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Upstate/Eastern New York

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Storms are going to be absolutely flying tomorrow in this area. Consensus on a 700 mb jet of 60-80 kts positioning itself over W/Central PA and W NY through the afternoon.

I can't imagine 75/66 at IDI at 02z is all that common in this region with a system of this intensity waiting to shift NE, especially with a lack of an organized MCS to the west. That corridor of backing low level flow showing up on the higher res guidance is certainly intriguing with the strength of the H925-H85 flow being forecast.

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29 minutes ago, tim123 said:

If things clear out in am chance for mod risk?

It's possible if we can get some rogue cells. Most models keep the storms linear. It's tough to get a Mod risk with Linear storms unless a large derecho is expected. 

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Can someone please inform the atmosphere that Buffalo isn't Bangladesh?  Wave after wave of monsoonal rains having been moving up Lake Erie since yesterday, with the most impressive one yet on our doorstep.  This after a record 6.38 inches of rain in April.  Seriously, enough already.  

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Nasty...

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NYC009-013-029-012000-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0006.170501T1906Z-170501T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
306 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Western Cattaraugus County in western New York...
  Southern Erie County in western New York...
  Chautauqua County in western New York...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 306 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Lake Erie State Park to near Lottsville, moving
  northeast at 75 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  Jamestown, Dunkirk, Fredonia, Hamburg, East Aurora, Salamanca,
  Allegany State Park and Evans.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 59 and 57A.
 Interstate 86 between exits 8 and 21.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These are potentially deadly storms. Seek shelter in an interior room
on the lowest floor of a well-built structure. Abandon vehicles in
search of a more substantial permanent structure. Stay away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for western New
York.

LAT...LON 4200 7940 4246 7948 4248 7947 4253 7939
      4260 7919 4270 7910 4279 7849 4200 7871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 223DEG 65KT 4238 7950 4196 7945

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

Hitchcock



 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NYC029-063-012000-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0005.170501T1900Z-170501T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
300 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northern Erie County in western New York...
  Niagara County in western New York...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 300 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles west of Fort Niagara State Park to near
  Dunkirk, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda,
  Clarence, Lockport and Lackawanna.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57 and 49.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for western New
York.

LAT...LON 4273 7908 4280 7892 4284 7893 4291 7890
      4295 7892 4300 7902 4306 7900 4308 7908
      4315 7904 4325 7906 4330 7909 4340 7864
      4341 7845 4277 7849 4269 7910
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 232DEG 49KT 4325 7918 4257 7934

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HITCHCOCK

 

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8 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Nasty...

Severe Thunderstorm Warning


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NYC009-013-029-012000-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0006.170501T1906Z-170501T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
306 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Western Cattaraugus County in western New York...
  Southern Erie County in western New York...
  Chautauqua County in western New York...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 306 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Lake Erie State Park to near Lottsville, moving
  northeast at 75 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  Jamestown, Dunkirk, Fredonia, Hamburg, East Aurora, Salamanca,
  Allegany State Park and Evans.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 59 and 57A.
 Interstate 86 between exits 8 and 21.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These are potentially deadly storms. Seek shelter in an interior room
on the lowest floor of a well-built structure. Abandon vehicles in
search of a more substantial permanent structure. Stay away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for western New
York.

LAT...LON 4200 7940 4246 7948 4248 7947 4253 7939
      4260 7919 4270 7910 4279 7849 4200 7871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 223DEG 65KT 4238 7950 4196 7945

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

Hitchcock



 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NYC029-063-012000-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0005.170501T1900Z-170501T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
300 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northern Erie County in western New York...
  Niagara County in western New York...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 300 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles west of Fort Niagara State Park to near
  Dunkirk, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda,
  Clarence, Lockport and Lackawanna.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57 and 49.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for western New
York.

LAT...LON 4273 7908 4280 7892 4284 7893 4291 7890
      4295 7892 4300 7902 4306 7900 4308 7908
      4315 7904 4325 7906 4330 7909 4340 7864
      4341 7845 4277 7849 4269 7910
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 232DEG 49KT 4325 7918 4257 7934

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HITCHCOCK

 

There is new thread talking about the severe

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