AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 early Winter pattern subtropical jet day8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 I'd like to know more about this ridge that starts off the west coast of Mexico and continues through the North Pole. This only started happening in the last 5 years, and is being modeled to continue through most of January. Winter 13-14 had a long period of this, but 17-18 will be longer. I guess more specifically -- why is the NPH so strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aperson Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The pattern appears to be a strong +DA (dipole anomaly), e.g. the second mode of the Arctic Oscillation's EOF (see fig 2: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL036706/full). This article posits that sea ice loss on the Pacific side generates a teleconnection that results in this sort of pacific ridging behavior: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01907-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 This pattern, if you look at conditions in the big drought in the West in 1947-1957, happened fairly frequently, had ten-below average water years in a row from July-June, for 1947-48 to 1956-57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 36 minutes ago, raindancewx said: This pattern, if you look at conditions in the big drought in the West in 1947-1957, happened fairly frequently, had ten-below average water years in a row from July-June, for 1947-48 to 1956-57. Perhaps a perfect storm of natural and man-made forcings conspired to bring about an early demise of arctic ice cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 For reference, most of NM (non-mountains) gets <10" per year. So 3-4" below normal for a decade is crazy. For what its worth, photographs of the Arctic in the air-force did imply that during the end of the warm AMO/warm PDO peak (1928-1945) sea ice extent may have been as low as 4.5-5.0 million km^2 based on comparisons to today - that's still above the levels of say, 2012 by quite a bit, but it would have been similar to years like 2017. Some of the winters in the 30s/40s are pretty similar to recent winters. 1931-32 v. 2016-17, 1930-31 v. 2015-16 come to mind, and then others in the mid-40s too. The intense cold in the NW in 2016-17 is similar to a lot of winters in the 40s in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Pacific_High Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 2011 Now, go back before this date and you'll never see a ridge south of the west coast connected to Russia through the Pole. Even at this start, there are significant differences to the now (+PNA way west, cold that far south into the Gulf- it wouldn't happen that way, in other words so much -anomaly). [If someone can help my ability to upload images on this board it may be helpful for future reference] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 On 1/8/2018 at 9:57 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: [If someone can help my ability to upload images on this board it may be helpful for future reference] Use the http version of the image, not the https one. eg. use http://image.ibb.co/jwWvbm/77b.gif, not https://image.ibb.co/jwWvbm/77b.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 We are probably heading, yet again, to a similar configuration around day 10, with potentially the coldest air mass of the season in our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 More of the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 2, 2018 Author Share Posted April 2, 2018 April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Quote So far I have to rate this thread as a failure. I have seen zero incidents of any of the images you have shared that the ridge has spanned across the equator. Maybe you have a different definition of hemisphere than I do though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 9, 2018 Author Share Posted April 9, 2018 On 4/2/2018 at 11:30 AM, bowtie` said: So far I have to rate this thread as a failure. I have seen zero incidents of any of the images you have shared that the ridge has spanned across the equator. Maybe you have a different definition of hemisphere than I do though. It's a rare pattern that has happened since 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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