Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,929
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    8283 El Nino Baby
    Newest Member
    8283 El Nino Baby
    Joined

Neutral enso winters after an el nino


uncle W
 Share

Recommended Posts

I added the three weak la nina's under the 8 neutral enso years after an el nino...six of the eight had a snowstorm 10" or greater with two years having two such storms...each winter either was cold or snowy or both...1954-55 was the worst for snow lovers but it was cold...1959-60 was mild but had a cold and snowy March and a white Christmas...1978-79 had the PD1 storm in February with one of the coldest weeks ever...1980-81 was very cold but snowfall was lacking...same went for 1983-84...1992-93 had the super storm in March after a good February...2003-04 was very good until February and had a very cold month...2005-06 was mild but had some snows in December and a 27" storm in February...1964-65 was a cold winter with normal snowfall...1995-96 was a cold winter and the snowiest of them all...1959-60 and 2005-06 were mild but had above average snowfall and one major KU storm...

red is for above average temps and below average snow...black is for near average all...blue snowier and colder than average...

season...DJF ONI...snowfall big snows...DJF TEMP...30 day cold...season minimum...

1959-60....-0.1.........39.2"...13.7"...14.5"...36.2......30.3......9

1966-67....-0.4.........51.5"...12.5".....9.8"...34.1......28.6......4

1978-79.....0.0.........29.4"...12.7".....5.0"...32.7......26.0......0

1980-81....-0.2.........19.4".....8.6".....4.9"...32.7......22.2.....-1

1983-84....-0.5.........25.4".....6.9".....5.1"...35.1......26.1......4

1992-93.....0.2.........24.5"...10.6".....4.3"...35.0......31.0......7

2003-04.....0.3.........42.6"...14.0"...10.3"...32.4......22.5.......1

2005-06....-0.7.........40.0"...26.9".....5.8"...37.3......33.5.....14

2016-17....-0.4.........30.2".....9.4".....7.6"...39.3......35.2.....14

...............................................................................................

1954-55....-0.6.........11.5".....3.9"..............34.0......28.6.......0

1964-65....-0.5.........24.4".....6.3".....4.6"...33.3......28.0.......9

1995-96....-0.9.........75.6"...20.2"...10.7"...32.3......27.7.......5

neutral after el nino precip.png

neutral after el nino temp.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
On 8/9/2016 at 10:46 AM, JBG said:

Seems like somewhat of a mixed bag. Some of the winters such as 1959-60 and 2005-6 were "one trick pony" winters.

people forget the good start to the winter of 2005-06 in December...1959 had a 6-14" snowstorm just before Christmas...13.7" in Central Park...March 1960, 1967, 1981, 1984, 1993 all had storms 7" or greater...only 1979 had no measurable snow in March...March averages cold and snowy for these analogs despite below average precipitation......

march analogs precip.png

march analogs.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...
On 8/25/2016 at 11:08 PM, uncle W said:

people forget the good start to the winter of 2005-06 in December...1959 had a 6-14" snowstorm just before Christmas...13.7" in Central Park...March 1960, 1967, 1981, 1984, 1993 all had storms 7" or greater...only 1979 had no measurable snow in March...March averages cold and snowy for these analogs despite below average precipitation......

According to media reports the pre-Christmas 1959 storm was about 7"; solid but not spectacular. 2005 from what I remember had a few 3" or so events.  I would still rate 205-6 and 1959-60 "one trick pony" winters with the record storm of February 11 (or so) 2006 and March 2, 1960.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, JBG said:

According to media reports the pre-Christmas 1959 storm was about 7"; solid but not spectacular. 2005 from what I remember had a few 3" or so events.  I would still rate 205-6 and 1959-60 "one trick pony" winters with the record storm of February 11 (or so) 2006 and March 2, 1960.

the 59-60 storm gave us the first real white Christmas since 1948...I remember the storm because I was to sick to go to school that day or play in the snow...8" in Brooklyn where I lived...it was the largest of the four 6" or greater white Christmas snowstorms of 59, 61, 63 and 66...

Central Park - 13.7"

Battery - 6.6"

LGA - 5.6"

Newark - 5.3"

Dobbs Ferry - 8.5"

Westerleigh (SI) - 8.2

Bensonhurst - 8.0"

Bridgehampton - 9.4"

Patchogue - 8.0"

Garden City - 8.0"

Canistear Rsvr, NJ - 8.0"

Sussex, NJ - 8.0"

Freehold-Marlboro, NJ - 10.6"

Malverne, LI - 7.6"

Mineola, LI - 6.5"

Riverhead, LI - 6.0"

Setauket, LI - 4.3"

Bridgeport, CT - 2.1"

Danbury, CT - 2.5"

Groton, CT - 3.0"

Boston, MA - 1.0"

PVD - 2.0"

Poughkeepsie, NY - 3.0"

West Point, NY - 2.0"

Philadelphia Intl AP - 2.9"

Philadelphia (Drexel) - 3.0"

BWI - 0.9"

DC - 0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 5 months later...
9 hours ago, uncle W said:

2016-17 ends up snowy but mild...30-35" across the area...the average snowfall for the 11 analogs was around 35"...

Remember when I calculated the median of the analogs at the start of the winter and the result was around 30"  We were very close.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quite a few of those winters had fairly impressive warm-ups, too. In a lot of ways this winter conformed to the winters on that list quite nicely--the key difference being the overpowering warmth in February.  The cold shots that made their way down were usually pretty intense, though...just not many of them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, uncle W said:

2016-17 ends up snowy but mild...30-35" across the area...the average snowfall for the 11 analogs was around 35"...

Very similar winter to last year with near record warmth but slightly above average snowfall. Quite surprising that we had one event per month given how warm Jan and Feb were. My biggest storm was 9.5" on 2/9 in a month that finished +6.

Everyone will remember the "bust" on March 13th, though, which leaves a bitter taste. What was billed as a blockbuster 20+ event ended with 7.6" in Central Park. 

1 hour ago, masomenos said:

Quite a few of those winters had fairly impressive warm-ups, too. In a lot of ways this winter conformed to the winters on that list quite nicely--the key difference being the overpowering warmth in February.  The cold shots that made their way down were usually pretty intense, though...just not many of them.

This winter was very similar to many of the analogs posted including 71-72, 73-74, 83-84, and 07-08. You have to adjust for how mild the climate is nowadays...the older analogs will never verify exactly because of the overall warmth. 

I'd argue that the cold shots were NOT that intense. Central Park had a winter low of 14F, only 5F colder than the record high minimum of 19F set in 01-02. 2015-16 was -1F, 14-15 was 2F, and 13-14 was 4F. So we were much warmer than recent years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, nzucker said:

Very similar winter to last year with near record warmth but slightly above average snowfall. Quite surprising that we had one event per month given how warm Jan and Feb were. My biggest storm was 9.5" on 2/9 in a month that finished +6.

Everyone will remember the "bust" on March 13th, though, which leaves a bitter taste. What was billed as a blockbuster 20+ event ended with 7.6" in Central Park. 

This winter was very similar to many of the analogs posted including 71-72, 73-74, 83-84, and 07-08. You have to adjust for how mild the climate is nowadays...the older analogs will never verify exactly because of the overall warmth. 

I'd argue that the cold shots were NOT that intense. Central Park had a winter low of 14F, only 5F colder than the record high minimum of 19F set in 01-02. 2015-16 was -1F, 14-15 was 2F, and 13-14 was 4F. So we were much warmer than recent years.

I was alluding more to the December and March cold shots.  Those were definitely fairly impressive...especially areas just outside the city. Our most favorable setups for single digit cold occurred outside of Jan-Feb, so our lowest winter min ended up on the higher side. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...