UKStormFan Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Looks like the white stuff is returning to Colorado tommorow. 3-6" likely down town and then another storm next midweek which could be a little stronger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 EURO and CMC look good for summit county; gfs and nam, not as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Once again, a fairly low-impact snowstorm for the plains and the urban corridor, but we'll take the 2-6" gladly. Tomorrow, 700mb winds will be south to SE, upsloping in the cold air sector, and then switch to north. The 500mb/700mb lows move east of the mountains at the edge of the Oklahoma panhandle Sunday. Temps should be close to 32 for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 On Monday night to Tuesday, things are looking a little worse for snow in this area. A 994mb surface low and the 700mb low form in NE Colorado and track to the northern Midwest. The low-elevation snow might be in central Wyoming and Nebraska. Possibly 3-9" of snow for the Colorado mountains and NW Colorado. I think there will be some winds over 30mph on the lower elevations, possibly blizzard for parts of Nebraska. 2nd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 Fort Collins temps this month average to date: 39.93 average for normal December 1st-11th: about 33.0 Difference from normal: +6.93 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 I think I got 4 to 5" here this morning. a few clumps of dendrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConiferMtnMan Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 We ended up with about 4.5" up in Pine Junction. The last inch fell within about 20 minutes while it was snowing about as hard as I've seen in my 5 years in Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Coming down pretty heavily near Thornton as the band shifts east across the metro. 1.5-2" here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 My snow totals this season November 11th (1st blizzard warning-east CO) 2.0" (2nd blizzard warning-Denver) 0" Thanksgiving-Black Friday: freezing drizzle, 7.0" Sunday night Pats-Broncos game: 0.3" December 12th: 5.9" total: 15.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 We got 20" exactly for November (basically 8" thanksgiving weekend + 5" in the "blizzard" + 4" one other time + a couple 1-2 inchers), then about 1.8" today- never got into a band. Looks like a blizzard warning is the kiss of death for snow in Fort Collins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 The Tuesday storm may bring the 500mb farther south than I previously thought. It looks like this one may share the wealth (in the 3-7" category) in MT, WY, UT, CO, NE, SD. Perhaps not a lot of areas over 12" in the CO mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I have a hunch that a lot of storms pegged to slam CO will miss south to varying degrees this winter and spring. Although once a storm goes south enough over the SW it does pull in Gulf of California moisture which can offset the change in path. I'm kind of amazed I got almost an inch of precip (rain & melted snow) with this past storm, was expecting ~0.2" of an inch of liquid, with maybe 1-2" of wet snow at the end. Instead I had 4" snow after maybe 0.5" of rain. This is probably a top five year for precipitation in NM over the last century or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 was up in keystone and got about 10", official mountain report was 12" - got back to boulder and looks like they got an inch or two but most has melted. hoping for a few inches in boulder from the next one; hasnt been a strong start to the winter for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Dodge City getting some crazy weather KDDC 140039Z AUTO 34012KT 1/2SM TSSN FG VV005 00/M01 A2941 RMK AO2 TSB33 P0016 T00001011KDDC 140022Z AUTO 33010KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV006 00/M01 A2942 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE P0011 T00001011KDDC 132352Z AUTO 32011KT 3/4SM VCTS -SN BR VV008 00/M01 A2943 RMK AO2 SLP978 P0015 60080 T00001011 10022 20000 58012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 If Albuquerque snow remains at 5.4" for the month, it will be interesting to see if that is our snowiest, second snowiest, or third snowiest month of this Oct-May period. For most El Ninos 5.4" isn't enough snow in a month to be a top snowfall month, but it is too much snow to be the second snowiest month. Essentially, my historical data implies: 1) 5.4" as snowiest month = avg snow season - 9.6" from Oct-May 2) 5.4" as second snowiest month = great snow season - 23.6" Oct-May 3) 5.4" as third snowiest month = historically great snow season - 32.6" Oct-May Were Albuquerque snow totals for the month to remain unchanged, I would rate the odds of option one at ~26%, option two at ~70%, and option three at ~4%. All that being said, if we get to 7", 8", 9", 10", 15", 20" somehow for the month, then Dec is very likely to be our snowiest month. I think we probably get at least a couple more inches this month given how wet and slow the last storm was. El Nino here is normally a 7.2", 3.8", 1.8", 0.5" pattern here for the snowiest four months. Months in the 5-6 range are kind of unusual here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Another Winter storm watch for the northeast parts of Colorado (eastern Weld County, Morgan County, Akron, Sterling, Julesburg). This is going to be a pretty big storm for Wyoming, Montana, Utah, and South Dakota. 8" at high elevations here in Colorado. I would imagine that a number of ski areas will have gotten at least 20" since Thurs/Friday of last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 According to Sheldon Cooper, it is a bracing cold, an invigorating cold in Bozeman, Montana. Actually it is 29 degrees with 1/2 mile visibility snow. KBZN 141624Z 33011KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV014 M02/M03 A2959 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 3/4 P0000 T10171033 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 We have at least 6 inches here in Stapleton. Highest single day accumulation we've had in the three years we've been in our home, to my knowledge. Drifts IMBY are 18 to 24 inches as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 9" here in Boulder - my first real snowstorm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 This is a storm. None of this melting on the pavement like it did on Saturday. I estimate 7 to 8", with a few wind gusts of 15-20mph here. We have a few drifts but nothing major right here. snow started at 1AM or later. 0834z (1:34AM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Sea level pressure was 991.4mb at La Junta Colorado at 1053z (3:53AM) KLHX 151053Z AUTO 31009KT 10SM BKN060 M03/M04 A2928 RMK AO2 SNE27 SLP914 P0000 T10331044 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 19° here in Thornton, snow still coming down nicely. Eyeballing 6-8" with some nice drifts. Will head out and measure shortly. Glad I don't have to be anywhere today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cxc292 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 That band doesn't want to budge. Looks like over 12" out there in southeast Aurora. but the blowing is making it hard to tell. Some drifts to 2 feet, other places you can see the grass. Nice over performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 11" at our house (8" by 8 AM, cleared board, 3" since). Winding down. Guessing about 12:1 ratio, just by feel, maybe a little higher. You could say this was an overperformer, I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Here is my picture of the 9.25" snow depth. I adjusted the contrast so I could see the top of the snow. I had 8 to 10" of snow depth. (I think it's all new snow depth) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cxc292 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Considering last night 3-6" seemed to be the consensus, I'd say 12" is an over performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Big time over preformer! Received 10.5" in Castle Rock and 18" down in Perry Park! We are up to 38" for the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 General trend in Nov-Dec seems to be storms have been ending up a bit south of forecast - obviously good for CO in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 You guys are right. Given forecasts of nearly 0" a few days before this, and upgrade to 3" on the NWS Boulder forecast, then 6" winter storm warning just before it started, it still overperformed above that 6" for my house. It was pretty windy in a bunch of areas. The winds increased through the storm and topped out with 45mph NW gusts outside of town here after the snow had stopped, probably leading to more drifting than normal. The 500mb low did move farther south than forecast about 2+ days beforehand. I think you are right in saying that this El Nino winter will have some 500mb disturbances farther south than normal. Perhaps with some disturbances will track south to northern Mexico, as in 1997. Whether or not the models predict the 500mb lows in the right places, who the hell knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Mountain snowpack and percent of normal precipitation is looking good for a bunch of western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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