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jaxjagman

Tn Valley Severe Weather

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Slight risk now for the Western Valley,hail and wind tomorrow potential right now

Should dry out in the Valley for  few days then become unsettled again,we could get in the lower 90's around  next  weekend Middle Valley even hotter in the West Valley,east seems to be a dart throwing competition.

Chance for tropical genesis once again into the GOM towards the mid month.If the Euro is right there would be a good trough coming through the Valley Mid month coming out of Asia in the long run.Either way,MJO,etc.,etc.,the wet pattern is coming back seemingly,we'll see.

Above median precipitation is most likely for parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into the interior Southeast, where dynamical model forecasts, including the ECMWF, CFS, JMA, and SubX MME, indicate enhanced atmospheric moisture flow from the tropics, including the potential for tropical storm activity.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

 

1.png

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Not only is the GOM favorable for tropical genesis,there is also potential with the favorable MJO in Asia for a recurving typhoon,if it were to evolve #activepotentialfortheValley

ECMWF Model   Tropical Tidbits (1).png

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Memphis could get rocked by a nice bow echo around 00Z today. That would be fun from the roof of a Beale St. bar while buzzing. Alas, I made the silly decision to sit out a weekend chase late in a desperate season. Memphis buddy is going. Missouri is worth it from MEM but not CHA. Best of luck to him!

Guess that leave me wishing for more tropical trouble. Tropical storm is a nice compromise to not tear up the coast too bad, but really a hurricane is required to keep the 850/925 mb winds robust enough to spin up tornadoes in the bands. Also would prefer remnants moving slightly east, as opposed to backing away from the potential storm cell inflow. 

I could let 2017 severe season go because we had the Eclipse coming. 2018 is a much harder pill to swallow; so, I will selfishly wish for hurricanes. It's not like we can control it anyway.

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8 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Memphis could get rocked by a nice bow echo around 00Z today. That would be fun from the roof of a Beale St. bar while buzzing. Alas, I made the silly decision to sit out a weekend chase late in a desperate season. Memphis buddy is going. Missouri is worth it from MEM but not CHA. Best of luck to him!

Guess that leave me wishing for more tropical trouble. Tropical storm is a nice compromise to not tear up the coast too bad, but really a hurricane is required to keep the 850/925 mb winds robust enough to spin up tornadoes in the bands. Also would prefer remnants moving slightly east, as opposed to backing away from the potential storm cell inflow. 

I could let 2017 severe season go because we had the Eclipse coming. 2018 is a much harder pill to swallow; so, I will selfishly wish for hurricanes. It's not like we can control it anyway.

With the drought in the plains we shouldnt see a system going through Texas with more of a anti-cyclonic flow,seems like if something if it were to develop would either go east of Texas or go into Mexico,least right now anyways,but we'd rather see a tropical system as far west as you get though it might work out for you guys in the east but we need to see a storm first

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Looks like the system i said into the latter part of the first week of June is going to go north of the Valley.PNA has been showing more positive around the 6th through the 9th,unlike the earlier runs.But the crap winds right now,probably wouldn't have mattered anyways...lol

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Depression headed towards Vietnam,don't really see nothing of a typhoon right now with also clouds even further east of that which could develop something.Asia though looks really active in the long range from VietNam into Korea.This bodes well with a potential wet pattern, MJO towards the mid month and beyond for the Valley.Seems odd middle of June potential though in summer we see a potential wet pattern like this compared to past summer times

33.png

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The MJO looks to  show stronger signals into around the Caribbean/GOM in a couple weeks,plus with a passing Kelvin.It wouldn't totally surprise me if the GFS is  right,it's been showing tropical genesis forever it seems.Euro don't really show much right now,but there looks to be a wave it shows headed towards the Yucatan,but it doesn't develop it.

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MJO appears to have indeed reached a phase in which we might get a break in the heat. I'll gladly trade in the tropical outcome for the now forecast modest/moderate mid/upper flow across parts of the region late this week and over the weekend. Looks unidirectional, but should offer more than summer popcorn t-showers. 

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8 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

MJO appears to have indeed reached a phase in which we might get a break in the heat. I'll gladly trade in the tropical outcome for the now forecast modest/moderate mid/upper flow across parts of the region late this week and over the weekend. Looks unidirectional, but should offer more than summer popcorn t-showers. 

Yeah at least right now we have some jet and shear showing to work with during the time frame you mentioned.

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Amazing the SPC will not even give us Marginal. I would not expect more attm. However it should be Marginal. Starting to look unidirectional and modest, which might be good for a little wind. I'm not sure flow is strong enough for splitters and hailers. Too bad, spring has been incredibly boring.

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Marginal for Thurs,Western Valley

 

 ...Mid to lower MS Valley...
   Cool air aloft with the upper trough and ample low-level moisture
   will lead to areas of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX to IL.
   Complicating this forecast scenario will be widespread precipitation
   and clouds early in the day. However, a plume of heating and
   steepening low-level lapse rates is expected to develop mainly along
   and west of the MS river. Given cool temperatures aloft, an arc of
   diurnal re-development is expected. Hail and wind will be possible,
   and portions of the area may eventually be upgraded to a Slight Risk
   once predictability issues decrease in later outlooks.

Marginal for most of all the Valley,with the exception of the far NW

 

 ...Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley...
   A large area of thunderstorm potential will exist from the MS River
   to the Appalachians with substantial moisture in place and
   relatively cool air aloft with the upper trough. The most likely
   area for severe storms appears to be from the Arklatex into northern
   AL, and northward into KY. However, given the likelihood of
   antecedent outflows and early/ongoing storms, predictability is low.
   A Slight Risk may be needed in some parts of the area in later
   outlooks

Possibly a decent MCS late night Sat into Sunday morning,as to where it goes is the question.But the Euro and GFS both show it right now

 

 
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Now we're talking! Expect Slight Risks in our Region both Thursday and Friday. They are impossible to place attm. due to morning MCSs. However the said MCSs will deposit outflow boundaries OFBs. Looks like at least 40kt and possibly up to 60kt of shear which is great for June. Moderate shear over cooking OFBs is acceptable. Low levels appear quite veered though. Upper levels are also veered, so it is not a total loss. Slight directional shear is forecast, and one has to mentally rotate the whole thing clockwise about 90 degrees. Chasers need a hard right mover on an outflow boundary; otherwise, it is just straight winds and hail. Friday, due to lapse rates, the hail coring may be good.

Thursday I am not able to be in the field. However the Mid-South should have a Slight. Friday I can get into the field if the set-up is right. MCS giveth and taketh. If it goes all MCC wash-out through midday the whole thing busts (so 2018). If a smaller MCS dissipates by late morning, it will deposit a (chaser) beneficial OFB, perhaps oriented NW to SE which would be ideal for a right mover. Probably won't happen. Probability of chase is low. Probability of MCC is pretty high in 2018, lol!

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Slight risk tomorrow,southern areas.Nashville seems to think the slight risk will be expanded,so we'll see what the next update shows.For today so far:

 

 

 ...MO/AR into KY/TN/MS...
   A cold front currently extends from central MO into northeast AR. 
   Scattered thunderstorms will develop along this front this
   afternoon, spreading eastward into parts of western KY/TN and
   northern MS this evening.  Relatively strong wind fields in this
   area suggest some risk of severe storms capable of damaging wind
   gusts.  A consensus of model solutions suggest that afternoon t-td
   spreads will only be the 10-12 degree F range.  This combined with
   poor mid-level lapse rates lend uncertainty to a more robust severe
   event.  This area will be monitored in later updates.

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SPC is still talking about nudging it north Friday. They have questions about ongoing storms which makes sense. However fewer midday storms would allow the outflow (from tonight) to surge up toward I-40. Then, more of Middle/East Tennessee could get involved. 

I'm guessing 2% tor for Dixie. SPC 5% is likely for CO/KS Friday. Both are perhaps a tornado or two. SPC talks up veering more out there (right) and they are hatched (for hail though).

Hello Thursday! Tornado warnings for the MO/AR Delta are a little out of season. Will it repeat farther east Friday? Need correct short wave timing...

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Tomorrow is a giant big pile of "meh" on the nightly guidance IMHO. 

Looks like an early/midday MCS washout which may kill the threat entirely unless this just doesn't materialize, although 999/1000 times it does and it puts a damper on things. Not impressed at all tonight. 

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This is 2018 so these crap set-ups are all we have, lol! Main outflow boundary OFB is down in the Deep South but away from upper level flow. Secondary OFB is along the TN/AL border into CHA/Ringgold as of Noon Eastern Time. Upper level winds are good, but the LLJ is totally and hopelessly veered off. Did anyone think we could actually get a good wind profile in 2018? I didn't think so either.

Nonetheless, I have a personal rule about outflow boundaries with strong instability and under upper level flow - especially close to home on a Friday. Heck yeah I'm going out for a country drive today! Calling it a chase might be a joke, but I'm going out. This is 2018. If you don't live in Laramie WY this is the best it gets, lol!

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We totally whiffed out of what the models showed.We should have gotten more rain here.Friday was the killer to start with,with the dry air intrusion that neither the GFS or Euro showed.Don't think we even got a quarter inch of rain from this mess the last couple days here, didn't expect much in the way of severe here,but i thought we'd at least get more rain...sigh...

Hopefully we get some good storms over night.GFS shows MUCapes above 5k in the afternoon in the Mid Valley Sunday,what were those lotto numbers again?

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57 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

We totally whiffed out of what the models showed.We should have gotten more rain here.Friday was the killer to start with,with the dry air intrusion that neither the GFS or Euro showed.Don't think we even got a quarter inch of rain from this mess the last couple days here, didn't expect much in the way of severe here,but i thought we'd at least get more rain...sigh...

Hopefully we get some good storms over night.GFS shows MUCapes above 5k in the afternoon in the Mid Valley Sunday,what were those lotto numbers again?

I was thinking the same thing. I dont follow the stuff as closely as some in the forum but could tell yesterday early on that things in reality were not modeled correctly. Was a great air mass but could have used a little rain!

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Big time cell just came through Memphis Anout an hour ago.  Thunder, lighting, straight line winds, and some torrential rainfall.  Few trees down, Did not see any hail though, we got a severe thunderstorm warning from it but no tornadic activity to speak of I believe.  Might be something to watch though as the system pushes east towards everybody else on in forum area. 

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6 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

Big time cell just came through Memphis Anout an hour ago.  Thunder, lighting, straight line winds, and some torrential rainfall.  Few trees down, Did not see any hail though, we got a severe thunderstorm warning from it but no tornadic activity to speak of I believe.  Might be something to watch though as the system pushes east towards everybody else on in forum area. 

I have a friend who lives in Loretto,Tn who shared some pics on my facebook page.Tore some of his shingles off his home,tore his gutter almost completely off and threw his trampoline across his yard into the woods,plus numerous trees uprooted,that was a violent storm that swept through like you said

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22 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I have a friend who lives in Loretto,Tn who shared some pics on my facebook page.Tore some of his shingles off his home,tore his gutter almost completely off and threw his trampoline across his yard into the woods,plus numerous trees uprooted,that was a violent storm that swept through like you said

Heck yeah man, hope your buddy was ok. It was intense, came in pretty quick too.  Once it started it was ON too.  I was at the golf course and within 15 minutes the fairways had 2 foot of standing water running threw them.  Guy had a tree go down right on his driveway that I noticed as I left out of the course too. 

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6 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Heck yeah man, hope your buddy was ok. It was intense, came in pretty quick too.  Once it started it was ON too.  I was at the golf course and within 15 minutes the fairways had 2 foot of standing water running threw them.  Guy had a tree go down right on his driveway that I noticed as I left out of the course too. 

Yeah,i was taking a nap and missed it :(.I caught the storm on my radar after it passed Lawrence Co.But it as well put up a couple OFB's into Alabama and So.Middle Tn late afternoon,we can't get nothing here

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On 6/24/2018 at 3:59 PM, jaxjagman said:

Yeah,i was taking a nap and missed it :(.I caught the storm on my radar after it passed Lawrence Co.But it as well put up a couple OFB's into Alabama and So.Middle Tn late afternoon,we can't get nothing here

Here’s to hoping you get a good one sooner rather than later.  With this heat it wouldn’t take much to get a good storm!

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1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

Here’s to hoping you get a good one sooner rather than later.  With this heat it wouldn’t take much to get a good storm!

You guys get any of the storm last night?They put us in a watch but i figured it would go west of us,it was dropping S from Kentucky.Seen some 80 mph winds on my radar in Southern Kentucky,70 mph towards the KY/Tn line into Tn but it looked like it was starting to weaken the further S it went,i went to bed by the time it got to you guys

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On 6/1/2018 at 6:30 PM, jaxjagman said:

Slight risk now for the Western Valley,hail and wind tomorrow potential right now

Should dry out in the Valley for  few days then become unsettled again,we could get in the lower 90's around  next  weekend Middle Valley even hotter in the West Valley,east seems to be a dart throwing competition.

Chance for tropical genesis once again into the GOM towards the mid month.If the Euro is right there would be a good trough coming through the Valley Mid month coming out of Asia in the long run.Either way,MJO,etc.,etc.,the wet pattern is coming back seemingly,we'll see.

Above median precipitation is most likely for parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into the interior Southeast, where dynamical model forecasts, including the ECMWF, CFS, JMA, and SubX MME, indicate enhanced atmospheric moisture flow from the tropics, including the potential for tropical storm activity.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

 

1.png

Kinda eerie photo shop look,if you go back to the pic i posted on 6-1,you'll see what i'm saying.Before we had our our recent wet spell recently we had a decent warm up.Looking at the weeklies last night,it's showing this with even 25C into the Western Valley around mid month and 20c for us in the rest of the Valley showing on the 850mb temps.After this the temps of the 850mb go south,cool down period and potential wet pattern.CFS has been showing a potential active KW into the mid month.If the KW were to work out we could see some tropical genesis into week 3 of next month into the GOM,the weeklies sure show this.We shall see upcoming

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22 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

You guys get any of the storm last night?They put us in a watch but i figured it would go west of us,it was dropping S from Kentucky.Seen some 80 mph winds on my radar in Southern Kentucky,70 mph towards the KY/Tn line into Tn but it looked like it was starting to weaken the further S it went,i went to bed by the time it got to you guys

Yeah we did, it came in late though.  Right around 11:30 the wind picked up out of no where and the rain blew in.  It wasn’t a gully washer but we got a steady rain for about 2 hours.  Not too much lightning but the wind was was enough to bring some Limbs down.  No trees came down to my knowledge though. 

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50 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Yeah we did, it came in late though.  Right around 11:30 the wind picked up out of no where and the rain blew in.  It wasn’t a gully washer but we got a steady rain for about 2 hours.  Not too much lightning but the wind was was enough to bring some Limbs down.  No trees came down to my knowledge though. 

Cool,i was watching the radar and it was starting to die out seemingly with the loss of diurnal heating as mentioned.That would have been a nice storm if not for timing.Though i can do without wind storms like that, that knock the power grids out like it did into Ky into some towns

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On 6/30/2018 at 5:18 PM, jaxjagman said:

Cool,i was watching the radar and it was starting to die out seemingly with the loss of diurnal heating as mentioned.That would have been a nice storm if not for timing.Though i can do without wind storms like that, that knock the power grids out like it did into Ky into some towns

Yeah.  I with ya on the power getting knocked out, that’s never a good thing.  Especially in those rural areas where people don’t have access to help like you would in a city environment.  Have you been keeping up with the ice pack up north any Jax??

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Got a good thunder storm last night around 11.  Rained steady for about an hour and we had some serious lighting going on.  Few limbs down but nothing substantial.  Might translate into a few storms for you guys across the east side of the state today.  Tomorrow looks like it’s gonna be wet in West Tennessee.  I haven’t looked at the severe outlook yet though for tomorrow. 

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