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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

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I went with a blend of 1963, 1968, 1968, 1972, 1972, 1994, 2006, 2009, 2009, 2014 for my Summer Outlook. Its not perfect, but some similarities in both where we've been (winter/spring) and where the Canadian has JJA SSTAs globally. Its a fairly cool Summer nationally

The SOI is around -4 for May to date, and the last 30 days. There is often an SOI reaction to developing El Nino conditions before SSTAs show up as El Nino (see 2014 most recently).

bDHF1YQ.png

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               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3

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On 5/19/2018 at 11:20 PM, Cerakoter1984 said:

I think it's a head-fake that never becomes a Niño. Warm-neutral with folks trying to call it a Niño is my call.

The rate of warming now, it will at least be Weak for a time. We would need a pretty significant global pattern change for it to not at least go Weak El Nino for some time. 

sst_sst_anom_5day_comp_drupal.png

The May 19 map is better..  

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Here are the weeklies. Had my first rain since late March, and my first thunder and lightning since last September here. We had a mid-Oct to mid-Jan streak with no rain earlier, then a 54-day dry streak that ended today. Any type of new pattern has to be better here for moisture, with the exception of Feb/Mar when the SOI crash beat back the dryness temporarily.

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2

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On 5/20/2018 at 2:17 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The rate of warming now, it will at least be Weak for a time. We would need a pretty significant global pattern change for it to not at least go Weak El Nino for some time. 

sst_sst_anom_5day_comp_drupal.png

The May 19 map is better..  

I'm speaking in terms of official, not briefly going above for a month or 2 and crashing back to normal or just below again for folks to say "close enough". Know what I mean. I was around here for all the hype leading up to the 2016 "Super" Niño. It was hyped and forecasted for 2 solid years before actually being a real Niño.

 

I see the maps repeatedly posted. You have any descriptive or technical info to back them up or go with them? Ie: "Why 'this' supports 'that'? Or what point you're making.

It may draw more discussion to your thoughts.

 

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The Jamstec has updated its Modoki values through March now. The DJF Modoki value was -0.08, way up from -0.48 last year. Negative Modoki values are generally events where Nino 1.2 is warmer than 3.4 by a lot, while positive Modoki events are when Nino 3.4 is warmer than 1.2 by a lot.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt

Some kind of blend of 1933-34, 1967-68, 1974-75, 1980-81, 1995-96, 2005-06 seems like the closest match to last winter based on the AMO, PDO, ONI, Solar, SW Monsoon, Modoki, and ONI in the prior year blend that I use for my winter outlooks. Unusual concentration of major hurricanes hitting Texas prior to winter among the closest matches to last winter.

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I researched things some 10 years ago with real data points correlations in a 1948-2007 dataset, and found tremendous correlation to subsurface ENSO anomalies and North Pacific pattern. The correlation was stronger than any surface El NIno/Nina, MJO, OLR, SST trend/difference. 

This cold pool is happening as the North Pacific +PNA is waning. Not a coincidence. 

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz_Anom_Comp.gif

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I wholeheartedly understand the correlation between Niño/Niña and +PNA/-PNA (Moreso, really, PDO state, as PNA state is a reflection or effect of PDO/Niño coupling). However, there's nothing at all though, to indicate to me that after the upcoming trades burst we will see sufficient Westerly wind bursts to reinforce or even get the Niño off the ground. There's just not enough atmospheric support there to flip the state all the way over in my opinion. I think the subsurface warming will dissipate pretty quickly or simply fail to surface.

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You may be right. The whole Global pattern supports Weak El Nino right now. I've seen it evolve many times, and a developing Weak El Nino in June-July rarely wanes before the next year. Things have cooled off short term. The subsurface is impressive, especially since the cold pool in trend is peaking. Nino 3.4 will be +0.5 to +0.7 in 4-6 weeks is my guess. 

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Maybe it is auto-correlation or a fluke or something, but we haven't had a warm-neutral winter with low solar since the 1950s, I think it would have happened more recently if it wasn't slightly disfavored by solar tilting the ENSO scale a bit.

I do think the PDO will be much less positive than 2014-15, when you had the insane +2 reading for Nov-Apr by JISAO. An El Nino with an opposite sign PDO or even a flat PDO would be a pretty different winter for the US v. 2014-15 and 2015-16. Not a blow torch everywhere, and not cold in the East/warm in the West. 

The Mar-Aug PDO base state plus October Nino 1.2 readings re-created from analogs are a good PDO estimate for Nov-Apr, and we know Mar/Apr 2018 is neutral for the PDO.

It's been a long time since the AMO was negative with an El Nino and a warm Pacific, that's a semi-ideal pattern for cold and moisture in the SW, so I do hope we hit the jackpot with all three phases aligned. The AMO looks legitimately negative this May.

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18 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Maybe it is auto-correlation or a fluke or something, but we haven't had a warm-neutral winter with low solar since the 1950s, I think it would have happened more recently if it wasn't slightly disfavored by solar tilting the ENSO scale a bit.

I do think the PDO will be much less positive than 2014-15, when you had the insane +2 reading for Nov-Apr by JISAO. An El Nino with an opposite sign PDO or even a flat PDO would be a pretty different winter for the US v. 2014-15 and 2015-16. Not a blow torch everywhere, and not cold in the East/warm in the West. 

The Mar-Aug PDO base state plus October Nino 1.2 readings re-created from analogs are a good PDO estimate for Nov-Apr, and we know Mar/Apr 2018 is neutral for the PDO.

It's been a long time since the AMO was negative with an El Nino and a warm Pacific, that's a semi-ideal pattern for cold and moisture in the SW, so I do hope we hit the jackpot with all three phases aligned. The AMO looks legitimately negative this May.

Nobody wishes for a negative AMO more than I. 

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7 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

You may be right. The whole Global pattern supports Weak El Nino right now. I've seen it evolve many times, and a developing Weak El Nino in June-July rarely wanes before the next year. Things have cooled off short term. The subsurface is impressive, especially since the cold pool in trend is peaking. Nino 3.4 will be +0.5 to +0.7 in 4-6 weeks is my guess. 

Don't get me wrong, I can promise you I really really x1000 really want a weak Niño going into this autumn and winter. I also DO acknowledge that the atmosphere looks like Niño quite a lot right now. (Warm ridging over the northern central plains and into central Canada, cool moist underneath and cutoffs forecast to keep hitting the west coast) Problem is that it's more of a reflection of what I know to be a winter Niño state than what is commonly associated with a developing Niño in the summertime. Hence why my weight is pretty heavy on it failing. It will be fun to watch and see though.

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Latest ENSO update from CPC favors neutral conditions through summer and into early fall. Beyond that there is a 50% chance we go from neutral conditions to an El Nino by winter. It is way out there, so take it fwiw. I am no expert but it seems unlikely we see legit Nino conditions develop this summer.

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13 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

Don't get me wrong, I can promise you I really really x1000 really want a weak Niño going into this autumn and winter. I also DO acknowledge that the atmosphere looks like Niño quite a lot right now. (Warm ridging over the northern central plains and into central Canada, cool moist underneath and cutoffs forecast to keep hitting the west coast) Problem is that it's more of a reflection of what I know to be a winter Niño state than what is commonly associated with a developing Niño in the summertime. Hence why my weight is pretty heavy on it failing. It will be fun to watch and see though.

Good point. I think there is also an unsaid point of the average global temperature is +0.3 to +0.4 right now

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Yeah. We have dropped a long way in global temp from the hysteria of a couple years ago. Whenever the extreme heat in the Atlantic and the heat off S. America dissipate, there won't be much heat to talk about for a bit without a Niño.

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15 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Good point. I think there is also an unsaid point of the average global temperature is +0.3 to +0.4 right now

Of the +.4° Global temp anomaly right now, right at or just over half of it is ocean temp. (+.2°C)

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I do know one thing, if you guys are right and what I have read about the link between AMO and the North Pacific hold true, our weather will get a lot more interesting as the year goes along. Especially after July passed. The storm track has been so lazy and lax for 3 years and it makes it hard to break out of very persistent weather patterns.

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Some +3> subsurface anomalies are getting close to the surface and Nino 3.4 has made switch to positive. Maybe in a few weeks.. AMO should start to warm soon, wonder if this will create a sea-saw effect with ENSO (spurring Nino). Medium term models are La Ninaish for the Hemisphere. 

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