Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

early thoughts for weekend?   no way am I biting yet, down here we are always on the warm side of the low

Triple phaser. Great if it works, but as always, delicate with timing. Suspect there will be some changes until Wed. So far, so good on trends. Plenty of cold air, so there's a chance of staying snow even if it gets fairly close. Suspect the main fail modes are a phase miss (and we get some consolation snow a la last Feb) via being too progressive or it overamps and we have to deal with a narrow mixing zone.

[AlexD1990]

Feeling good about where this part of the subforum sits. Will be interesting to see how model trends play out over the next few days.

[AlexD1990]

when the main thread is doom and gloom even tho most guidance still shows accumulating snow over here is a good sign.

[SOMDweather]

17 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

when the main thread is doom and gloom even tho most guidance still shows accumulating snow over here is a good sign.

Got that right

[csnavywx]

Run to run variability seems to have calmed down somewhat. A hold through tomorrow gets me bullish.

[csnavywx]

On 1/22/2026 at 12:24 PM, csnavywx said:

Run to run variability has calmed down since 00Z last night and while I think we get a bit more adjustment south/slower, it's probably not going to be enough to save the eastern shore from changing over to all rain at this point. Enjoy the front-end thump, it'll probably only last a few hours before flipping to sleet and (briefly) ZR. Inshore is going to have a rough time of it, especially immediately away from the Bay. Hopefully we get near or just above freezing here late Sunday and at least pause the icing before it starts back up overnight.

3-6" Eastern Shore + 1" sleet, then brief freezing rain to rain; DE side will get more snow (add an inch or two) before changeover to sleet.

4-9" inshore southern MD, + 1" sleet, then 0.25-0.75" ZR

A band of heavy convective rain showers is looking increasingly possible overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. If the coastal has developed sufficiently, then northwest flow should advect the remaining CAD wedge back into the inshore area and result in some additional quick accretion of ZR overnight.

Am a bit concerned about some freezing drizzle and/or light snow on Monday ahead of the big upper trough. Still some moisture left below 700mb after the dry slot comes through.

E. Shore -- overdid snow (flipped early), about right with sleet and rain flip.

Inshore -- overdid snow, underdid sleet (flipped early), about right with ZR (0.3-0.4 IMBY).

We got the heavy rain showers (as freezing rain) but the CAD ended up chasing the precip out, so very little/no ZR on eastern shore.

We did indeed get some light snow today over the inshore areas w/ the big upper trough.

All in all, not too bad. Flipping sleet 2-3 hours earlier would've almost entirely corrected this to reality, so B/B-.

[AlexD1990]

Well, the CMC is clearly on crack. But what I wouldn't give. That would be the largest snowstorm of my life, it would beat 2010

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I’m hugging the GFS (yes I’m stupid ). Hoping SOMD can get skimmed in Beach Blizzard III; we managed a WSW for I and II in 2017 and 2018. 

[SnowtoRain]

11 hours ago, csnavywx said:

E. Shore -- overdid snow (flipped early), about right with sleet and rain flip.

Inshore -- overdid snow, underdid sleet (flipped early), about right with ZR (0.3-0.4 IMBY).

We got the heavy rain showers (as freezing rain) but the CAD ended up chasing the precip out, so very little/no ZR on eastern shore.

We did indeed get some light snow today over the inshore areas w/ the big upper trough.

All in all, not too bad. Flipping sleet 2-3 hours earlier would've almost entirely corrected this to reality, so B/B-.

I think for eastern shore you were pretty accurate. The gradient was approx. 2" down near Salisbury to 7" up near Chestertown.

[SnowtoRain]

@AlexD1990this is shaping up to be s beach storm only, I hope it stays this way for you! 

 

[SOMDweather]

Trying to sift through the whining and complaining in the main thread, how are we looking?  Looks like we still have a shot for something moderate+?

[AlexD1990]

7 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

@AlexD1990this is shaping up to be s beach storm only, I hope it stays this way for you! 

 

I certainly wouldn't mind, but it would be nice for everyone to get hit, tbh. I'm not greedy, I just don't want rain while others get 2 feet.

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, SOMDweather said:

Trying to sift through the whining and complaining in the main thread, how are we looking?  Looks like we still have a shot for something moderate+?

Storms like this are the ones where it becomes very hard to try and figure out the overall feel for the storm rm, because the majority of folks live outside of the potential impact area. It seems to me at least, that even the "bad" or "whiff" scenarios still give most of the Delmarva accumulating snow, so I think we have that in our favor at least.

[csnavywx]

AI-GFS and EC-AIFS are on top of each other on this morning's 6Z run. Not much room to maneuver from here though. Gonna be a tough one unless we can get a faster tuck, neg tilt or a slightly stronger/amped and separated northern stream wave.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

23 minutes ago, SOMDweather said:

Trying to sift through the whining and complaining in the main thread, how are we looking?  Looks like we still have a shot for something moderate+?

This is probably an event we’re all gonna have to track ITT as the main subforum (mostly outside our area) have largely given up.