Trent

Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

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Wrap around stuff for NWO is probably the last hope for a white Christmas in the area. Thinking maybe 0.5-1" at most, if we're lucky. Wind will be interesting Christmas Eve...

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I'm dreaming of a power outage for Christmas, just like the ones I used to know.

Santa's and Snowmen will be flying around. Just glad I'm not wasting time worrying about a trace or 3" of wet snow at this point. Looking forward to next week.

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Very turbulant Christmas Eve coming up for the area. I still think that the CLE record high of 65 will be in some jeopardy if we can get a little sun during the afternoon which is possible, although we may ultimately fall a bit short.

 

There will be the potential for a squall line of low topped convection to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon in SW Ohio and move through Cleveland around 7PM give or take. Models spit out a little bit of CAPE although the squall line would be driven by forcing with the cold front. There will be a deep layer of 50-60 knot winds just above the ground when the front moves through, and I think models may be underdoing surface temps by a few degrees ahead of the front, which would add a smidgen more instability. It won't be hard for convective showers/possibly storms to bring down wind gusts in excess of 60MPH. The SPC day 2 outlook had most of Ohio outlined in a "marginal risk", and I think an upgrade to the old school slight risk may be in order in following day 1 outlooks if a squall line looks to develop. The 3z RAP appears to show enough low level turning for perhaps some spin-up tornadoes through late afternoon if a squall line can develop in western Ohio.

 

I am impressed with the synoptic wind potential behind the front in western Ohio and also for areas within 20-30 miles or so of Lake Erie. Looking at soundings from the 0z GFS and NAM, both models show pretty good mixing to about 850mb where there will be 60-65 knot winds during the evening hours. In addition, strong cold air advection (sinking air) and good pressure rises (about 2mb an hour for a time during the evening) also support strong winds. I think the potential exists for several hours of gusts into the 50's behind the front with some of the highest gusts possibly pushing 65MPH for brief periods of time. I'd expect CLE to upgrade their current high wind watch to a warning, and issue either an advisory or perhaps warning for the rest of their CWA at some point.

 

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I think the synoptic winds behind the front have the potential to cause more issues for more people, although it would be "cool" to see severe thunderstorm warnings on Christmas Eve, so we'll see if the severe threat along the front can pan out too.

 

Next week, the GFS and Euro both suggest cold enough air for good LES for the first time in nearly a month with W to NW winds. There may also be some risk for synoptic snow Sunday or Monday due to a wave of low pressure riding to our south. With a strong ridge developing over western North America all the way into Alaska this weekend into next week with the polar vortex finally becoming entrenched over Canada, this cold shot may not be a mirage, but still time for things to change on the models.

 

I'll weenie out about all the wind first before worrying about the snow, lol

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The winds are underperforming by a good 10-15MPH, likely due to the low ending up several MB weaker and a good bit east of where it was modeled last night. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for Cuyahoga and CLE gusted to 54MPH with the line. I was in Solon and saw a whopping one flash of lightning and gusts probably close to 50 with the line. Behind the line, the peak gusts with the synoptic winds were generally 40-50MPH looking through METARs from this evening, but are already essentially subsiding below advisory criteria. The squall line was kind of cool but overall not as exciting as I was expecting, which is probably a good thing with it being Christmas Eve. Hopefully we can at least get some decorative flurries Christmas morning.

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If no snow falls the rest of the month, it's looking pretty bleak in the snowfall department all across northern Ohio. Toledo with just a trace (tied for least snowiest), Akron/Canton with just 0.5" (least snowiest on record), Mansfield just 0.2" (tied 2nd least snowiest), Youngstown 0.7" (2nd least snowiest), and Cleveland 0.9" (3rd least snowiest).

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Merry Christmas.

 

Halfway decent storm here last night. Very strong gusts, a few trees down in Lakewood and some power outages too.

 

If no more snow falls the rest of December, this will be the least snowiest December for anyone who is younger than their 80s.

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Hopefully everyone had a nice Christmas.

Didn't realize quite how bad this December has been historically.

It has been historically awful. That said, with a wide open lake in January we can make up plenty of ground. Wagons of snow as they say :).

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Hey NEOH, what's your Dec snowfall so far? I've only got .5" Want to make sure I didn't miss anything lol.

 

We are about the same... give or take .1 :). A disappointing December to say the least. Can't remember a worse December... although the great November we had has probably made things feels worse.

 

The good news is that there are storm chances on the horizon... although you won't find any optimism in the storm thread for us folks on OH. Despite what the models currently show. Any way, something to keep us interested in this lack luster winter.

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I was hoping I missed something lol. It has been very disappointing. Looks like there is a chance of light snow tomorrow night, but chances are we will end Dec rather snowless. Hopefully the weekend can bring something.

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CLE actually lucked out with their 0.9" this month. I only mustered 0.3" this month.

CLE is still running a surplus this year and will for the next week. All in all, a record snowy November was evened out by a record snowless December. Had November and December flip flopped, we'd be cheering at the great start to winter. If mid January comes around and we're still waiting for something to pop, then I'll complain.

The lake is definitely more primed than its been in quite a few Januaries for a nice lake effect event. We just need the right cold snap to get some good snows. We are fortunate we don't necessarily have to be concerned with a perfect storm track.

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It looks like some lake effect will finally occur here over the next couple of days. It may affect Cleveland's currently 3rd least snowy December depending on where any banding sets up.

 

A weak shortwave will move through northern Ohio tomorrow morning, with some increase in mid-level moisture. Instability will be pretty marginal, with lake to 850mb temp differentials tomorrow of 15-17C (increasing towards evening) and equilibrium levels of 6-7k feet, however, forecast soundings do show moisture below the EL so I do think there should be just enough moisture and instability for light snow showers tomorrow. With a short fetch with NW winds and such marginal conditions I don't expect more than an inch through tomorrow afternoon, but it will be nice to see a few flakes around (I saw a couple of snow grains yesterday, but that's about it)

 

For tomorrow night conditions get more interesting, and a band could setup and produce plowable amounts of snow for some of us. Mid-level temps will cool several degrees with lake to 850mb temp differentials of around -20C tomorrow night into early Wednesday. The NAM shows equilibrium levels rising to around 7k feet or a bit better tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, with good moisture to about 6k feet. The NAM in BUFKIT gives 300-500 J/KB of lake induced CAPE for CLE, which is moderate. The winds will be well aligned from the WNW tomorrow night into Wednesday morning before going more SW by noon Wednesday.

 

The lake effect parameters support moderate snow rates, with a good portion of lake induced CAPE on the BUFKIT forecast soundings lying in the dendrite growth zone, which may promote the more common fluffy LES ratios we're used to. Surface high pressure will be building in from the SW with colder air temps inland which tends to support convergence near the lakeshore, and the NAM does appear to show a lake aggrigate trough downwind of both lakes MI and Erie which may also help support convergence along the central lakeshore tomorrow night.

 

Given the potential for moderate snow under any banding tomorrow night with good ratios, and what appears to be some potential for a band to set up for several hours from northern Lorain County east through a good chunk of Cuyahoga and into Geauga, I could see a 2-4" or if a persistent band sets up possibly up to 5" snow event. This is way more than any outlets are mentioning at this time, but I believe the parameters support this potential, especially if a band can setup for several hours tomorrow night. If there's no band we'd probably see more of a 1-3" type scenario play out. The 12z NMM and ARW both did produce over a quarter inch of QPF across parts of Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties through 7AM Wednesday with a band still continuing at the end of the run, so there is some model support for this idea.

 

"BUFKIT graph" for CLE using the NAM. The yellow line is equilibrium level, the white line is lake induced CAPE (CAPE values are on the left). The purple and yellow outlined area represent the snow growth zone. Note how good lift (the red contours) and moisture do get into the snow growth zone tomorrow night, which coincides with half decent lake induced CAPE and EL's:

 

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A more traditional skew-t off of BUFKIT for 6AM Wednesday:

 

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You can see the NAM trying to show some convergence near the lakeshore in the wind barbs, and also note the modest kink in the isobars near the southern lakeshore of Lake Erie and also just downwind of Lake MI at 7AM Wednesday:

 

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Good writeup OHweather...as always!

Hopefully we can tack on a few inches to close out Dec. I'd be happy with a small-medium event the way this month has gone.

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Temp dropped to 16 IMBY last night. Hopefully we'll see some snow develop later today. Pretty bold call from CLE this far out. While it is certainly a plausible scenario, the models have been a little off to say the least.

 

MODELS DID NOT AGREE ON THE SOLUTION OF THIS STORM TRACK ABOUT 36 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THEY APPEAR TO HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT AND HOPEFULLY WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DURATION. TRACK BRINGS SURFACE LOW TO THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT FORCING WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW SATURDAY MORNING CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO ALL RAIN. I CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS A MIX BUT WILL LEAVE IT AS A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN DURING THE DAY SO WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE.

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Drove through a half decent burst in Solon. The flakes were big and fluffy, if a band does set up later it won't be hard to rack up a few inches with that snow growth. Most of the BUF WRFs do show a band tonight although with mainly light snow. The NMM and ARW both show a quarter to half inch of liquid from NE Cuyahoga east through northern Geauga and the rest of the Snowbelt. So I feel the parameters and hi-res models support a 2-5" snow if a band forms. I feel like some kind of band will form tonight, although with only a small northerly component to the wind it might get stuck along the 322 corridor, which is just a bit too far north for most of us. I'm not expecting much here but our Chagrin and South Russel posters may be in the game, but it'll be close for them.

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Nice to see the snow flying again. On and off snowshowers here in Chagrin... huge flakes coming down.

 

This area will probably be a little too far south for any appreciable snows tonight... hopefully the winds can maintain a more NW'erly flow. The 322 corridor on north should do ok.

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There's been an uptick along 422 in the last hour and the "band" extends back to the western basin. I'd expect the band to shift north some and intensify as well as the diurnal snow showers inland weaken and convergence increases along the shoreline as the winds back a little bit later this evening.

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Looks like the band stayed just north of this area last night. Only .4" or so. Winds turn SW'erly today and another WNY special on the way. I wonder how long it will take to ice the western basin over. Not sure how long it will last with temps in the teens.

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Just a dusting to a few tenths around Cleveland proper. This was that super fluff snow, had any band got its act together, some decent accumulations would have happened quickly.

I guess we now wait until next week for the next shot of snow, this weekend looks like a rainstorm.

It's probably a hard stat to look up, but a ~40 day period between 1 inch snowfalls in Cleveland in the winter is extremely noteworthy.

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