Quixotic1 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 We really haven't had to deal with the warm nose in a while. Looking at currently progged temps would put the metroplex right on the surface 32 line during the event. I would venture to say that it will get colder we get closer. ETA:. Oh well. Never mind until the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 18z GFS is 4-6" or rain area wide. This feels more like a storm back from '15 when it seemed like we were always having multi rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 So, take your pick.. flood or ice storm.. I'd take flooding over the ice, but just bought a scraper just in case.. the cobblestone ice storm 3 winters ago broke mine and didn't need a replacement until now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 We need the rain but I love winter weather so, either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Now to watch the 0z models start to roll in.. Wonder what changes they'll bring tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Gfs showing a down right almost Warm rain and temps in the 60s, stalling the front nw of dfw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 7 to 8" of rain for areas east of I35 on the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 12Z GFS showing 7-8" of rain right on top of Collin County. One feature I have noted is that the Longer range NAM and the GFS are a good 50-60 miles apart when it comes to the cold front. Probably wont end up being a big deal here, except for maybe thunderstorms at 65 vs a cold rain at 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: 12Z GFS showing 7-8" of rain right on top of Collin County. One feature I have noted is that the Longer range NAM and the GFS are a good 50-60 miles apart when it comes to the cold front. Probably wont end up being a big deal here, except for maybe thunderstorms at 65 vs a cold rain at 40 When has there ever been that much rain in a single system in January at DFW? Also, NFWD talks about Arctic front stalling in the area. Again, when has that ever happened in January? The models are either not handling cold air well and it will push on further south, or not make it here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I've only lived in DFW since June 2013, but I don't recall that happening. On the artic front, I suppose it is possible but you are on the money with it stalling in January.. usually it'll blow right through. I'm leaning on the side of it not making it here over blowing through or stalling even but want to see after this thing has better sampling in a few days to say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 it was fairly common back in the 80s and 90s. One memorable one was in 96-97 where it was in the teens in Wichita Falls and balmy 50s in DFW. I think it's the SE ridge. If it's strong enough and elongated enough, it will hold off arctic intrusions. That said, this one, according to the AFD this is related to a large upper level low that's going to traverse southern Canada and pull most of the arctic air east with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 This weekend's storm is an odd set up, but all models are very consistent with it. I will be interested in if models trend to a more typical solution. It is just such a large gradient in temps for it to just sit almost stationary. If it does that is gonna be why we get such extreme rainfall. On another note, check out the rise in temps over the Panhandle since the weekend, up to a 90 degree difference between now and Saturday morning. And they will be back in the snow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 11:09 PM, aggiegeog said: Angel Fire can get incredibly cold, one of the coldest places in the lower levels 48 often. It's good to see the snow pack really start to build. On Sat. Angel Fire started at -35 and by noon it reached 0 and 37 by late afternoon. Those high valleys sure can have some wild swings in temps when winds die off and skies clear. Today's low was near 40 with south winds and cloudy drizzly skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 hours ago, Quixotic1 said: it was fairly common back in the 80s and 90s. One memorable one was in 96-97 where it was in the teens in Wichita Falls and balmy 50s in DFW. I think it's the SE ridge. If it's strong enough and elongated enough, it will hold off arctic intrusions. That said, this one, according to the AFD this is related to a large upper level low that's going to traverse southern Canada and pull most of the arctic air east with it. I think you are right. The timing of the lead northern stream s/w, PVA and H5 cutoff were nearly perfect on the big ice storm runs. Those runs also had the SE ridge with a different orientation. The H5 cutoff has trended slower and the SE ridge a bit stronger with a different orientation. The models have been struggling with the SE ridge in the longer range going all the way back to hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, bubba hotep said: I think you are right. The timing of the lead northern stream s/w, PVA and H5 cutoff were nearly perfect on the big ice storm runs. Those runs also had the SE ridge with a different orientation. The H5 cutoff has trended slower and the SE ridge a bit stronger with a different orientation. The models have been struggling with the SE ridge in the longer range going all the way back to hurricane season. That's the hope in all of this. First, the SE, which has been roasting under that ridge all winter, threaded the needle and got a snowstorm this past weekend. What does this mean for us? Well I believe, that as the winter goes on the ridge will weaken or bulge northward. If we get cold, it could mean any arctic air would stick around a-la the December '13 ice storm as it's held up by a not-so-big ridge. Even more mouthwatering is the thought of us being on the western side of a stalled arctic front as shortwaves move over. It could be an epic event (The models were showing almost exactly that scenario as we drooled over the weekend). The cold has been here this year. It hasn't come often but when it has, it's been every bit as cold as anything we saw in 13-14 or 10-11. If we get a really cold air mass that stalls, we could cash in. More likely sleet and ice than snow though. I've been looking for references for February and March of 89 which also had this scenario and was another Nina year, if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 The Atlantic (AMO) was still warm in December, but cooled a bit from November relative to the long-term averages. December was pretty cooler than 1937 and 1952 and a couple years in the late 1800s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, raindancewx said: The Atlantic (AMO) was still warm in December, but cooled a bit from November relative to the long-term averages. December was pretty cooler than 1937 and 1952 and a couple years in the late 1800s. I don't agree with JB on much, but man I can't wait for the AMO to change to a primarily negative state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 hours ago, raindancewx said: The Atlantic (AMO) was still warm in December, but cooled a bit from November relative to the long-term averages. December was pretty cooler than 1937 and 1952 and a couple years in the late 1800s. +PDO and cooling AMO... Wet spring on the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 I think Bill Gray assumed the AMO would be negative (for 30 years or so) by 2020 - still time for him to be right. I've seen papers from him in the late 80s claiming it would positive by 1995. There are other people who think it happens later in the 2020s. But it's not far. I kind of like 1940/1997 as the same position in the "climate clock", with 2017 thus akin as something like 1960 +/-3 years given the fluctuations in ENSO/solar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Comparison time... Nam Friday morning.. 41 degrees... Gfs??? 64... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: Comparison time... Nam Friday morning.. 41 degrees... Gfs??? 64... If it's going to rain, 64 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, jhamps10 said: Comparison time... Nam Friday morning.. 41 degrees... Gfs??? 64... Comparison - NAM mostly crap vs GFS usually crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said: If it's going to rain, 64 please. Agreed.. I wish the nam went out further than 84 hours to compare to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Heck, according to the 00z gfs nobody is getting ice. Even OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said: Heck, according to the 00z gfs nobody is getting ice. Even OK. Lol yeah I'm not going to buy that idea myself.. No ice in Texas sure but Oklahoma?? Think the GFS got too close to a blow torch in that run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 The January thaw is coming... ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 It looks like the 00z Euro and Para-GFS are farther east with the axis of heavy rain vs the GFS. Looks pretty wet for I35 and areas east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 And then, depression set in......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 21 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said: And then, depression set in......... Is this a "winter cancel" type scenario or just a break in the action? Bit new to this kinda stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, cheese007 said: Is this a "winter cancel" type scenario or just a break in the action? Bit new to this kinda stuff I say that every winter/spring when it's boring and nothing to track. I'm still optimistic about later in the winter. Maybe end of January - Early March. Right now, there's little blocking to send cold air our way. Maybe some storms to track this weekend but it seems pretty "meh". Strat warming about to commence. Never know where the dump will be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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