Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

1.47" of much needed rain yesterday. We had a good run... I'm going to miss the San Diego like weather. 

[vpbob21]

Once again most of the rain skipped over this area.  That line formed about 10 miles south of here.  We ended up with less than a quarter inch.

[NEOH]

2 minutes ago, vpbob21 said:

Once again most of the rain skipped over this area.  That line formed about 10 miles south of here.  We ended up with less than a quarter inch.

It has been a rough stretch from the westside of CLE on west to your area for sure. Hopefully more rain chances to come. 

[dta1984]

Lake effect rain season is here, definitely looking forward to next month when we can start tracking some snow.   A lot of trees are already bare, we're not far away.  

[NEOH]

15 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Lake effect rain season is here, definitely looking forward to next month when we can start tracking some snow.   A lot of trees are already bare, we're not far away.  

This is a nice spread the wealth type lake effect event. Hopefully we can get a set-up like this when its cold enough for snow. 

[OHweather]

At this point, I am definitely "in" on accumulating snow somewhere across the snowbelt to start next week. It is short lived, but there will be a nice pattern amplification this weekend into the beginning of next week. That will send a chunk of the PV currently up over the arctic circle south into the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday:

While details are of course going back and forth on the latest deterministic model runs as they will at this range, the ensemble mean SLP, 850mb temperature, and QPF loop is a pretty good look for lake effect:

There may be some wet snow with that little wave of low pressure on Sunday depending on where it tracks...however, the lake effect ramps up behind it Sunday night into Monday, and probably lingers into Tuesday before ridging and warm air advection really start kicking in. Ensemble mean 850mb temps are down around -9C on Monday, with the ensemble mean depicting nice cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes and suggesting a more west to northwest wind direction. 500mb temperatures are progged to bottom out between -35 and -40C over a lake that is currently about 12C, which suggests very strong and deep instability is in play, potentially enough for thunder and lightning. 

We'll need to see how the specifics evolve as it gets closer, but the ingredients are there for a (somewhat brief) period of intense lake effect centered around Monday of next week, and the airmass should be cold enough for accumulating snow if we're able to get any sort of organized activity...which seems likely.