weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 Might be a dumb question but are the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and Western Pacific (WP) pattern the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ch3nna Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 What's the difference between 2m and 850 hPa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ch3nna Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Dec 18-20 seems to be the timeframe for a potential cold shot. Also nice call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 What's the difference between 2m and 850 hPa? 2m is 2 meters off the ground...850mb is on the average about 5000ft above sea-level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ch3nna Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 2m is 2 meters off the ground...850mb is on the average about 5000ft above sea-level Does the euro have a 2m anomaly map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 What's the difference between 2m and 850 hPa? 2m is just above the surface readings ~6ft, usually just temps are measured. 850hPa is ~5,000 feet or ~1700m give or take the location at which you are trying to measure. This is an important layer for p-types in winterstorms. Hope that maybe answers your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ch3nna Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 2m is just above the surface readings ~6ft, usually just temps are measured. 850hPa is ~5,000 feet or ~1700m give or take the location at which you are trying to measure. This is an important layer for p-types in winterstorms. Hope that maybe answers your question. Yeah definitely thank you. Do you know where I can find a free euro 2m map? Tropical tidbits only had 850 for the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 In a mets opinion or anyone for that matter, which is the most important teleconnection index for snowfall/storms in SNE? +PNA/-NAO/-AO combination? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Does the euro have a 2m anomaly map? yeah but its not offered on free sites...at least that I'm aware of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Yeah definitely thank you. Do you know where I can find a free euro 2m map? Tropical tidbits only had 850 for the euro I havent been able to find it on free sites. I have access to accu pro for the Euro. In a mets opinion or anyone for that matter, which is the most important teleconnection index for snowfall/storms in SNE? +PNA/-NAO/-AO combination? There is no definitive on that. you can have a positive NAO and get a snowstorm in SNE and other places as we have seen in the past. AO relates more to a cold or warm pattern from what im seeing and correlates well, sometimes, with the NAO. The PNA can only amplify the scenario of the AO and NAO. If i had to say a tele that works best I would say NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I havent been able to find it on free sites. I have access to accu pro for the Euro. There is no definitive on that. you can have a positive NAO and get a snowstorm in SNE and other places as we have seen in the past. AO relates more to a cold or warm pattern from what im seeing and correlates well, sometimes, with the NAO. The PNA can only amplify the scenario of the AO and NAO. If i had to say a tele that works best I would say NAO If I could choose one index to have on my side, it would be the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 For large SNE snowstorms, I believe the PNA is the single most important index...but it is less important for us than it is down in the M.A. If you are simply talking like 6"+ snow events, then the PNA becomes even less important and the AO is probably the most important factor...EPO is close too, but it only means there's a lot of cold available and not necessarily a good pattern for snow. For these 6"+ events, it is far more important to have an active pattern than anything else...so the index numbers themselves don't have the highest correlations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 For large SNE snowstorms, I believe the PNA is the single most important index...but it is less important for us than it is down in the M.A. If you are simply talking like 6"+ snow events, then the PNA becomes even less important and the AO is probably the most important factor...EPO is close too, but it only means there's a lot of cold available and not necessarily a good pattern for snow. For these 6"+ events, it is far more important to have an active pattern than anything else...so the index numbers themselves don't have the highest correlations. True....I was speaking more winter in general, while he was asking specifically about large sne snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 In February of 1983 what allowed for the extension of those positive height anomalies into the north-central tier and northeastern tier of the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Another question...something like this I've never understood. See how across much of the central/eastern United States you have below-average height anomalies while across Canada you have above-average height anomalies (which don't seem to be associated with any ridging judging by the looks of the heights. How/why would something like this happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 It happens because naturally when there are higher heights in the upper latitudes, that cold and its associated lower heights drift southward, into the mid latitudes. Remember, everything is RELATIVE.....thus these are anomalies. Just because there are higher heights over some eskimo's hut, doesn't mean it is warmer up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 It happens because naturally when there are higher heights in the upper latitudes, that cold and its associated lower heights drift southward, into the mid latitudes. Remember, everything is RELATIVE.....thus these are anomalies. Just because there are higher heights over some eskimo's hut, doesn't mean it is warmer up there. just got a similar answer from someone else and now that I see that it makes a tremendous amount of sense. So basically in this case that portion of Canada is under a very weak trough but associated with height anomalies which are still way above-average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 just got a similar answer from someone else and now that I see that it makes a tremendous amount of sense. So basically in this case that portion of Canada is under a very weak trough but associated with height anomalies which are still way above-average. Yea....think about what a trough is.....its a dipping south of the jet stream, bringing polar air southward. Well, what is going to happen near the pole when you remove that very cold air? It will modify.......heights are lowest up there when the jet is tight and constricted, ala positive AO. It bottles the cold up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Yea....think about what a trough is.....its a dipping south of the jet stream, bringing polar air southward. Well, what is going to happen near the pole when you remove that very cold air? It will modify.......heights are lowest up there when the jet is tight and constricted, ala positive AO. It bottles the cold up there. Holy ****...dude that's a great concrete way to break it down and think about it. I'm like writing a revised winter outlook b/c of how late it already is. What I'm doing is virtually recapping December and why December happened the way it did and then just discussing how the pattern may evolve going forward...I've been working on a Jan. forecast for like 7 hours now lol...not really sure what to do. The pattern definitely looks to change, at least for the first part of the month, however, the one issue just seems to be a lack of cold...not that this means anything when it comes to snow potential. I may leave out snow/precip forecast though only b/c I have zero confidence with that sort of stuff. I should have this posted in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Holy ****...dude that's a great concrete way to break it down and think about it. I'm like writing a revised winter outlook b/c of how late it already is. What I'm doing is virtually recapping December and why December happened the way it did and then just discussing how the pattern may evolve going forward...I've been working on a Jan. forecast for like 7 hours now lol...not really sure what to do. The pattern definitely looks to change, at least for the first part of the month, however, the one issue just seems to be a lack of cold...not that this means anything when it comes to snow potential. I may leave out snow/precip forecast though only b/c I have zero confidence with that sort of stuff. I should have this posted in the AM Its great to get it right, don't get me wrong, but half of the reason why we exert ourselves in these arduous efforts is to grow from them. If you do everything you can to learn as much as you can, and then avail yourself of the mistakes by converting errors into opportunity, then the verification will ultimately come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Its great to get it right, don't get me wrong, but half of the reason why we exert ourselves in these arduous efforts is to grow from them. If you do everything you can to learn as much as you can, and then avail yourself of the mistakes by converting errors into opportunity, then the verification will ultimately come. I completely agree...I try not to get myself down for getting something wrong b/c you need to take that experience in order to grow and continue learning. If you were to get it right all the time you probably would never push yourself to want to learn or understand more. The great thing with long-range forecasting (and forecasting in general) is there will always be something to learn. For example, I've become pretty obsessed with the stratosphere and such and just trying to learn as much as I can and study. I just wish I had more free time to do so...between work and school I get virtually no free time and when I do I'm too exhausted to do anything lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The people who are right most often have been wrong plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Does anyone know of a good place to read up on AAM? Im trying to better understand its effects and have been unable to find decent sites or articles for explanation. Also if possible are there sites to be able to get the data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Does anyone know of a good place to read up on AAM? Im trying to better understand its effects and have been unable to find decent sites or articles for explanation. Also if possible are there sites to be able to get the data? This...I've been searching as well. As for data...sign up here http://info.wdtinc.com/wdt-futures-offers-aam-plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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