USGS models show a 50% decrease in Conus snowfall by the 2060s

[bobbutts]

What about the fringe regions (south, low elevation, etc) that have low but (relatively) consistent snowfall?  Wouldn't it stand to reason that there is some line where it used to snow and stopped, progressing northwards?  E.G. if it's not STL, is it ATL?  

[tacoman25]

What about the fringe regions (south, low elevation, etc) that have low but (relatively) consistent snowfall?  Wouldn't it stand to reason that there is some line where it used to snow and stopped, progressing northwards?  E.G. if it's not STL, is it ATL?  

 

Not sure about long term trends, but I know ATL got more than twice their normal snowfall this winter.

 

Dallas, OKC, and Little Rock have all also seen big snowfall winters recently.

[ORH_wxman]

The south has variable snowfall trends at least from the ones I plotted. RDU and OKC have downward snowfall trends since the middle 20th century, however, DFW and ATL have positive trends.

[michsnowfreak]

The 1950s were a horrible period for winter up here too, at least until 1956. The early 1950s had some extremely warm and snowless winters across a lot of the CONUS. The early 1930s also had some extraordinarily warm winters as well in the northeast.

 

Clearly they were pretty terrible in the lakes too. The 1930s-1950s coincided with a +AMO/+NAO decadal regime which hasn't happened since (except maybe the late 1990s)...when the NAO started turning negative in the mid 1950s, the AMO was also trending negative and when the NAO went positive in the mid 1970s, the AMO was deeply negative until it went positive in the mid 1990s...but then the NAO was starting to head back down, though remained mostly positive through about 2000.

 

There may be something to that +AMO/+NAO regime which is lousy for winter. Though it seemed the bad years in the lakes extended in the 1960s while in the northeast (esp New England), the 1960s were one of the most prolific snow periods on record.

***LONG POST ALERT***

 

It is amazing the nationwide snow-drought of the 1930s-50s. Yes, you will find needles in haystacks, but just as a whole...winters everywhere just sucked. Its easy to use the 1970s winters as a bar, but almost every place has accurate records for the 1930s-50s, and in almost any given place...winters as a whole are harsher now than then.

 

The 1960s certainly broke away from the shell, Detroit was just more or less in a snow-hole locally. There were some decent winters, but 3 winters certainly brought that average down (as you will see below). Winters were WAY colder in the '60s then the previous 3 decades for sure, and a quick look at the increased snowcover (despite decreased snowfall from the 1950s) at Detroit shows this.

 

I decided it would be interesting to do a quick narration on the most W-T-F winters of that timeframe. The frequency of pathetic winters then was just astounding.

 

Detroits normal snowfall right now is listed at 42.7", and normal 1"+ snowcover days at 48. Entering 1930, the snowfall average was near identical to right now, and though Im not sure of snowcover, Id wager a guess it was at least where it is now if not a bit higher.

 

Mind you...Im just showing the worst of the worst below. Many winters I didnt list would be a trainwreck still by todays standards.

From 1931-32 through 1968-69, a span of 38 winters, Detroit hit 40"+ snowfall just 12 times. This means that 26 of 38 winters had below normal snowfall.

1933-34: 42.6"

1938-39: 42.8"

1942-43: 44.4"

1949-50: 42.8"

1950-51: 42.2"

1951-52: 58.6"

1953-54: 40.0"

1955-56: 45.2"

1956-57: 45.6"

1959-60: 47.7"

1964-65: 49.2"

1966-67: 50.6"

 

*********************************

 

A narrative post on the winterless winters of the 1930s-60s at Detroit:

 

1931-32: Still stands as the 2^nd warmest winter on record (behind only 1881-82). Green grass and blooming dandelions reported in MI in January. Almost no winter until a 6.5” snowstorm on Feb 5^th, then another 7.5” snowstorm Mar 22^nd. These two storms helped the season total to 26.2”, not necessarily a tell-tale of how winterless the winter was. Only 11 days had 1”+ snowcover, the 2^nd barest winter on record.

 

1932-33: The season started with a 9” mid-November snowstorm, and ended with a late-March 6” snowstorm. This was a big contribution to the season total snowfall of 25.9”. In between, once again, actual winter saw very little winter. The ground was completely bare of snow from Dec 19^th til Feb 7^th, which mean this was the SECOND CONSECUTIVE JANUARY with NOT A SINGLE DAY of measurable snowcover!

 

1936-37: After 3 ok winters (nothing to write home about, but at certainly more Michigan-like winters), this one takes the cake. The 12.9” season total ranks as the least snowy winter on record, and just 10 days of 1”+ snowcover makes it the barest as well. In fact, outside of a 3.5” snowfall on Jan 22^nd that led to 8 consecutive snowcover days, there was nothing but a smattering of harmless dustings spanning from Oct through Apr (the 2 other snowcover days were 1”, and actually technically less than a full inch). The season snowfall was broken up as 3.9” in Fall, 6.6” in winter, and 2.3” in spring.

 

1937-38: At least there was a light cover of white for 48 days this winter, but even then…most of those days were 1” depths, with several 2” depths, and just one day of 3” snowdepth. Winters biggest storm was a paltry 2.4” fall in March, and it took many dustings and light fall to accumulate the season total of 22.6”.

 

1940-41: A snowy November (9.1”) and 12.8” of snow had fallen by the winter solstace have false hope for a good winter…but it proved, like many of the time, to once again become a failure. The seasons biggest fall was the 3.8” storm on Nov 30^th, and following the first week of December, the rest of the winter saw just a smattering of dustings to 1-2” falls. Season total snowfall was 26.8", and though the 33 days of snowcover wasnt astoundingly low, nearly 2 weeks of it had been in the books before the first week of December was over.

 

1941-42: A mild winter, with nothing really of note until the seasons biggest storm, 4.2”, caused some brief power outages on April 10^th. The winters snow depth never exceeded 3”, only 20 days had measurable snowcover (only 6 days through early Feb), and the seasons total fall of snow was 23.4”.

 

1943-44: After finally seeing a winter in ’42-43, immediate payback was seen. After an unusual 1” snowfall on Oct 19^th and over 3” in November, winter disappeared in Dec & Jan. January 1944 joined 1932 and 1933 in that NOT A SINGLE DAY had snowcover. This is unheard of today, and it happened 3 times in 12 years. On Feb 10^th, what would turn out to be the biggest snowstorm of the 1940s dropped 6.3” of snow, and brought a 2-week stretch of rare decent snowcover. Still, in the end, just 21 day had snowcover and a total fall of 22.8” this season. Whats interesting, however, is that despite another open winter, the peak snow depth of 7” was higher than at any point in 6 other winters this decade.

 

1948-49: The previous 4 winters all had below normal snowfall, but there were at least decent stretches of winter (snowcover, though not deep at all, was way above normal in 1944-45 and again in 1947-48). This year, there was almost no winter. Newspaper accounts after a January windstorm noted how green the grass remained all winter to that point. The biggest “storm” was 2.8” on Jan 26^th which kicked off two-weeks of snowcover, and winters only real visit this season. The seasons total fall of snow was just 13.7” (3^rd least snowy winter on record) and only 17 days had 1”+ snowcover.

 

1952-53: After a very snowy winter of ’51-52, a familiar trend of the time reared its ugly head. Get a decent winter…pay dearly next year. This winter, only 16.6” of snow fell total, and just 16 days had 1”+ snowcover. Whats more, 13 of those 16 days the snow depth was just 1”, with the other three days being 2”. This is the only winter on record without a peak snow depth of 3” or higher. Winters biggest fall was 3.2” on Jan 11^th (but it warmed to 40F immediately after, so obs snow depth on both the 11^th and 12^th was 1”). Also, after January 31^st, only trace snow depths were seen from Feb-Apr, the first and only time on record there was no measurable snowcover Feb 1^st or later.

 

1957-58: After some decent winters in the mid-50s, this winter was one of very light snowfall. The seasons biggest storm was a long duration 2.1” from late Feb 13^th to early Feb 15^th (the backend of a big east storm), and the largest 24-hour fall of the season was 1.7” (set on 3 different occasions). No other winter season on record has had such a low fall be the biggest of the season. The total fall of snow of 18.0” ranks as the 10^th least snowy winter on record. The 32 days of 1”+ snowcover were below normal, but not in the barren category of many of the above mentioned winters. Still, peak depth was just 3” following the mid-Feb “storm”.

 

1960-61: A winter to remember out east was one to forget here. The total fall of snow of 18.0” ties with ’57-58 for the 10^th least snowy winter. This year, winters biggest fall was just 3.0”…and came on April 16/17^th! Once again, this winters peak depth was just 3”, however a White Christmas, 35 days with 1”+ snowcover, and several very cold days gave this winter a bit more bite than many of the above listed ones.

 

1965-66: This winter is the 5^th least snowy on record with just 15.4” falling the entire season. The biggest fall was 3.0” on Jan 22^nd, and the season had 33 snowcover days. The last 3 weeks of January did feature a solid snowcover and very cold weather. Snow depth peaked at 4” following the Jan 22^nd storm.

 

1968-69: This winter would be the last of the futile ‘30s-‘60s…and would welcome in much, much wintrier times for the ‘70s. The seasons total fall of snow of just 17.1” ranks as the 8^th least snowy on record. Whats worse, in December, the several snowfalls we had were immediately washed away by rain. The wintriest period was the first 17 days of January, which had snowcover, highlighted by the January 6^th snowfall of 3.3” (biggest of season) which brought depth to 5”. A 2.3” snowfall on Feb 2^nd would be Feb’s only measurable precip (one of the driest winter months ever recorded in the Midwest).

[Msalgado]

It would be interesting to measure the change in temperature most snowfall occurs at per location in the US.  Places where the snow is now falling at closer to the freezing point than in previous decades would likely have seen an increase in the snow amount but may be about to fall off a cliff, so to speak.  

 

We should all know that it is more complex than warmer = less snow as the theory on building ice sheets over North America actually involves warmer winters. It makes sense to me that warming the winter up to a point will increase the amount of snow that falls.  The interesting point probably lies around the "fringe" areas.  Seems like a lot of cool research is available in this area!

[tamarack]

Definitely trending upward..... 

 

Here's one thing I noticed over the past 15 years. As I call it "Snow on Snow".

 

From my childhood and on into the 1990's, we rarely had snowfall of any significance fall on top of an existing snow-pack. Usually a storm would come and before the next notable storm hit, the previous snow-pack was lost. That all started to change after 1998, we started seeing storms hit while a 6+ inch snow-pack was still in place, sometimes weeks or a month old. This almost NEVER happened in the 1980's or 1990's. We were lucky to hold onto snow-pack for 10 days at a time before a rain soaking torch would take us right back to brown grass. This is anecdotal evidence, but snow-pack figures seem to be trending upward in many US locations, so it might be a pattern developing.... for now.

 

I grew up in NNJ, a place only slightly poorer for snow, and snow-on-snow occurred perhaps once every 3-4 winters and then just barely - snow on old crust.  Powder-on-powder was all but unknown.  It may have occurred on 3/19/56, though we got very little from the 3/16 storm as it passed too far east.  Other than that, I can remember only two times there when I had "wx consciousness" - about 1956 thru 1971.   It happened a couple times in 1961 during the 1/19-2/4 wintry blast, and again in 2/6-7/67.  This latter comes with an asterisk, as the end of the 3-4" first event was less than 18 hr from the beginning of the frigid 12-18" second storm.  (NYC got 2.7" and 12.5", respectively.)

 

Can't say how it's been since then, though the numbers support pow-pow from the two storms of Feb. 1994, and possibly again in Jan. 2011, and quite possibly no other time.

 

Edit:  That 467" at Hooker is an all-East record only in the non-MWN division, as the Rockpile measured 560" in 1968-69 and 499" eight years later.

[michsnowfreak]

It would be interesting to measure the change in temperature most snowfall occurs at per location in the US.  Places where the snow is now falling at closer to the freezing point than in previous decades would likely have seen an increase in the snow amount but may be about to fall off a cliff, so to speak.  

 

We should all know that it is more complex than warmer = less snow as the theory on building ice sheets over North America actually involves warmer winters. It makes sense to me that warming the winter up to a point will increase the amount of snow that falls.  The interesting point probably lies around the "fringe" areas.  Seems like a lot of cool research is available in this area!

I see no clear trend one way or another here in that regard. If I had to pick a temp threshold, id say most of our snow falls with temps in the 20s, but we certainly see our share of 30F+ snow and teens and even single digit snow.

 

One other startling trend locally when examining the data from yesteryear...is that the number of ice storms and glaze events was WAY higher in the 1930s-50s than it is today (with a peak in the 1940s, coincidentally coinciding with our lowest snow decade on record). Its not even close actually. So I dont know if something was going on well above the surface or what.

[michsnowfreak]

I grew up in NNJ, a place only slightly poorer for snow, and snow-on-snow occurred perhaps once every 3-4 winters and then just barely - snow on old crust.  Powder-on-powder was all but unknown.  It may have occurred on 3/19/56, though we got very little from the 3/16 storm as it passed too far east.  Other than that, I can remember only two times there when I had "wx consciousness" - about 1956 thru 1971.   It happened a couple times in 1961 during the 1/19-2/4 wintry blast, and again in 2/6-7/67.  This latter comes with an asterisk, as the end of the 3-4" first event was less than 18 hr from the beginning of the frigid 12-18" second storm.  (NYC got 2.7" and 12.5", respectively.)

 

Can't say how it's been since then, though the numbers support pow-pow from the two storms of Feb. 1994, and possibly again in Jan. 2011, and quite possibly no other time.

 

Edit:  That 467" at Hooker is an all-East record only in the non-MWN division, as the Rockpile measured 560" in 1968-69 and 499" eight years later.

In the 1990s, there would be some instances of snow on snow, especially times where you see a couple inch snowfall on top of a couple inch snowcover...and certainly snowbanks hanging around most of the time...I think Jonger was referring to a significant snowpack in place with a significant snowfall on top of it. That has most definitely increased.

[tamarack]

In the 1990s, there would be some instances of snow on snow, especially times where you see a couple inch snowfall on top of a couple inch snowcover...and certainly snowbanks hanging around most of the time...I think Jonger was referring to a significant snowpack in place with a significant snowfall on top of it. That has most definitely increased.

 

And for that the Feb 3-4, 1961 storm (24" atop 20"+) probably stands alone for my former NNJ area since perhaps the winter of 1947-48, maybe even longer.  Feb 1994 would've been close, but snow depth at nearby stations was only 10-12" when storm #2 arrived, not the 20-30" atop which the 1961 blizzard fell.  Canistear Reservior, about 20 miles NW of where I then lived, peaked at 52".  Apart from that event, the deepest snow I've seen in NJ was 41" in early 1948 at Oak Ridge (which reached 50" in 2/61), and after that 36" seems to be tops.

[michsnowfreak]

And for that the Feb 3-4, 1961 storm (24" atop 20"+) probably stands alone for my former NNJ area since perhaps the winter of 1947-48, maybe even longer.  Feb 1994 would've been close, but snow depth at nearby stations was only 10-12" when storm #2 arrived, not the 20-30" atop which the 1961 blizzard fell.  Canistear Reservior, about 20 miles NW of where I then lived, peaked at 52".  Apart from that event, the deepest snow I've seen in NJ was 41" in early 1948 at Oak Ridge (which reached 50" in 2/61), and after that 36" seems to be tops.

I cant even fathom what a winter like that would be like today, where we have such a blah winter while the east coast is getting slammed.

 

Its fun to read some of the newspaper accounts from the benign winters of the '40s and '50s...saying things like "5-inch snow cripples city" .

[Msalgado]

I see no clear trend one way or another here in that regard. If I had to pick a temp threshold, id say most of our snow falls with temps in the 20s, but we certainly see our share of 30F+ snow and teens and even single digit snow.

 

One other startling trend locally when examining the data from yesteryear...is that the number of ice storms and glaze events was WAY higher in the 1930s-50s than it is today (with a peak in the 1940s, coincidentally coinciding with our lowest snow decade on record). Its not even close actually. So I dont know if something was going on well above the surface or what.

 

What dataset are you looking at to discern a trend?

[michsnowfreak]

What dataset are you looking at to discern a trend?

There is no dataset to my knowledge, Im sure the only way to do that would be to look up all the individual snowfalls and their temps, which would take forever, especially in a climate like here where we see frequent snowfall. I suppose perhaps we could look up temps during 6"+ storms or set some other snow amount threshold. I just know from personal experience that temps are hardly an issue here, and I can recall no trend one way or another, except that snowfall itself is increasing. Its an interesting topic though, so what I will do is look up Detroits 6"+ snowstorms and the temps during them.

[Msalgado]

There is no dataset to my knowledge, Im sure the only way to do that would be to look up all the individual snowfalls and their temps, which would take forever, especially in a climate like here where we see frequent snowfall. I suppose perhaps we could look up temps during 6"+ storms or set some other snow amount threshold. I just know from personal experience that temps are hardly an issue here, and I can recall no trend one way or another, except that snowfall itself is increasing. Its an interesting topic though, so what I will do is look up Detroits 6"+ snowstorms and the temps during them.

 

Oh, its not about it being an issue.  If you warm air then it can hold more water, so it stands to reason that if snow predominately fell at (wild numbers here just being used to illustrate a point) at 20 degrees F and is now falling at 25 degrees F you could see increases in snow amount (SWE anyway - depth might respond differently).

[michsnowfreak]

Oh, its not about it being an issue.  If you warm air then it can hold more water, so it stands to reason that if snow predominately fell at (wild numbers here just being used to illustrate a point) at 20 degrees F and is now falling at 25 degrees F you could see increases in snow amount (SWE anyway - depth might respond differently).

Heres how I did the data...

 

I did 6"+ snowstorms since 1940.....the temperature at the beginning of the storm and the end of the storm, as well as the highest the temp got during the storm, and the lowest it got during the storm. In those instances where a storm began as rain (or ended as rain), I used the temp from first to last flake of snow only.

 

Obviously the results are varied, and the sample size small as this is an area of frequent snowfall and I limited it to only 6"+ storms...but the general results are quite surprising. In general, it seems that the bigger snowstorms not only have a tendency to be colder now than in previous decades, but also instances of changeover or mixing with rain at some point during the storm are less now as well.

 

Date - snowfall - storm begin temp - storm end temp - max temp during storm - min temp during storm

 

Mar 12, 2014 ------ 6.6” --- 30F --- 21F --- 30F --- 21F

Feb 4/5, 2014 ----- 8.0” --- 22F --- 25F --- 27F --- 19F

Jan 26/27, 2014 -- 6.2” ----- 9F --- 16F --- 27F ---- 9F

Jan 5/6, 2014 ---- 11.0” --- 28F ---- 5F --- 32F ---- 5F

D31-J2, 2013/14- 11.1” --- 16F --- 12F --- 17F --- 11F

Dec 14, 2013 ------ 7.7” --- 21F --- 19F --- 22F --- 19F

Feb 26-28, 2013 -- 7.1” --- 34F --- 34F --- 36F --- 33F

Dec 26/27, 2012 -- 6.2” --- 30F --- 31F --- 31F --- 27F

Feb 20/21, 2011 - 10.2” --- 30F --- 25F --- 30F --- 25F

Feb 1/2, 2011 ---- 10.3” --- 16F --- 18F --- 25F --- 15F

Dec 12, 2010 ------ 6.3” --- 34F --- 11F --- 34F --- 11F

Feb 21/22, 2010 -- 6.9” --- 36F --- 32F --- 36F --- 30F

Feb 9/10, 2010 ---- 8.6” --- 25F --- 26F --- 27F --- 24F

 

Apr 5/6, 2009 ----- 7.2” --- 36F --- 35F --- 36F --- 33F

Jan 9/10, 2009 ---- 7.0” --- 23F --- 21F --- 25F --- 21F

Dec 19, 2008 ------ 7.9” --- 25F --- 28F --- 28F --- 25F

Mar 21/22, 2008 -- 7.3” --- 30F --- 27F --- 30F --- 26F

Mar 4/5, 2008 ----- 7.5” --- 28F --- 25F --- 28F --- 23F

Dec 15/16, 2007 -- 9.0” --- 25F --- 26F --- 28F --- 23F

Feb 13/14, 2007 -- 8.5” --- 16F --- 16F --- 16F --- 10F

Dec 14/15, 2005 -- 6.2” --- 28F --- 34F --- 34F --- 28F

Dec 8/9, 2005 ----- 6.2” --- 27F --- 26F --- 28F --- 26F

Jan 22, 2005 ----- 12.2” --- 12F --- 16F --- 17F --- 10F

Jan 5/6, 2005 ----- 6.0” --- 32F --- 28F --- 32F --- 23F

Dec 22/23, 2004 -- 8.9” --- 19F --- 21F --- 22F --- 17F

Feb 22/23, 2003 -- 7.3” --- 34F --- 19F --- 34F --- 19F

Dec 24/25, 2002 -- 6.4” --- 30F --- 31F --- 31F --- 27F

Jan 30/31, 2002 -- 7.6” --- 30F --- 28F --- 30F --- 28F

Dec 11/12, 2000 -- 6.1” --- 28F --- 21F --- 30F --- 21F

 

Mar 5/6, 1999 ----- 8.3” --- 31F --- 23F --- 31F --- 21F

Jan 2/3, 1999 ---- 11.3” --- 19F --- 34F --- 34F --- 17F

Dec 6/7, 1994 ----- 7.6” --- 36F --- 33F --- 36F --- 30F

Feb 25/26, 1994 -- 6.0” --- 22F --- 13F --- 22F --- 13F

Feb 7/8, 1994 ----- 6.4” --- 15F --- 10F --- 15F ---- 6F

Jan 6/7, 1994 ---- 10.3” --- 15F --- 19F --- 26F --- 15F

Mar 10, 1993 ------ 7.5” --- 32F --- 26F --- 32F --- 26F

Mar 4, 1993 ------- 6.6” --- 34F --- 31F --- 34F --- 31F

Mar 21/22, 1992 -- 7.1” --- 31F --- 30F --- 31F --- 27F

Jan 14, 1992 ----- 11.1” --- 34F --- 19F --- 34F --- 19F

Feb 13/14, 1991 -- 6.8” --- 32F --- 23F --- 32F --- 23F

 

Feb 11/12, 1988 -- 8.2” --- 15F --- 14F --- 20F --- 14F

Dec 28, 1987 ------ 7.2” --- 33F --- 28F --- 33F --- 28F

Jan 9/10, 1987 ---- 8.1” --- 30F --- 31F --- 34F --- 29F

Feb 27/28, 1984 -- 6.9” --- 25F --- 23F --- 26F --- 22F

Mar 20/21, 1983 -- 7.3” --- 32F --- 16F --- 32F --- 16F

Apr 5/6, 1982 ----- 7.6” --- 26F --- 23F --- 26F --- 20F

Mar 4, 1982 ------- 6.1” --- 16F --- 24F --- 36F --- 16F

Feb 3, 1982 ------- 6.0” --- 25F --- 20F --- 28F --- 20F

Jan 30/31, 1982- 11.8” --- 30F --- 18F --- 34F --- 17F

Dec 21/22, 1981 - 7.6” --- 20F --- 33F --- 37F --- 20F

Feb 10/11, 1981 - 8.6” --- 25F --- 16F --- 42F --- 16F

 

Jan 13/14, 1979 -- 6.1” --- 23F --- 20F --- 32F --- 20F

Jan 25-27, 1978- 10.1” --- 31F --- 22F --- 36F --- 21F

Jan 1, 1978 ------- 7.0” --- 28F --- 25F --- 29F --- 25F

Dec 8/9, 1977 ---- 6.4” ----- 4F --- 27F --- 31F ---- 4F

Dec 5, 1977 ------- 6.4” --- 29F --- 27F --- 29F --- 27F

Mar 17/18, 1977 -- 8.3” --- 36F --- 31F --- 36F --- 31F

Jan 9/10, 1977 --- 6.6” ----- 9F --- 11F --- 16F ---- 8F

Mar 1, 1976 ------- 6.2” --- 34F --- 31F --- 34F --- 31F

Jan 13, 1976 ------ 6.0” --- 30F --- 32F --- 32F --- 30F

Dec 25/26, 1975 -- 6.5” --- 30F --- 34F --- 34F --- 27F

Dec 1/2, 1974 --- 19.3” --- 32F --- 34F --- 34F --- 30F

Feb 5/6, 1974 ----- 6.2” --- 17F --- 19F --- 19F --- 16F

Dec 19/20, 1973- 11.2” --- 21F --- 28F --- 28F --- 21F

Mar 16/17, 1973 -- 9.9” --- 35F --- 27F --- 35F --- 27F

 

Mar 22/23, 1968 -- 7.7” --- 33F --- 27F --- 33F --- 23F

Jan 13/14, 1968 -- 7.6” --- 20F --- 32F --- 34F --- 20F

Nov 2/3, 1966 ---- 6.0” --- 37F --- 32F --- 37F --- 27F

Feb 24/25, 1965- 11.0” --- 23F --- 19F --- 25F --- 19F

Feb 25/26, 1960 - 6.0” --- 20F --- 25F --- 27F --- 20F

 

Jan 9/10, 1957 --- 9.0” --- 28F --- 20F --- 28F --- 20F

F28/M1, 1954 ---- 6.6” --- 35F --- 29F --- 35F --- 28F

Dec 25, 1951 ----- 6.2” --- 20F --- 26F --- 26F --- 18F

Dec 17/18, 1951 - 6.8” --- 14F --- 23F --- 28F --- 14F

Nov 25/26, 1950 - 6.3” --- 11F --- 18F --- 39F --- 11F

 

Feb 10/11, 1944 - 6.3” --- 21F --- 14F --- 23F --- 14F

[ORH_wxman]

This is the plotted average of the 4 temps listed above...from 1944 (left) to 2014 (right)...looks like no noticeable trend.

 

[michsnowfreak]

This is the plotted average of the 4 temps listed above...from 1944 (left) to 2014 (right)...looks like no noticeable trend.

Thanks! I have so many different data sets I need to get into plotting

Obviously, the results were very variable, but it did seem like there was a higher tendency in years past to have rain mix in at some point, as well as have a rapid temp spike mid-storm while the storm begins and ends cold (ie L passing overhead?). As a general rule though, it seems like 20s would be the average temps during big snowstorms here, though as you can see from above, we have had a few storms where the temp never fell below 33F, and several where the temp never got out of the teens.

One slight trend I noticed...is that it would appear that nowadays, a slight trend would lean towards temps to fall during a storm, rather than rise....whereas pre-1980 temps were more likely to rise during a storm.

........avg start temp....end temp....max temp....min temp.....sample size

2010s………25.5F……..21.1F………28.8F……..19.1F………13 storms

2000s………26.4F……..25.1F………28.7F……..22.5F………16 storms

1990s………27.4F……..23.7F………29.7F……..20.7F………11 storms

1980s………25.2F……..22.4F………31.6F……..19.8F………11 storms

1970s………25.6F……..26.3F………30.4F……..22.7F………14 storms

1960s………26.6F……..27.0F………31.2F……..21.8F……….5 storms

1950s………21.6F……..23.2F………31.2F……..18.2F……….5 storms

Note that through the 1970s, the temp at the end of the storm averaged higher than at the beginning of the storm...and since then, the opposite has been true.

Sample size is smaller in the 1950s and 1960s due to less big storms, and I thought about doing top 10 storms per decade, but then the snowfall amounts dont match up (ie the 10th biggest storm of the 1950s is 5.3", while the 10th biggest of the 2000s is 7.2" with many additional storms falling between 5.3 and 7.1"). I figured set a snowfall amount threshold was a better starting point.