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Severe Weather threat February 14th, 2017


monsoonman1

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SPC already issued an Enhanced risk for severe weather February 14th for much of southeast TX. 

Any discrete supercells will have a threat of tornadoes in this
   environment. Mitigating factors to tornado longevity may be some
   weakness in wind fields around 700 mb especially in southern areas,
   and potential for numerous storm interactions. However, a strong
   tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
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21 minutes ago, Chargers09 said:

This one came out of nowhere, tbh.

Its been on forecasters radars for a few days now. The extent of the severe weather risk depends on how far north the surface low tracks. A more northerly track allows more of Southeast Texas to get in on surface-based convection. That solution seems more likely now, hence the increased risk of SVR and the northward extension of the probs. Those further north will be dealing with elevated storms with a risk of hail and spotty damaging wind gusts. We'll have to see exactly how much of a TOR risk develops tomorrow. 

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3 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Its been on forecasters radars for a few days now. The extent of the severe weather risk depends on how far north the surface low tracks. A more northerly track allows more of Southeast Texas to get in on surface-based convection. That solution seems more likely now, hence the increased risk of SVR and the northward extension of the probs. Those further north will be dealing with elevated storms with a risk of hail and spotty damaging wind gusts. We'll have to see exactly how much of a TOR risk develops tomorrow. 

Makes sense to me. I'm on the far East side of the SA metro area. This is my first potential severe event since moving down here back in June of last year and I'm looking forward to it.

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