Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

[Lowershoresadness]

I mean I think I have broken a record this year with the most digital snow ever

[Prestige Worldwide]

6 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said:

I mean I think I have broken a record this year with the most digital snow ever

Truth- easily over 100” of digital gold this year.  Unfortunately I’ve only had around 6” of actual snow.  
I believe we are this years winner of the most digital snow in the free world 

[SnowtoRain]

So what are we dealing with? GFS gives a nice dream-like coastal with heavy snow or Euro et al. show an  IVT and our best hope is the IVT sets up right over us. Seems like some narrow goalposts. @CAPE @csnavywx any deeper thoughts? 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, SnowtoRain said:

So what are we dealing with? GFS gives a nice dream-like coastal with heavy snow or Euro et al. show an  IVT and our best hope is the IVT sets up right over us. Seems like some narrow goalposts. @CAPE @csnavywx any deeper thoughts? 

 

 

 

Looking at the changes at h5 that the Euro just made- towards the GFS- IMO we should see the Euro trend more to the GFS idea the next few runs. Should be interesting

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, SnowtoRain said:

So what are we dealing with? GFS gives a nice dream-like coastal with heavy snow or Euro et al. show an  IVT and our best hope is the IVT sets up right over us. Seems like some narrow goalposts. @CAPE @csnavywx any deeper thoughts? 

 

 

 

Narrow is right. It's not as simple as simply coastal vs. norlun/inverted trough though. Even a partial tuck will result in a lot stronger convergence into the trough and much better moisture feed. So the "in between" solution is significant rain to snow along and on the north side of the surface trough. Of course, if we're really fortunate enough to get a coastal (still pretty skeptical on a full capture), then we're dealing with another beast entirely.

BL temps are pretty poor starting out, so expect to have to waste a considerable amount of liquid getting that fixed. The stronger the lift and/or low, the faster that gets fixed.

[SnowtoRain]

@CAPE @csnavywx thanks for the quick recap, appreciate not having to wade through the main thread to get to the main things to track over the next runs

 

 

 

[AlexD1990]

The fact that other guidance is trending towards the GFS is quite frankly shocking, but very encouraging. Looks like newest GFS has some rain, but should still switch over

[SnowtoRain]

GFS is consistent with basically a hurricane forming off the lower shore of VA and dropping buckets of heavy snow. This is the 5th model run with a similar outcome. Not sure if all the ingredients were the same but the outcome is. Curious to say the least, especially only 48 hours out before the storm starts for parts of our region.