods of rain in northern Colorado. We may have one or more days with a slight risk for severe weather. The cold front on Friday may bring in enough moisture so we get 50-52 dew points on the plains, and CAPE to go with it.

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Feb-Apr global SSTs kind of look like a blend of Feb-Apr 1968, 2006, 2014, 2015. Will be interesting to see if that holds up going into Summer. 1968 & 2014 took a while to develop into El Ninos. You have a warm Pacific, similar Atlantic, similar Indian, years after warm/dry Western winters. Not great for solar, so maybe I could blend in 1934 and 1996 too.

T7P6gfL.png

Y0eGTWG.png

 

 

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Since 1931-32, this past Nov-Apr (0.72") was third driest in Albuquerque.

Here is a look at the years w/in 0.3" of the observed dryness this past Nov-Apr.

2005-06: 0.41" in Nov-Apr --> 1.14" Jun 2006

1995-96: 0.58" in Nov-Apr --> 2.86" June 1996

1966-67: 0.80" in Nov-Apr --> 1.71" June 1967

2012-13: 0.83" in Nov-Apr --> 0.02" June 2013

1954-55: 0.87" in Nov-Apr --> 0.33" June 1955

1946-47: 0.88" in Nov-Apr --> 0.23" June 1947

1932-33: 0.94" in Nov-Apr --> 3.81" June 1933 (one of our top-ever rain months)

Fair number of these years have hot/cold east/west or vice versa orientations in winter and followed major Gulf Coast hurricane seasons interestingly enough.

Mean is 1.44". We'll see!

 

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Ended up going with a fairly cool Summer for the US overall, though June will be fairly warm. Final Summer analogs: 1963, 1968, 1968, 1972, 1972, 1994, 2006, 2009, 2009, 2014. I was surprised at how similar 1968 and 1972 look to what the Canadian is showing for JJA ocean temperature anomalies.

Down here, there seem to be two windows for rain in June: June 10-13, and June 22-28, which is interesting since the latter period is usually the hottest week of the year, often over 100F on multiple days.

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All models have quite a bit of convection and total rainfall in northeast Colorado and Nebraska coming up in the next 4 days. Things may get interesting around here. My place has already gotten a fair amount of rain this month.

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For a couple of hours, my area had 56-57 dew points, leading to this analyzed 4000 J/kg over Larimer County low mountains and Cheyenne. Even Reed Timmer impressed.

iyDUNPL.jpg

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NWS issued a flash flood warning for Boulder (including their own office), as 1.5" of rain has fallen in 1 hour. It could be headed toward me.

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Areas of NE Colorado got 0.3" to 4.5" of rain within the last week. Unfortunately, it is still pretty much a drought for the south and west portions of the state.

RvVBNV8.png

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I know... on Friday my flight from the East Coast took a very circuitous route down over NM and west almost as far as Durango to avoid a wall of t-storms (the yellows and reds on your precip map) and get to DEN, and it was amazing how little snow remains in the northern NM mountains and the San Juans. Looks like mid July snow-wise, and it isn't green.

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We've had two 50+ snow/rain free streaks since mid-October here - but the second one ended today. BTW, the Atlantic is absolutely frigid all of the sudden. Might be the coldest May AMO since the warm phase began in 1995.

Ddwi1JcUwAAj-m6.jpg

Ddwi4sRUwAEMiQj.jpg

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My area got slammed with hail for about 1/2 hour from 6:00 to 6:30. Thankfully, it was smaller hail. The hail depth was 2". There may have been 1.5" of precipitation.

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