Knoxtron Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Just had some 40mph gusts, tons of pea sized hail, and frog choking rains over here in the Hardin Valley area of Knoxville! That was an intense storm! Only lasted about 10 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Just had some 40mph gusts, tons of pea sized hail, and frog choking rains over here in the Hardin Valley area of Knoxville! That was an intense storm! Only lasted about 10 mins They split me yesterday afternoon; one going north/west and one going south/east. The sky was angry, glad some folks got a good frog choker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Chattanooga had a good light show late Thursday evening. Our thunderstorms were not strong like some others describe. Could not even get a benign shelfie in here, lol! Good news is my thirsty lawn and shrubs got a nice drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 13, 2016 Author Share Posted May 13, 2016 MCS started to choke off before they got to us,heard thunder in the back ground but nothing much here.Cold front moisture as well died out,advertised well by the HRRR in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 14, 2016 Author Share Posted May 14, 2016 Possibly a decent system in the long range,least it doesn't look to go into the high plains like this system,right now anyways Desctop screenshot.png The Bering Sea Rule BSR H5 Maps.png Euro has a bowling ball creeping through parts of the Valley next week.None of the models seem to agree with this time frame,even the esembles.The BSR maps during this time frame shows the system going W to E.Since i used my original overlay map of the Euro i'll post this pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 14, 2016 Author Share Posted May 14, 2016 Euro has a bowling ball creeping through parts of the Valley next week.None of the models seem to agree with this time frame,even the esembles.The BSR maps during this time frame shows the system going W to E.Since i used my original overlay map of the Euro i'll post this pic Numerical Model Prediction Tropical Tidbits.png It's something to watch in this time frame anyways if you apply the EAR(East Asia Rule) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 14, 2016 Author Share Posted May 14, 2016 Both the Euro and GFS this afternoon look quite similar,closed low into the Valley.Looks like some needed rainfall right now for those that needs it,like us here.Euro showed the storm yesterday creeping through at 6kts yesterday,sped up to 17kts today so the QPF'S took a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 15, 2016 Author Share Posted May 15, 2016 Next system could be around the 23-24th in the Valley.Should be looking at some much better capes,possibly the LP could be into the lower OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 16, 2016 Author Share Posted May 16, 2016 Next system could be around the 23-24th in the Valley.Should be looking at some much better capes,possibly the LP could be into the lower OV 3.png Dont look likemuch of anything now during these dates.ULL way up N and looks like rising heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 True, we are struggling to get severe action in the Valley. Plains should reload next week. Early week blocky ridge is right over the Plains but a Rockies trough starts to carve. Midweek the ridge shifts into the Midwest, opening the door for the Plains. Late week could be Upper Midwest. Over here it looks like lumbering leftovers again south of a Great Lakes ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 23, 2016 Author Share Posted May 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Ian saw that tornado. We were still traveling from MEM to OKC Saturday. Sunday we got on an HP beast in the Panhandle but did not see the cfm tornado. Should have stayed north near Perryington TX, lol. Monday scored the Woodward OK tornado. Not biting on 287 mess again. Tuesday hit the jackpot in Dodge City along with Ian, Quincy, Andy and most others. Wednesday took a quasi day off, trying to stay close to Wichita and hang out with friends, oops Bennington II. Ian and Q got that one. Thursday well, it happens. The VBV was not the problem. MCC in Texas, Houston we have a problem, shut down moisture return almost like a Gulf MCS for Dixie. Pix going in the Plains thread when I have a chance. Shootout at Dodge City made storm chasing great again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 Ian saw that tornado. We were still traveling from MEM to OKC Saturday. Sunday we got on an HP beast in the Panhandle but did not see the cfm tornado. Should have stayed north near Perryington TX, lol. Monday scored the Woodward OK tornado. Not biting on 287 mess again. Tuesday hit the jackpot in Dodge City along with Ian, Quincy, Andy and most others. Wednesday took a quasi day off, trying to stay close to Wichita and hang out with friends, oops Bennington II. Ian and Q got that one. Thursday well, it happens. The VBV was not the problem. MCC in Texas, Houston we have a problem, shut down moisture return almost like a Gulf MCS for Dixie. Pix going in the Plains thread when I have a chance. Shootout at Dodge City made storm chasing great again! Congrats on the activity and getting to see friends. Sounds like a great chase period for a lot of guys/gals. Will check the Plains thread for pictures. Be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Thank you! Yes I have been back safe since Saturday. Missing Abilene to Chapman KS was not terrible since we saw close friends in Wichita that day. Had I known Thursday would bust we would have seen those friends Thursday, and seen the wedge Wednesday, but that is weather, lol... Kentucky may surprise tomorrow, Saturday. Winds are a little veered off at the low levels, but the Ohio Valley can still rock in those conditions. Main short-wave coming in upstairs is vigorous, but a lead short-wave could create a mess midday. If everything speeds up a bit, morning rain would depart in time for afternoon heating. The left over boundary would offer additional local storm-relative shear. A faster solution also gets the main short-wave closer by peak heating. Just a scenario, not my most likely forecast; I will be relaxing with my thoughts in Chatty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN THROUGH ERN KY...SRN AND CNTRL WV AND WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 041644Z - 041845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIAN REGION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. DISCUSSION...DIABATIC WARMING EAST OF A EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IS SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM MIDDLE AND ERN TN THROUGH ERN KY...WV AND WRN VA WITH 1500 J/KG MLCAPE INDICATED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...BUT STRONG SFC HEATING IS SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. DEVELOPING STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST /25-35 KT/ 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 30-40 KT WINDS BETWEEN 700-500 MB. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS MODES CAPABLE OF WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 See if those storms on the AL/TN border can do anything this Sunday afternoon. Right rear (entrance) region of the East Coast jet max is over the Valley. However as usual that quadrant low levels are really veered off. Otherwise I suppose if you like storms, live vicarously in the Mid Atlantic or Southeast (Carolina) threads. I-95 corridor still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 11, 2016 Author Share Posted June 11, 2016 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 VALID 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. LARGE-SCALE RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S...BUT...EMBEDDED IN THIS REGIME...TROUGHING WITHIN A REMNANT WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY. ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR NEAR THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. ON TUESDAY...THIS MAY BECOME FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER IMPULSE MAY SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST...BEFORE TURNING SLOWLY EASTWARD...THEN SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPULSE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE GULF STATES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME FOCUSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPMENTS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 15, 2016 Author Share Posted June 15, 2016 NAM tonight is showing a MCS with a microburst tomorrow,somewhere in Mid Tn.Who knows if it's going to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 If you like the hi-res NAM you'll love the hi-res ARW for today, Wednesday. ARW develops a bow echo starting in the region where MO/IL/KY meet. Feature organizes and barrels southeast through Middle Tennessee and North Alabama this afternoon. Sure be nice if it can stick to I-24 and rock Chattanooga too. First, will it even happen? Check of water vapor shows the subtle short-wave models are showing is indeed in Missouri this morning. Can the show-me state show us some action? Wave is forecast to track east and turn southeast today. CAPE will be plentiful with low level heat and humidity overcoming seasonably warm mid-levels. These dewpoints! Morning low clouds have a Plains feel but unfortunately formed for a totally different reason. We can dream. Latest HRRR also shows the bow echo feature this afternoon. I think we need some 15% wind into North Alabama, at least southern Middle Tenn. Could be some good shelfies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 If you like the hi-res NAM you'll love the hi-res ARW for today, Wednesday. ARW develops a bow echo starting in the region where MO/IL/KY meet. Feature organizes and barrels southeast through Middle Tennessee and North Alabama this afternoon. Sure be nice if it can stick to I-24 and rock Chattanooga too. First, will it even happen? Check of water vapor shows the subtle short-wave models are showing is indeed in Missouri this morning. Can the show-me state show us some action? Wave is forecast to track east and turn southeast today. CAPE will be plentiful with low level heat and humidity overcoming seasonably warm mid-levels. These dewpoints! Morning low clouds have a Plains feel but unfortunately formed for a totally different reason. We can dream. Latest HRRR also shows the bow echo feature this afternoon. I think we need some 15% wind into North Alabama, at least southern Middle Tenn. Could be some good shelfies! Hey Jeff, I just want to say that I very much appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts here on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 It is my pleasure, of course more so when something is going on. Line of storms is entering Tennessee from Kentucky. Looks like fun soon in Clarksville TN. Line should get to Nashville, but is not guaranteed to be solid. Figure it curves south from there toward North Alabama on a differential heating boundary. Still hoping for I-24 into Chatty of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 15, 2016 Author Share Posted June 15, 2016 Nice wind event,not sure how much rain yet but a decent shot,we needed it.Luckily we kept power here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Approximately 8 pm Eastern, My shelfie came to Chattanooga! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Knoxville to Tri Cities might see some wind action later this afternoon. Thunderstorms building in Kentucky are sinking south on a still moving outflow boundary. Shortwave is over Indiana. Warming mid-levels may keep it just northeast Tenn. However CAPE and LI are both robust for areas with storms. If a right moving (SSE/SE) storm can get alone it will have good wind shear. 850 is southwest while 500 and above is west-northwest. Otherwise, straight line wind is favored. Full MD: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1019.html Next day update: Well that forecast went about as well as USA v Argentina! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 6, 2016 Author Share Posted July 6, 2016 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SD...NEB...AND IA... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM WRN SD TO CNTRL IA... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR OH AND LWR TN VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLNS ESE INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ALSO MAY OCCUR FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORE ISOLATED AND BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THU AS FLAT RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS...SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ID WILL SHIFT E INTO WRN MT BY EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING E INTO ERN MT EARLY THU. ELSEWHERE...WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST FROM THE CNTRL RCKYS INTO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS. WITHIN THAT BRANCH OF FLOW...DISTURBANCES NOW OVER THE CNTR//SRN RCKYS...ONE MASKED BY MCS NOW OVER SRN MO...AND AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE UPR TN VLY WILL MODULATE DIURNALLY ENHANCED STM DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN HIGH PLNS S INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THE NRN END OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND EDGE ESE ACROSS SRN SD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING NE NEB BY 12Z THU...WITH A DIFFUSE QSTNRY BOUNDARY PERSISTING TO ITS ESE INTO THE MID-MO/MID-MS VLYS. ...NRN PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT... INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SVR EVENT OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS THIS PERIOD...MOST LIKELY CENTERED ON CNTRL/SRN SD INTO NRN NEB. ALTHOUGH LOW-LVL /850 MB/ MOISTURE FIELD REMAINS SOMEWHAT FRACTURED...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER THE UPR MS VLY...DEEP WLY SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN STEADY EWD ADVANCE OF FAIRLY POTENT ID/MT TROUGH. COMBINATION OF STRONG SFC HEATING...INCREASING SHEAR/ASCENT WITH UPR TROUGH...AND PERSISTENT SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLACK HILLS SUGGESTS THAT INTENSE STM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THAT REGION BY MID-LATE AFTN. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY. THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS THAT EXTEND A SVR WIND /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND HAIL RISK GENERALLY ESE TOWARD THE FSD AREA BY LATE EVE. WHILE POCKY MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE FCST...INCREASING SHEAR AND AMPLE BUOYANCY DURING THE OPTIMAL EARLY-EVE HOURS SUGGESTS A PERHAPS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DERECHO-PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL AND DYNAMICALLY-DRIVE INCREASE IN SWLY LLJ... THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH CNTRL/ERN IA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DMGG WIND. ...LWR MS...LWR OH...AND TN VLYS TODAY... OVERNIGHT MCS REMNANT NOW ENTERING SE MO ALREADY HAS DIURNALLY STRENGTHENED. 500 AND 850 MB THERMAL/MOISTURE ANALYSES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT ASSOCIATED FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WILL ACCELERATE EWD INTO PARTS OF THE LWR OH VLY THIS AFTN...WHILE A SWD PROPAGATION COMPONENT AUGMENTS THE SRN END OF THE LINE INTO THE TN VLY. COMBINATION OF RICH MOISTURE /AOA 2 INCH PW/ AND 25 KT WNWLY MID-LVL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED SYSTEM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE INTO THIS EVE OVER MIDDLE TN AND PERHAPS NRN AL. WEAKENING W-E ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW ENTERING NRN KY SHOULD PROVIDE A NRN LIMIT TO SVR THREAT. ...SERN STATES THIS AFTN... SPORADIC LOCALLY DMGG GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY DIURNAL AFTN/EVE PULSE STMS FROM AL AND GA ENE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA. LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE APPEARS REDUCED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY...AND MID-LVL TEMPS ARE WARMER OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA. SOME DEGREE OF CLUSTER ORGANIZATION MAY...HOWEVER...ARISE IN GA...WHERE MODEST LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT IS APPARENT FROM AN IMPULSE IN SRN STREAM JET...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SC PIEDMONT. ...HIGH PLNS AFTN/EVE... ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD PULSE STMS WITH LOCALLY SVR GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH PLNS FROM KS INTO W TX. GIVEN CIN OVER REGION...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FOCUS IN ZONE OF LOCALIZED LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS. SOME DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL EXIST IN KS...DOWNSTREAM FROM CNTRL/SRN RCKYS UPR IMPULSE. ...MI THIS AFTN/EVE... WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG SLOWLY ADVANCING AND DIFFUSE SW-NE FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AFTN/EVE STMS OVER PARTS OF MI...AMID 40+KT WLY DEEP SHEAR BENEATH NRN STREAM JET. RELATIVELY MODEST BUOYANCY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STM DURATION/STRENGTH. ..CORFIDI/SCHNEIDER.. 07/06/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Looks like an active day for severe weather across most of TN (except East TN). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Tornado or two reported in the Paducah, KY metro area. Several reports were public scattered from west of the city to around the River. The latter is from a reliable source. That thunderstorm complex should become a widespread wind producer. SPC was wondering in MCD 1166 whether scattered storms ahead of the line would turn over the atmo. While they might do so Middle Kentucky, I think rest of West Kentucky east of Paducah faces a bumpy ride. At one point I would have liked to be on the tall bridges over the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers at the tip of Illinois. Upon hearing the tornado reports, nah I think I am happy on the ground. Still wish I was near Paducah though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 SPC correctly forecasts MCS progression right of model tracks. SPC keys in on the outflow boundary left over from overnight stuff in Tennessee. Fundamentals is like chemotherapy for meteorological / model cancer for the SPC win. Unfortunately it means more damaging winds in Western Kentucky into parts of Tennessee. Once again the thunderstorm complex also has a ton of cloud to ground lightning. Also like yesterday WAA is in progress at 850 and 700 mb, promoting sustained damaging winds with storms (and wind energy) concentrated on the edge of the cap. However we should avoid a true derecho again because 500/200 mb criteria are not quite met. Wind direction is there but not height falls. Still, a repeat of yesterday would be bad enough. Shout out to utility restoration crews working in continuing storms, high heat and humidity, or all of the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 8, 2016 Author Share Posted July 8, 2016 ...LOWER OH RIVER AND KY/TN TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS... AN MCV RELATED TO A DECAYING MCS IS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDING PARTS OF WESTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHEAST IL/SOUTHERN INDIANA. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AN ENHANCED BELT OF WESTERLY WINDS /OBSERVED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS KY/ADJACENT TN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE SAMPLED VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD AND CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE SHEAR...PARTICULARLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV...WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING LINEAR CLUSTERS WITH WIND DAMAGE AS THE MOST COMMON SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 8, 2016 Share Posted July 8, 2016 Here is a tornado near Paducah KY on Wednesday. @TVAnews tweeted this photo from near the Shawnee Fossil Plant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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