Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

1.47" of much needed rain yesterday. We had a good run... I'm going to miss the San Diego like weather. 

[vpbob21]

Once again most of the rain skipped over this area.  That line formed about 10 miles south of here.  We ended up with less than a quarter inch.

[NEOH]

2 minutes ago, vpbob21 said:

Once again most of the rain skipped over this area.  That line formed about 10 miles south of here.  We ended up with less than a quarter inch.

It has been a rough stretch from the westside of CLE on west to your area for sure. Hopefully more rain chances to come. 

[dta1984]

Lake effect rain season is here, definitely looking forward to next month when we can start tracking some snow.   A lot of trees are already bare, we're not far away.  

[NEOH]

15 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Lake effect rain season is here, definitely looking forward to next month when we can start tracking some snow.   A lot of trees are already bare, we're not far away.  

This is a nice spread the wealth type lake effect event. Hopefully we can get a set-up like this when its cold enough for snow. 

[OHweather]

At this point, I am definitely "in" on accumulating snow somewhere across the snowbelt to start next week. It is short lived, but there will be a nice pattern amplification this weekend into the beginning of next week. That will send a chunk of the PV currently up over the arctic circle south into the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday:

While details are of course going back and forth on the latest deterministic model runs as they will at this range, the ensemble mean SLP, 850mb temperature, and QPF loop is a pretty good look for lake effect:

There may be some wet snow with that little wave of low pressure on Sunday depending on where it tracks...however, the lake effect ramps up behind it Sunday night into Monday, and probably lingers into Tuesday before ridging and warm air advection really start kicking in. Ensemble mean 850mb temps are down around -9C on Monday, with the ensemble mean depicting nice cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes and suggesting a more west to northwest wind direction. 500mb temperatures are progged to bottom out between -35 and -40C over a lake that is currently about 12C, which suggests very strong and deep instability is in play, potentially enough for thunder and lightning. 

We'll need to see how the specifics evolve as it gets closer, but the ingredients are there for a (somewhat brief) period of intense lake effect centered around Monday of next week, and the airmass should be cold enough for accumulating snow if we're able to get any sort of organized activity...which seems likely. 

[NEOH]

Seems like the models are shifting to a more NW wind direction. Still a long way out but some of the clown maps are interesting... CMC with a 2' bullseye over downtown. 

 

[OHweather]

Yeah, this is looking quite interesting still. There are still some disagreements on the synoptic setup, the GFS is a bit more progressive and would maybe limit the high-end potential, though the Euro and Canadian are more amplified and bring the core of the 500mb cold pool over or near Lake Erie Monday into Monday night...which could allow for a very fun event. 

It seems like lake enhanced/effect precip ramps up Sunday evening as we get into cold advection behind the departing low pressure. The flow will be northerly at this point, with some sort of Lake Huron enhanced band likely taking shape west of Cleveland initially. There could also be some disorganized showers/upslope into the higher terrain of the snowbelt. Instability isn't anything too extreme at first and the deeper cold air doesn't arrive until overnight, so accumulations may be marginal through Sunday evening. Activity should get more intense and accumulate more efficiently, even close to the lake, overnight into Monday morning. 

There's good agreement that the broad cyclonic flow will persist but gradually back to a more westerly direction Monday through Tuesday. It will be northwest on Monday, more west-northwest Monday night, and probably more west or even west-southwest on Tuesday. This will likely pivot any Lake Huron band east across the Cleveland metro and secondary snowbelt during the day Monday and into the primary snowbelt by Monday night, with perhaps a W-E band flaring up Monday night into Tuesday east of Cleveland while the Lake Huron band pivots east across Ashtabula County and Northwest PA. The global models don't have the resolution to resolve such features, but they seem to be hinting at some strong shoreline convergence or perhaps a mesolow of sorts evolving near or just offshore of Cleveland on Monday, which could be intriguing. 

Where the uncertainty lies is in mesoscale details, such as where upstream connections set-up, how our shoreline convergence behaves, and if a mesolow forms on Lake Erie. That will heavily dictate how organized any banding is and where it develops. With the flow slowly shifting from NNW to W or even WSW through the event, it has the potential to really spread the wealth. The potential exists for extreme instability, with fairly good synoptic moisture and support, especially if the trough is on the deeper side like the Canadian or Euro, which could allow for very impressive snow rates and double digit totals...the GFS would be ok, but it's not quite as good. Temperatures will be somewhat marginal, but by overnight Sunday night and through Tuesday morning should be cold enough that organized bands will be intense and able to accumulate. The higher terrain inland will accumulate more readily, but under good bands it should accumulate close to the lake. 

Should be a fun event to track! I'll actually be down in Athens Friday and Saturday so won't be forecasting this in an official capacity, but I'll be back in town before the event starts and may actually get some snow at my house! 

[Frog Town]

Outside of the lake affect-NW Ohioian here-do you think the more southerly track of the AI models has any merit with regards to the synoptic event.  They've done pretty well this Summer and Fall.