Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

[AlexD1990]

13 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

If all of that wasn't enough to get excited about, some of these soundings are exhibiting the potential for some thundersnow (this one's from Dover):

I've seen it twice in my life. God this really could be something special? I haven't stayed up for a snowstorm in a decade lol.

[SnowtoRain]

Euro says what storm? 36 hours out and big disparity, seems a bit unusual

[SnowtoRain]

Would have been nice if guidance converged, I still like my earlier post of Greenwood, DE to the Atlantic Coast. I have a hard time believing the GFS. 

[SnowtoRain]

NAMs no change really still looks good for our region, more across DE 

[Lowershoresadness]

that max is shifting around. who will be the lucky one?

[csnavywx]

Getting dangerously close to forming a moist absolutely unstable layer (MAUL) in the boundary layer here. Wind is going to be a very serious issue.

[Lowershoresadness]

5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Getting dangerously close to forming a moist absolutely unstable layer (MAUL) in the boundary layer here. Wind is going to be a very serious issue.

how confident are you that this is the real deal?  I don't have any comps for a storm like this the past 50 years

[AlexD1990]

Waking up to a blizzard warning is surreal

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Waking up to a blizzard warning is surreal

For me, waking up at 10AM is surreal.  I'm jealous for both the blizzard and the sleep.

[AlexD1990]

23 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

For me, waking up at 10AM is surreal.  I'm jealous for both the blizzard and the sleep.

Battling a head cold that is part 2 of bronchitis that I've had since the snowcrete storm, lol. I work a 9-5 mon-fri, so I get every bit of sleep on the weekends anyway. Plus I've been up late watching model runs for a week 

[SnowtoRain]

Probabilistic  snowfall range 1 to 16". 

[csnavywx]

27 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

how confident are you that this is the real deal?  I don't have any comps for a storm like this the past 50 years

Looks like the real McCoy to me for you folks on the Eastern Shore:

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, SnowtoRain said:

Probabilistic  snowfall range 1 to 16". 

LOL those tools are useless.

Anyway the 12z CMC took a nice step in the right direction.

[AlexD1990]

So do we have the sloppy ratios, or do the heavy rates make up for it

[Lowershoresadness]

the  nina is throwing us a farewell party

[SnowtoRain]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

LOL those tools are useless.

Anyway the 12z CMC took a nice step in the right direction.

Nice jump, one more nudge west and we are really cooking. curious to see what Euro will do since it has been similar to cmc

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

So do we have the sloppy ratios, or do the heavy rates make up for it

In the banding the ratios will be higher with the bigger more 'airy' dendrites