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Forecast accuracy and how it affects the car wash industry.


Sey-Mour Snow

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On a related note, the restaurant folks say (or used to say) similar things.  I never wanted to go the TV route but my mentor was a meteorologist on TV and so I interned with him one year and I remember getting calls from restaurant owners starting on Tuesdays saying "please don't mention any rain or storms in the forecast for the weekend".  This was back in 80s and we only did 5 day forecasts but they would insist that if we mentioned storms earlier in the week that people would change their plans and their business would be down for the week regardless of the actual weather.  I don't know if that has changed, but it's interesting that you brought that up about other businesses.

Just add my 2 cents to the convo; restaurant owners continue their hatred of the winter storm season; it

is still one of the most frequent calls I get when a snow event threatens on a weekend; throw in the

threat of a snow event on a Valentine's weekend and they become almost suicidal. What they find particularly frustrating is that even minor snow events cause widespread cancellations, often many days in advance of the weekend. It has grown worse even in the face of cars that are now designed to be much better in the snow; AWD or 4-WD...

Having taught meteorology at a variety of levels, I found a pretty constant truth; the percentage of folks

that can read, understand and pass along a forecast is remarkably low. I would post a NWS forecast on the board or show a video of a forecast from a local TV met, and then ask the class to either tell me what

the forecast was or to summarize it in written form. The results would bring tears to your eyes!!!

A problem I have seen play out when discussing how to read & understand a typical NWS forecast has to do

with the terms used in the probability statement; For ex. the forecast might read this way "Cloudy with a chance of snow showers; Highs in the low 30's; chance of snow 60 percent" ***While the forecast called

for "snow showers", the probability statement at the end uses the term "snow", not "snow showers"? Many

folks focus on the term in the probability statement "snow, versus "snow shower" and that then skews their understanding of the forecast. I would strongly suggest that if probabilities are going to be used in

a forecast, the same precip terminology is used; snow showers stay snow showers in the probability section and rain showers stay rain showers in the probability section; not rain, etc...

As for TV Mets, there is not much more they can do; their graphics and forecast animations are light-years

above what they were 20 years ago and most have mastered the art of focusing on the key points of the

forecast! But no one ever knows what enters the ears of listeners or their ability, or inability to

understand what has been said! From what I have seen over the years, the inability of some folks to

comprehend and process what the forecasters has said is often the issue.

Private sector forecasters have more of a captive audience and can go back and forth with their clients

until they are convinced the client fully understands the forecast & expected impacts; this is never the

case for the TV met!

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Just add my 2 cents to the convo; restaurant owners continue their hatred of the winter storm season; it

is still one of the most frequent calls I get when a snow event threatens on a weekend; throw in the

threat of a snow event on a Valentine's weekend and they become almost suicidal. What they find particularly frustrating is that even minor snow events cause widespread cancellations, often many days in advance of the weekend. It has grown worse even in the face of cars that are now designed to be much better in the snow; AWD or 4-WD...

Having taught meteorology at a variety of levels, I found a pretty constant truth; the percentage of folks

that can read, understand and pass along a forecast is remarkably low. I would post a NWS forecast on the board or show a video of a forecast from a local TV met, and then ask the class to either tell me what

the forecast was or to summarize it in written form. The results would bring tears to your eyes!!!

A problem I have seen play out when discussing how to read & understand a typical NWS forecast has to do

with the terms used in the probability statement; For ex. the forecast might read this way "Cloudy with a chance of snow showers; Highs in the low 30's; chance of snow 60 percent" ***While the forecast called

for "snow showers", the probability statement at the end uses the term "snow", not "snow showers"? Many

folks focus on the term in the probability statement "snow, versus "snow shower" and that then skews their understanding of the forecast. I would strongly suggest that if probabilities are going to be used in

a forecast, the same precip terminology is used; snow showers stay snow showers in the probability section and rain showers stay rain showers in the probability section; not rain, etc...

As for TV Mets, there is not much more they can do; their graphics and forecast animations are light-years

above what they were 20 years ago and most have mastered the art of focusing on the key points of the

forecast! But no one ever knows what enters the ears of listeners or their ability, or inability to

understand what has been said! From what I have seen over the years, the inability of some folks to

comprehend and process what the forecasters has said is often the issue.

Private sector forecasters have more of a captive audience and can go back and forth with their clients

until they are convinced the client fully understands the forecast & expected impacts; this is never the

case for the TV met!

Great point. I mostly follow this board and watch Ryan's station for weather info, while at times checking other local networks. With snow, I need to be ready since I plow driveways as a side business. Yet, I go to work (teacher) and people are arguing forcasts, especially before a storm, with wildly differing opinions. Some say no storm while others are saying 6 to 10 inches. I usually bite my tongue, but sometimes ask what forcast they listened to. The answer is usually the same channel I watched! So I ask when they heard what they heard and they say that morning, same as me! I thought it was just the people I work with and family, I guess people interpret what they hear/see differently with weather, no matter how clearly presented.

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The car wash industry in the Northeast relies on snow and ice so that the roads get salted. They also prefer dry conditions in the warm season so that cars don't get cleaned by the rain.

They guy wasn't pissed at bad forecasts, he was pissed at bad weather, and he was venting his anger at weather forecasters.

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The car wash industry in the Northeast relies on snow and ice so that the roads get salted. They also prefer dry conditions in the warm season so that cars don't get cleaned by the rain.

They guy wasn't pissed at bad forecasts, he was pissed at bad weather, and he was venting his anger at weather forecasters.

Rain doesn't clean cars. Driving in the rain dirties cars . Even if rained on and not driven..water spots when it dries. Either way you have to wash the car

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