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Tn Valley Severe Weather


jaxjagman
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  • 2 weeks later...
Someone posted this about an hour ago claiming it was London, Ky and even gave the street they they took the picture from. Not sure if it's true, mainly interested on what kind of cloud this is. 

FB_IMG_1590717632266.thumb.jpg.0f35f100eb8f781fe245b44157bea1ab.jpg

Looks like a shelf or roll clouds moving in with imbedded scud clouds. Either way it’s beautiful

 

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Looks like a beautiful shelf cloud with scud underneath. I see that often in East Tenn. Regrettably/Fortunately (depending on one's perspective) it's not dangerous and not a tornado.

Looking ahead, desperation has me watching for a tropical cyclone landfall next weekend or later. If it's central Gulf I might be interested in the outer bands supported by robust LLJ like winds off the surface. Zero interest in a landfall intercept, but maybe right/east side tornadoes. 

The 2020 debacle continues. No Plains chase. Almost hit overnight at home. Upper Midwest death ridge. Tropical temptation desperation. 

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Looks like a beautiful shelf cloud with scud underneath. I see that often in East Tenn. Regrettably/Fortunately (depending on one's perspective) it's not dangerous and not a tornado.
Looking ahead, desperation has me watching for a tropical cyclone landfall next weekend or later. If it's central Gulf I might be interested in the outer bands supported by robust LLJ like winds off the surface. Zero interest in a landfall intercept, but maybe right/east side tornadoes. 
The 2020 debacle continues. No Plains chase. Almost hit overnight at home. Upper Midwest death ridge. Tropical temptation desperation. 

Scuds are often confused for tornadoes. They can look suspicious but most people look at the cloud structure and not try to find rotation.


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55 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Looks like a beautiful shelf cloud with scud underneath. I see that often in East Tenn. Regrettably/Fortunately (depending on one's perspective) it's not dangerous and not a tornado.

Looking ahead, desperation has me watching for a tropical cyclone landfall next weekend or later. If it's central Gulf I might be interested in the outer bands supported by robust LLJ like winds off the surface. Zero interest in a landfall intercept, but maybe right/east side tornadoes. 

The 2020 debacle continues. No Plains chase. Almost hit overnight at home. Upper Midwest death ridge. Tropical temptation desperation. 

CFS did rather well with the KW even back into the first of May.It was mentioned on the ENSO thread.

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Could get some strong storms Thursday.Hard to figure out any MCS at this point,not much shear showing up like Nashville  mentions.It dont look as warm in the long range what the Euro showed yesterday but still AN,have to watch the tropics upcoming next week like Jeff mentioned

 

National Weather Service Nashville TN
610 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

As a longwave trough slips east across the Mid Atlantic and New
England regions, Middle TN is benefiting from the effects of an
approaching high pressure system. Temperatures this afternoon sit
comfortably in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with little to no
cloud cover. Tonight will be the coolest night of the upcoming
work week, feeling almost fall-like, with values dropping into
the upper 40s and low 50s. We expect temps to rebound nicely
Monday afternoon under a mostly sunny sky and a surface wind
slowly becoming ESE. Mid-level ridging takes hold of the
Tennessee Valley, keeping us dry through midday Wednesday. Models
are not in the best agreement in regards to rain chances
Wednesday afternoon, with the GFS ensembles a touch wetter across
southern counties.

A slow-approaching cold front will wash out over the Ohio Valley
Wednesday night into Thursday. Combined with an impulse of energy
ejecting from AR and another across the Gulf Coast, height falls
will contribute to developing rain Thursday morning and a few
storms by Thursday afternoon/evening. A few stronger storms cannot
be ruled out if decent lapse rates and MLCAPE values are
realized...though shear parameters remain very weak. In addition,
mid and upper-level northwest flow will place our area along a
favorable trajectory for upstream MCS development Thursday
afternoon through Saturday morning. Historically, storm complexes
that develop hundreds of miles to the northwest and hold together
long enough to make it to the Mid State are challenging to
forecast. Current model solutions are not in lockstep, proving the
complexity of the forecast. The strength and persistence of any
mesoscale convective system is dependent on the environment it
creates for itself and the environment it encounters downstream.
The northwest flow/MCS pattern is common in Middle TN around
summertime and bears watching later this week.

Beyond Saturday, high pressure tries to build in across the
Midwest and northern portions of the TN Valley. At the same time,
there are indications of some type of tropical development in the
Gulf of Mexico by Sunday into early next week. If high pressure
builds in strong enough atop the Mid State, we can expect the
tropical moisture to stay farther south. If only weak ridging
develops, this could allow moisture and rain chances to approach
the area from the south early next week.

Temperatures over the next seven days will become quite
toasty...as much as 7 to 10 degrees above normal for the start of
June. Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be the warmest, though upper
80s to low 90s are possible all the way into next weekend.
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They do mention the Tennessee Valley twice, or on two days. We'll see. Ohio Valley could get it too. Everything is pretty unidirectional upstairs, but there is flow for wind or hail.

I was looking back at the May 31, 1985 outbreak in Ohio, Penn, and NY State. They had just a little turning from WNW 500 mb to WSW 850 mb. Intriguing. 

That's not in the cards this week. However I will keep it in mind balance of June north of here. 

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Severe weather was well below normal in May 2020, especially tornadoes. Watches, moderate/high outlooks, severe reports, and tornadoes were all well below normal, some at or near record low. The attached slides are a summary of just how anomalous May 2020 severe weather was.

Here is a summary:
-May 2020 was the first year without a moderate risk or higher Day 1 outlook issued in the 1995-present period.

-May 2020 had the fewest number of tornado watches in recorded history (1970-present).

-May 2020 had the fewest severe weather reports since May 2014.

-May 2020 had the fewest recorded tornadoes since at least 1970 (likely longer).

-May 2020 had the fewest number of EF2+ tornadoes in recorded history (1950-present).

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The lamenting in the Plains chasing community is off the chart. Final stats are somewhat closure, and somewhat more reason to whine, lol! 

Hurricane season is ramping up and tropical fans are excited. How do I feel? Picture Clint Eastwood on his porch in Gran Torino. :fulltilt:

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
659 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

TNC005-017-039-077-050015-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200605T0015Z/
Henderson TN-Benton TN-Carroll TN-Decatur TN-
659 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN BENTON...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL
AND NORTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTIES...

At 659 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Wildersville, or
near Natchez Trace State Park, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Fire Department confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Natchez Trace State Park, Natchez Trace State Forest, Wildersville,
Parkers Crossroads, Clarksburg, Westport, Hillard, Holladay, Dollar,
Palmer Shelter, Yuma and Parker`s Cross Roads.
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That was a nice supercell that broke off that main band.To North it had to be a  shelfie that lasted several minutes afterwards that got severe warned,further east we started to lose instability.The supercell that got warned did a couple recycles but lasted almost two hours with a wall cloud and funnel cloud which i saw reported and watching my radars.Plus, it was running into a OFB.

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  • 2 months later...

Tuesday was interesting. Wednesday (today) looks like another possible Marginal to Slight upgrade.

Similarities include a surface boundary in the region include CAPE (absolutely ludicrous humidity) and a CV / vort max coming out of Arkansas. 

Difference is surface is all veered off today. GFS/NAM keep it so. Euro 06Z develops a meso-low on the Ky/Tenn border that'd light up!

PS the HRRR is doing HRRR things. Maybe 16/17Z closer to game time it will be useful.

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Tuesday was interesting. Wednesday (today) looks like another possible Marginal to Slight upgrade.
Similarities include a surface boundary in the region include CAPE (absolutely ludicrous humidity) and a CV / vort max coming out of Arkansas. 
Difference is surface is all veered off today. GFS/NAM keep it so. Euro 06Z develops a meso-low on the Ky/Tenn border that'd light up!
PS the HRRR is doing HRRR things. Maybe 16/17Z closer to game time it will be useful.

So maybe some action later, I like it.


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Memphis had some drama Wednesday eve. They tornado warned Arkansas just west of town. Good thing it did not pan out. Heading right to the most populated area. Saw a nice shelfie on Twitter or somewhere.

Clarksville also had a suspect cell. Never warned and didn't go severe. Friend sought out the base from Austin Pea U. Not bad.

So, PowellVolz we have another severe enthusiast? Jax is another one of us. Everybody join us. You do not know the power of the Dark Side!

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Memphis had some drama Wednesday eve. They tornado warned Arkansas just west of town. Good thing it did not pan out. Heading right to the most populated area. Saw a nice shelfie on Twitter or somewhere.
Clarksville also had a suspect cell. Never warned and didn't go severe. Friend sought out the base from Austin Pea U. Not bad.
So, PowellVolz we have another severe enthusiast? Jax is another one of us. Everybody join us. You do not know the power of the Dark Side!

Oh yeah. I’m more knowledgeable during the winter but I’ve always been interested in severe weather and lately I’ve been studying more. I’m not into climate stuff, especially long term. Thank goodness we have guys on here that take a special interest in it.


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  • 2 months later...

Man look at the SSTS off the JAPAN coast,Sea of JAPAN and even Sea of OKHOTSK.Then you factor in the warmer than normal SST'S in he Gulf.Seems prime for a fun severe season,if you like severe.Of course this is only a model in Nov and we are talking April,but still.Troughs galore in the east with this.

 

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