Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

[SnowtoRain]

Ended up with around .5 to .75, bottom layer was ice.

[AlexD1990]

What a surprise, the wind is back.

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[Prestige Worldwide]

Next weekend and the week after will make or break our winter- hopefully we cash in big time.  Good luck to us 

[csnavywx]

Agree. Hard to get a better large scale pattern than this for us.

[Lowershoresadness]

17 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Agree. Hard to get a better large scale pattern than this for us.

all the colors are in the right place!  Bring this one to us CSN

[csnavywx]

4 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

all the colors are in the right place!  Bring this one to us CSN

Normally we lose out in these CAD-type storms. This one looking different. Northern stream looks strong and suppressive and the subtropical jet is finally coming back from the dead.

[csnavywx]

Still want one more day of runs before I start barking. Time enough to let the SW cutoff and northern stream settle down.

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Still want one more day of runs before I start barking. Time enough to let the SW cutoff and northern stream settle down.

This is what I told my Dad. Cautiously optimistic, but not completely in the fully sold category. 

[SnowtoRain]

12 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Still want one more day of runs before I start barking. Time enough to let the SW cutoff and northern stream settle down.

Yeah, if it is still looking good at the end of Weds I will get invested. Getting any substantial precipitation this past year has been tough.  

[csnavywx]

13 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is what I told my Dad. Cautiously optimistic, but not completely in the fully sold category. 

Getting sold on at least a very solid front-end thump. I had some concerns with the slowing trend in the southern stream. 6Z GFS finally flipping away from holding the cutoff back makes me think that failure mode is sliding off the table. It was an outlier ofc, but if even the outlier is moving away from that scenario, it makes it less of a threat. The TPV has trended slow enough that the eastern lobe of that cAk high pressure will be solidly in place to prevent the incipient low from moving west of the mountains.

So the question is now how clean of a coastal transfer we get and how far north that occurs.

A phase between the cutoff and the trailing N/S wave would cause the WCB/warm nose to advance further north and perhaps cut into totals here. A partial phase or a simple kick probably still doesn't. But something to look out for on the latter part of the storm.

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Getting sold on at least a very solid front-end thump. I had some concerns with the slowing trend in the southern stream. 6Z GFS finally flipping away from holding the cutoff back makes me think that failure mode is sliding off the table. It was an outlier ofc, but if even the outlier is moving away from that scenario, it makes it less of a threat. The TPV has trended slow enough that the eastern lobe of that cAk high pressure will be solidly in place to prevent the incipient low from moving west of the mountains.

So the question is now how clean of a coastal transfer we get and how far north that occurs.

A phase between the cutoff and the trailing N/S wave would cause the WCB/warm nose to advance further north and perhaps cut into totals here. A partial phase or a simple kick probably still doesn't. But something to look out for on the latter part of the storm.

This area does mix in most of the big storms, so I guess its to be expected. 

[kcones88]

Is it looking more likely that we'll stay dry all of Saturday? 

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, kcones88 said:

Is it looking more likely that we'll stay dry all of Saturday? 

Yes.

[csnavywx]

The floor is rising. 18Z runs are no longer slowing down the southern stream and we have some buffer room if it decides to come more north. GFS is no longer the odd man out. I do expect the NBM means to peak right around now as some of the extreme tails get clipped (and there aren't that many duds left to fill in). So don't be surprised if that comes down a hair. Should be able to do a first guess map by tomorrow at this rate.

[Lowershoresadness]

55 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The floor is rising. 18Z runs are no longer slowing down the southern stream and we have some buffer room if it decides to come more north. GFS is no longer the odd man out. I do expect the NBM means to peak right around now as some of the extreme tails get clipped (and there aren't that many duds left to fill in). So don't be surprised if that comes down a hair. Should be able to do a first guess map by tomorrow at this rate.

haven't had time to pay attention.  are we at a yellow alert or red alert