NwWhiteOut Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Lightly snowing here, anyone else? 20 percent chance, yep lol. It was coming down fairly good about 8 minutes ago! Very exciting even though its too warm to stick on anything. Shame it couldnt be doing this next week, which Is going to royally suck if those predicted temps in the 60's actually happen . Will be the warmest xmas I have ever seen in my 41 years if it does infact happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Lightly snowing here, anyone else? 20 percent chance, yep lol. It was coming down fairly good about 8 minutes ago! Very exciting even though its too warm to stick on anything. Shame it couldnt be doing this next week, which Is going to royally suck if those predicted temps in the 60's actually happen . Will be the warmest xmas I have ever seen in my 41 years if it does infact happen! Had a few pretty good bursts of snow over this way. It was nice to see. Hoping for more soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 00z model runs all have something coming out of the SW in about 9-10 days. At this point, looks west of us, but those in central KS down to central OK and points west may want to watch it for some frozen variety of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 06z GFS was absolutely loaded. If it can get to full blown Arklatex style low and then cut north it would really be great to see. Buying my WxBell subscription back this afternoon, hope I don't ginx us all! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Yes 6z looked very promising for the southern plains after Christmas. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Yep 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Another big rain event here. Plenty of time for it to shift around a bit. That looks like a really wrapped storm u can tell by the temps. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Another big rain event here. Plenty of time for it to shift around a bit. That looks like a really wrapped storm u can tell by the temps. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A Yep, it'll probably end up in western Kansas, as per the usual this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Just 140 miles further east to go.... Just one time can we get a south and east trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 You'll never guess where the 12z Euro had the snow...... Western and Northern Kansas. Not completely going to write this off yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Wow surprise there. I'm gonna hold onto this one a bit longer too. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Bowling ball look. All 3 major models have it. Euro is deepest and the positioning is in between the GEM which is farther east and the GFS which is farther west. The GEM is the warmest though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Wow. Nice storm, tho. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 You'll never guess where the 12z Euro had the snow...... Western and Northern Kansas. Not completely going to write this off yet though. I'm not either. There's a chance that it could push that ridge east a little further or come in deeper/further south. It's not really typical for that type of storm to just cut right to the lakes so quickly so we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'm not either. There's a chance that it could push that ridge east a little further or come in deeper/further south. It's not really typical for that type of storm to just cut right to the lakes so quickly so we will see. Well, if this was an El Nino year *cough* *cough* we'd have a bowling ball traveling across the southern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 18z GFS had a pretty good track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Hell yah game on! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Lock it in. No more moving. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Now THAT is a forecast!!! LOCK IT IN!!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 19, 2015 Author Share Posted December 19, 2015 I like the EURO trend with this over the last 4 runs it has. Looked through them all finally. Hoping that big 'H' over the top can force it to keep south enough for some fun for all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 The 12z Euro parallel run had the snow/frozen over SE MO and NE AR. Quite a difference from the operational run which was over W KS to N KS. Hopefully this system sticks around for something to track at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 19, 2015 Author Share Posted December 19, 2015 The 12z Euro parallel run had the snow/frozen over SE MO and NE AR. Quite a difference from the operational run which was over W KS to N KS. Hopefully this system sticks around for something to track at least. Yeah, very weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Oh you guys are going to jinx us all buying into these long range runs, I have to be the negative nancy sorry lol. I'm not buying into anything this far out haha. Don't hate me too much ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 19, 2015 Author Share Posted December 19, 2015 Oh you guys are going to jinx us all buying into these long range runs, I have to be the negative nancy sorry lol. I'm not buying into anything this far out haha. Don't hate me too much ok I don't hate you. Reverse psychology. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Jomo, what it gonna take for troughiness to shift east instead of west the whole time? As long as trough stays west, we in trouble. I want to see a decent ssw myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Jomo, what it gonna take for troughiness to shift east instead of west the whole time? As long as trough stays west, we in trouble. I want to see a decent ssw myselfTo start we need a NE PAC low over/south of the Aleutians instead of a ridge, that would be a start. We are seeing a shake up around New Years and then I hope we start seeing pac low develop. Weakened PV will help in coordination. We need everything that is blue and red/yellow to swap...so a true flip in the pattern. Jomo - agree/disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 To start we need a NE PAC low over/south of the Aleutians instead of a ridge, that would be a start. We are seeing a shake up around New Years and then I hope we start seeing pac low develop. Weakened PV will help in coordination. We need everything that is blue and red/yellow to swap...so a true flip in the pattern. Jomo - agree/disagree? Ncrain, i also think mjo being in certain phases is important. Think mjo goes back into cod. If it reemerges in the warm phases, we phuked. Jb even said game over. Convection in indian ocean isnt our friend imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Ncrain, i also think mjo being in certain phases is important. Think mjo goes back into cod. If it reemerges in the warm phases, we phuked. Jb even said game over. Convection in indian ocean isnt our friend imo Yeah, I am surprised about how active MJO has been, thinking it fades Into the new year. Nino climo should take over as we get into Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Well, we're back to a rainstorm and lack of cold air on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Jomo, what it gonna take for troughiness to shift east instead of west the whole time? As long as trough stays west, we in trouble. I want to see a decent ssw myself Icebergs dropped in the ENSO region to cool it down. Like giant ice cubes. I'm still waiting on the subtropical jet to show up and stick around. I've been curious if the overall warm Pacific waters and strong PV has played a role in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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