WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

[Chinook]

Pretty interesting Youtube video

 

[vortex95]

Arnab looks quite good as it approaches land.  I bet it is 125-130 kt given it pinhole eye and small size (115 kt at 06z).

One things that has bugged me w/ JTWC wind fcst once a system is inland.  Look at the 28/06z fcst position on the graphic attached.  It is a good 30 nm inland by that point, and still 100 kt sustained?  That is unrealistic given how coefficient of friction over land is much higher over than water, so winds drop very quickly.  And the TC will be quickly weakening at the same time.  And still 65 kt sustained 12 hr later farther inland?  No way.

Now, for this two fcst positions, 100 kt and 65 kt *gusts* at these times are reasonable, but that's a huge difference in sensible wx than these sustained values!

Look at the HAFS-A fcst for landfall and when it is just inland.  The model shows how big the effects of land friction are!