Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

[SnowtoRain]

Ended up with around .5 to .75, bottom layer was ice.

[AlexD1990]

What a surprise, the wind is back.

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[Prestige Worldwide]

Next weekend and the week after will make or break our winter- hopefully we cash in big time.  Good luck to us 

[csnavywx]

Agree. Hard to get a better large scale pattern than this for us.

[Lowershoresadness]

17 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Agree. Hard to get a better large scale pattern than this for us.

all the colors are in the right place!  Bring this one to us CSN

[csnavywx]

4 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

all the colors are in the right place!  Bring this one to us CSN

Normally we lose out in these CAD-type storms. This one looking different. Northern stream looks strong and suppressive and the subtropical jet is finally coming back from the dead.

[csnavywx]

Still want one more day of runs before I start barking. Time enough to let the SW cutoff and northern stream settle down.

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Still want one more day of runs before I start barking. Time enough to let the SW cutoff and northern stream settle down.

This is what I told my Dad. Cautiously optimistic, but not completely in the fully sold category. 

[SnowtoRain]

12 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Still want one more day of runs before I start barking. Time enough to let the SW cutoff and northern stream settle down.

Yeah, if it is still looking good at the end of Weds I will get invested. Getting any substantial precipitation this past year has been tough.  

[csnavywx]

13 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is what I told my Dad. Cautiously optimistic, but not completely in the fully sold category. 

Getting sold on at least a very solid front-end thump. I had some concerns with the slowing trend in the southern stream. 6Z GFS finally flipping away from holding the cutoff back makes me think that failure mode is sliding off the table. It was an outlier ofc, but if even the outlier is moving away from that scenario, it makes it less of a threat. The TPV has trended slow enough that the eastern lobe of that cAk high pressure will be solidly in place to prevent the incipient low from moving west of the mountains.

So the question is now how clean of a coastal transfer we get and how far north that occurs.

A phase between the cutoff and the trailing N/S wave would cause the WCB/warm nose to advance further north and perhaps cut into totals here. A partial phase or a simple kick probably still doesn't. But something to look out for on the latter part of the storm.

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Getting sold on at least a very solid front-end thump. I had some concerns with the slowing trend in the southern stream. 6Z GFS finally flipping away from holding the cutoff back makes me think that failure mode is sliding off the table. It was an outlier ofc, but if even the outlier is moving away from that scenario, it makes it less of a threat. The TPV has trended slow enough that the eastern lobe of that cAk high pressure will be solidly in place to prevent the incipient low from moving west of the mountains.

So the question is now how clean of a coastal transfer we get and how far north that occurs.

A phase between the cutoff and the trailing N/S wave would cause the WCB/warm nose to advance further north and perhaps cut into totals here. A partial phase or a simple kick probably still doesn't. But something to look out for on the latter part of the storm.

This area does mix in most of the big storms, so I guess its to be expected. 

[kcones88]

Is it looking more likely that we'll stay dry all of Saturday? 

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, kcones88 said:

Is it looking more likely that we'll stay dry all of Saturday? 

Yes.

[csnavywx]

The floor is rising. 18Z runs are no longer slowing down the southern stream and we have some buffer room if it decides to come more north. GFS is no longer the odd man out. I do expect the NBM means to peak right around now as some of the extreme tails get clipped (and there aren't that many duds left to fill in). So don't be surprised if that comes down a hair. Should be able to do a first guess map by tomorrow at this rate.

[Lowershoresadness]

55 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The floor is rising. 18Z runs are no longer slowing down the southern stream and we have some buffer room if it decides to come more north. GFS is no longer the odd man out. I do expect the NBM means to peak right around now as some of the extreme tails get clipped (and there aren't that many duds left to fill in). So don't be surprised if that comes down a hair. Should be able to do a first guess map by tomorrow at this rate.

haven't had time to pay attention.  are we at a yellow alert or red alert

[csnavywx]

44 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

haven't had time to pay attention.  are we at a yellow alert or red alert

More like orange at this point. All systems go for red tomorrow if this holds.

[AlexD1990]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

More like orange at this point. All systems go for red tomorrow if this holds.

I'm nervous about mixing, but I suppose it wouldn't be the end of the world. a nice glaze to hold my 12"+ snowpack in...

[MillvilleWx]

9 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Getting sold on at least a very solid front-end thump. I had some concerns with the slowing trend in the southern stream. 6Z GFS finally flipping away from holding the cutoff back makes me think that failure mode is sliding off the table. It was an outlier ofc, but if even the outlier is moving away from that scenario, it makes it less of a threat. The TPV has trended slow enough that the eastern lobe of that cAk high pressure will be solidly in place to prevent the incipient low from moving west of the mountains.

So the question is now how clean of a coastal transfer we get and how far north that occurs.

A phase between the cutoff and the trailing N/S wave would cause the WCB/warm nose to advance further north and perhaps cut into totals here. A partial phase or a simple kick probably still doesn't. But something to look out for on the latter part of the storm.

I’m in almost fully sold mode right now. Still want a full day of runs to 00z Thursday. If it holds through then, I’ll start making my forecast. This is shaping up to be a big dog my friend. Cheers to a whopping this weekend! 

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I’m in almost fully sold mode right now. Still want a full day of runs to 00z Thursday. If it holds through then, I’ll start making my forecast. This is shaping up to be a big dog my friend. Cheers to a whopping this weekend! 

Agreed on the big dog. We're waiting until the 12Z runs tomorrow at the office. Should have the main players mostly nailed down at that point. I'm personally kinda split between a solid 12-16" or a 9-13" w/some trailing mix.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

More like orange at this point. All systems go for red tomorrow if this holds.

Red alert?????

[SnowtoRain]

With any of these bigger storms I always get flashbacks to the January 2016 storm, nice front end thump, going to bed with heavy snow falling and over 8" on the ground. Then waking up in a panic because of the sound of torrential rain.  I had not shoveled anything yet and there is a drain near the back door that stops water from getting into the house that needed to be cleared. So I half awake stumble out the back door to be greeted to the most hellaciously heavy sleet I have ever seen. Ended up with 10" of snow, 2" of sleet on top of that and then 1" of snow to cap it off  from the all day flurries we got while the western shore was beaten down with heavy snow. 

I learned from that storm never trust the deformation band will eventually make it to the Eastern Shore because by the time it does the storm is pulling away and that band is long gone. Also, as nice as it is to have a detached garage behind the house, it is hell to dig out.

Probably one of my least favorite major snow events...

 

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, SnowtoRain said:

With any of these bigger storms I always get flashbacks to the January 2016 storm, nice front end thump, going to bed with heavy snow falling and over 8" on the ground. Then waking up in a panic because of the sound of torrential rain.  I had not shoveled anything yet and there is a drain near the back door that stops water from getting into the house that needed to be cleared. So I half awake stumble out the back door to be greeted to the most hellaciously heavy sleet I have ever seen. Ended up with 10" of snow, 2" of sleet on top and then 1" of snow on top of that from the all day flurries we got while the western shore was beaten down with heavy snow. 

I learned from that storm never trust the deformation band will eventually make it to the Eastern Shore because by the time it does the storm is pulling away and that band is long gone. Also, as nice as it is to have a detached garage behind the house, it is hell to dig out.

Probably one of my least favorite major snow events...

 

couldn't agree more. obviously west of the Bay 2016 was a special beast, but over here, from a snow stand point, it was very sad. Started as puking snow, got I think 5-7", which disappeared under torrential rain and was gone by the morning. The only thing i'll say in its favor was that the winds from it were seriously legit. Dewey Beach recorded a gust to hurricane force, and I happened to be outside probably when that same wind blast hit in Lewes, and watched part of the roof of an apartment building behind my folks house get literally ripped off, tossed into the air, and landed in the parking lot of the Arbys next door. So that was fun, I guess

[SnowtoRain]

0z runs not as favorable for us on the Delmarva, by this time tomorrow we should know more or less where we stand. 

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

0z runs not as favorable for us on the Delmarva, by this time tomorrow we should know more or less where we stand. 

GFS wasn't bad, but CMC would be dog shite, altho I haven't seen the clown maps. onto the euro...

[AlexD1990]

Well fuck. Maybe the feb2 storm will be better....or maybe this one comes back. This really can be a fucking frustrating hobby sometimes 

[SnowtoRain]

Pointing more towards a climo based storm. Not sure if I buy >.5" of freezing rain the Euro wants to give the midshore. GFS has been showing the typical subsidence that sets up over the Eastern Shore. Sounds like from NOAA discussion in the main thread they are still waiting to verify the north trend with better data, so we wait. Perhaps this evening we can start getting a better handle on potential amounts and p-type. 

[csnavywx]

The northern stream is going to be problematic. The one time we actually don't want a triple-phaser. In this case, too early to get cute about where the mix line sets up, namely because both the kicker and the main trailing N/S shortwaves are still over the Russia and the Arctic Ocean and haven't yet become their own entities. My guess is we're going to get flung around for a while. Good news is anything but the perfect phase on the 00Z euro and ukie should result in a retreat south with time. Saw a bit of that on the 06Z Euro. A retreat or slowing of the primary N/S beyond what has already been modeled should result in an increasingly positive tilted trough that comes out more piecemeal than perfect.

[AlexD1990]

38 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The northern stream is going to be problematic. The one time we actually don't want a triple-phaser. In this case, too early to get cute about where the mix line sets up, namely because both the kicker and the main trailing N/S shortwaves are still over the Russia and the Arctic Ocean and haven't yet become their own entities. My guess is we're going to get flung around for a while. Good news is anything but the perfect phase on the 00Z euro and ukie should result in a retreat south with time. Saw a bit of that on the 06Z Euro. A retreat or slowing of the primary N/S beyond what has already been modeled should result in an increasingly positive tilted trough that comes out more piecemeal than perfect.

It does still seem to me that the floor for this event is still pretty high comparatively, even with the mixing threat.