CAPE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: Just read Mount Hollys forecast discussion, they are banking on high ratios to get to the 12 to 18" they show on their current snow map. A lot of caveats in the discussion for our region regarding lower potential totals due to rain and mixing, so their current map is basically best case scenario. I would go 6-10" max unless the models trend souther/colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I would go 6-10" max unless the models trend souther/colder. Agreed. The 0z fv3 hi-res looks intriguing, for what that is worth at this range or any range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, SnowtoRain said: Agreed. The 0z fv3 hi-res looks intriguing, for what that is worth at this range or any range Yeah I just posted a map in the main thread. Not really in range but it does look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6z Euro slightly less aggressive with the ground level warm air push across Delmarva, basically east of the portion of rt 50 that runs north to south is where it gets above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 NAM also holds ground temps colder for longer but less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Looks like GFS and Euro are slowly starting to meet in the middle. Suspect the rain/ice line will setup somewhere just west of Easton in the end. Obviously, much of precip type/amount and how quick things change over is more of day of thing in a situation like this. GFS likes to give us a nice thump of snow still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I stg next weeks storm better not be too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Forcast has not changed. Biggest factors are thump and ground temps, both things models will keep waffling on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 WBOC said the rain is gonna wash away my snow. Blech. If we went through a week of tracking and I don't even get a snowpack out of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Looks like we will all see rain at some point with this storm. Soil temps should be at or below freezing so I am not sure if that provides some buffer to the snow when there is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 @CAPEaneed @csnavywx, whats the latest? 2 to 6" of snow, 1" of sleet, 0.25" of freezing rain, followed by rain? Seems like icing impacts could be alleviated by marginal temps and change to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 49 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: @CAPEaneed @csnavywx, whats the latest? 2 to 6" of snow, 1" of sleet, 0.25" of freezing rain, followed by rain? Seems like icing impacts could be alleviated by marginal temps and change to rain? You have the perfect screen name for this- unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 48 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: @CAPEaneed @csnavywx, whats the latest? 2 to 6" of snow, 1" of sleet, 0.25" of freezing rain, followed by rain? Seems like icing impacts could be alleviated by marginal temps and change to rain? The snow part depends on how hot and heavy it is at the beginning. We need it to come in and go moderate to heavy pretty quickly, and for the snow to last several hours. That's our chance to pick up 5 or 6" before the sleet takes over. As for freezing rain, it looks like there is a decent chance for you and I to pick up a quarter inch of ice, then maybe ending as plain rain with a temp of 33-34. Closer to the coast there will be a a longer duration of rain, and little to no zr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Ugh, much as I hate it, I'd rather have the plain rain instead of zr. No power outages, thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I'd get so pissed as a kid. never understood how it could be 15 then 6 hours later 40 and rain. some things never change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I’m not looking at next Sunday’s snow map from today’s 12z GFS. Not doing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said: I’m not looking at next Sunday’s snow map from today’s 12z GFS. Not doing it I did....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Im interested to see if we can eek out an inch or two Weds night to Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Anyone seeing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsq Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said: Anyone seeing anything? Just Virga in huntingtown. At least DP is up to 7 now...thats climbing steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsq Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 11 minutes ago, hsq said: Just Virga in huntingtown. At least DP is up to 7 now...thats climbing steadily. Nevermind. Very light snow ❄️ finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 First pixie dust flakes in Easton, extremely light but basically no virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 CC says snow is on my doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Flurries have begun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3" on ground. Pouring sleet now. 18F. Coastal front appears to be set up over on the lower eastern shore (coastal side), but moving a bit slower than forecasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 14.5, heavy snow, closing in on 3" in Easton. Sleet line looks to be at very lower Dorchester county extending across to the Patuxent. Running about 2 to 5 degrees colder than mesos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 21 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: 14.5, heavy snow, closing in on 3" in Easton. Sleet line looks to be at very lower Dorchester county extending across to the Patuxent. Running about 2 to 5 degrees colder than mesos. We flipped a while ago. But the sub-warm nose layer is so cold we are mixing fine powdery snow (from precip seeding) again. Pretty nice bonus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 19 sleet city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 @csnavywxany thoughts on if the ground level cold will hold out longer? Most mesos have our region 33 to 35 for a period this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: @csnavywxany thoughts on if the ground level cold will hold out longer? Most mesos have our region 33 to 35 for a period this afternoon. Well the mesos all have everyone just south and east of Salisbury above freezing already. They're struggling a bit with this sharp coastal front that has developed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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