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Chinook

2017 East Pacific Tropical Season

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Here is the latest GOES-16 image of Major Hurricane Eugene, which is the first major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere this year. The Category-3 status was just analyzed by the NHC. Official forecasts of Hurricane Eugene show that it will track NW, away from the land mass of Mexico.

r7yIAz0.jpg

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Looking at NHC's eastern pacific storm forecast this morning, and it appears that they have two storms scheduled to be more or less at the same place on Sunday. Both Hilary and Irwin are forecast to be around 121W 21N. Can this be right? What kind of interactions would be happening if this were to occur?

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1 hour ago, gisman said:

Looking at NHC's eastern pacific storm forecast this morning, and it appears that they have two storms scheduled to be more or less at the same place on Sunday. Both Hilary and Irwin are forecast to be around 121W 21N. Can this be right? What kind of interactions would be happening if this were to occur?

Irwin is moving toward the west-southwest or 255 degrees at 6 kt.
Currently, the cyclone is embedded within weak steering currents,
and Irwin will probably continue on the same slow west-southwest
track during the next day or two. After that time, Hurricane Hilary
is forecast to pass well north of Irwin, and the steering currents
will change to southerlies, and most of the models agree that Irwin
should begin to move with a northerly component in the wake of
Hilary. This is reflected in the official NHC forecast which in fact
is close to the multi-model consensus TVCN, and is not very
different from the previous one.

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Hurricane Hilary (65 kt), is on the right side of this image, and Tropical Storm Irwin (50 kt), on the left side of this image. They will undergo a Fujiwhara interaction. Irwin should pivot cyclonically around Hilary over the next few days. Both cyclones should be weakening steadily as the Fujiwhara occurs.

KibKrQD.gif

 

Bq1VXDb.jpg

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LOL this poor dilapidated thread...

 

Possible cyclogenesis and a microcane near the Guatemalan coast being modeled with agreement between both ECMWF and GFS. Nothing organizing IRL for now but a surface vortex is modeled to break off the southern extent of the elongated surface trough over central America and gain organization SW of Costa Rica. Anyway, something to watch as this feature could threaten land this weekend.e74049c8b1fe728024a9b68170600dad.jpg98b9770fe87eafd666e4c889c5bf3209.jpg

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TS Selma a vigorous but small surface vortex off the coast of El Salvador. Convection is trying to stack. Shear and time are the issues. Still, beng a compact circulation, if shear can relax it could ramp up quickly. The NHC is not forecasting a hurricane but flooding along the Altiplano is probably the bigger concern.78fe417f135ac46be507051e5e489fef.jpg

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