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3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Trending away from El Nino

D11.gif

Seems that a weak El Nino,  or at least warm neutral should be possible. The Alantic should cooperate. 

 

 

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If you look at the first post in this discussion, it has the mid-June maps for 2017 & 2018. There is far more warm water at the subsurface, and far less cold water now. In 2012, ONI did reach near El Nino conditions in Fall, JAS to SON, before falling off to near La Nina conditions in winter (-0.4 in DJF).

ONI values in MAM (-0.4 +/-0.2) were similar to the following years:

If ONI is -0.1 or -0.2 in AMJ, after being -0.4 in MAM, years within 0.2 for both periods include:

1962, 1967, 1968, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1986, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2012

June 2018 is pretty hot in the middle of the US (cooling off quickly here after the big rains yesterday), cool FL, NE, NW. That looks like the opposite of 1967, and similar to 2001 and 2012. Going forward, the colder Atlantic in June (y/y) favors a colder July v. last year in the East and SW, with the warmer Nino 3.4 favoring enhanced moisture in the SW (AZ especially). The SOI was -9.5 last June, so that won't be too different from this year. 

My hunch is we get an El Nino, but it starts in July or August, and then it ends fairly early, say January/February, it will be the flip of 2016-17 (Modoki El Nino, not Modoki La Nina, colder Atlantic ring by Africa, not warm, near neutral PDO, lower solar) with maybe near exact opposite behavior. The La Nina that ended in March started in September. Something like a blend of 1963, 1996, 2009 is my idea for later Summer and Fall, maybe Winter too.

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Nino 3.4 went positive for the first time since last August. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3

 

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

The European has had an El Nino for two runs in a row now, arguably a bit stronger this run. I added the yellow line as an approximate middle ensemble.

81RgEWc.png

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2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Looking at this graph the tendency may be La Nina for another 1-2 years. Aesthetics are 60% chance it falls in the Fall I think, although it will be hard to cool the subsurface disregarding Weak La Nina chances. 

uwnd_sst_iso20_anom.gif


SOI is also up since 1998.

soi_110w_drupal.gif

You can see the anomalously westerly winds popping up along with warmer SSTs, though. The spring barrier has passed, and it looks like El Nino will be in place in the winter.

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