2013 Florida wet season

[icebreaker5221]

Now that it's May 1, I suppose it's time to start the wet season thread.  Various definitions of the start of the wet season exist, including 3 consecutive days where the dewpoint reaches 75, 3 consecutive days where the dewpoint remains above 75, as well as a number of criteria based upon consecutive days days of measurable rainfall.  The official NWS definition is surprisingly not that precise: "The rainy season start date is determined as the date when showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage and intensity over much of the south Florida peninsula and continue to develop on a daily basis thereafter, only interrupted by short episodes of dry weather lasting no more than a few days."

 

Reguardless, it typically starts in May, so I'll start one now

 

Looks like we'll be starting things off with a bang!

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

.UPDATE...
MASSIVE CLOUD FIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GOFMEX ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROTATING BENEATH CUT-OFF LOW WHICH
IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF STATES. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PRODUCING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING WITH NEARLY 800
STRIKES IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES. THE CONVECTIVE FIELD IS MOVING
EAST BUT THE QUESTION IS IF IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER BEFORE REACHING
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND HOW MUCH EFFECT THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD
WILL HAVE ON DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE MAINLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER, IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
HEATING WILL BE HELD OFF ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFTS
TO OCCUR. THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GULF COAST BUT WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MAINLAND AS SOME HEATING TAKES PLACE WITH MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A STORM MOTION TO
THE EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. ALL OF THIS SAID, CURRENT THINKING IS
TO ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXTEND HIGHER POPS BACK TO THE WEST COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
APPROACHING CONVECTION.

 

 

 

 

 

[flweathernerd]

That whole thing fell apart right as it got close to me.  Meh.

[hurricaneman]

This system looks like its trying to become a subtropical system, but I think it will fail in doing so ,but I do expect anywhere from 2 to 5 inches of rain anywhere on the pennisula

[metalicwx366]

That **** looks interesting on radar.

[icebreaker5221]

That **** looks interesting on radar.

 

 

 

It does look interesting, but it's just an MCV.  Had this been 2-3 months from now, with a little more time over water, it could have very well become a TC. 

[Ground Scouring]

There will be fairly significant turning between 950-850 mb early this afternoon over the Palm Beach metro area. With numerous storms occurring this morning and vertical velocities and relative vorticity increasing this afternoon as the surface low deepens, sea-breeze and outflow boundaries may well allow for a few brief tornadoes along the southeast coast of FL. Forecast soundings from the RAP show maximized 0-1-km EHI and helicity in the West Palm Beach area between 18Z-00Z today, where I think the localized tornado threat will be enhanced. Furthermore, with localized ascent along the stalled frontal boundary in the Palm Beaches, and a steady low-level moisture supply from the southwest raising instability (PBI’s dew point only dropped to 69°F, then rose within the hour to 71°F in the wake of thunderstorms), the threat may be rather persistent into early evening. This types of set-ups with otherwise-weak shear values are the classic cases in which low-level convergent boundaries very often produce a few "unexpected" weak tornadoes in S FL.

[icebreaker5221]

There will be fairly significant turning between 950-850 mb early this afternoon over the Palm Beach metro area. With numerous storms occurring this morning and vertical velocities and relative vorticity increasing this afternoon as the surface low deepens, sea-breeze and outflow boundaries may well allow for a few brief tornadoes along the southeast coast of FL. Forecast soundings from the RAP show maximized 0-1-km EHI and helicity in the West Palm Beach area between 18Z-00Z today, where I think the localized tornado threat will be enhanced. Furthermore, with localized ascent along the stalled frontal boundary in the Palm Beaches, and a steady low-level moisture supply from the southwest raising instability (PBI’s dew point only dropped to 69°F, then rose within the hour to 71°F in the wake of thunderstorms), the threat may be rather persistent into early evening. This types of set-ups with otherwise-weak shear values are the classic cases in which low-level convergent boundaries very often produce a few "unexpected" weak tornadoes in S FL.

 

 

I see some veering, but the wind magnitudes are so weak that it actually doesn't give you much of a hodograph.  That said, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a brief landspout / gustnado or two. 

 

 

When I checked the radar this morning, I thought I hadn't cleared my cache!  But no, just another MCS exactly 24 hrs after the last one...

 

[flweathernerd]

 

 

Jeff Gammons took this over Lake Okeechobee this morning.

[saltysenior]

 4.5 inches in 4hrs. in martin co. Fl........more comming

[jburns]

 4.5 inches in 4hrs. in martin co. Fl........more comming

 

That was close.  Remember, if it lasts more than 4 hours, see your doctor immediately.

[wi_fl_wx]

Really impressive rain totals the last few days. I've been enjoying the active weather but it will be nice to have a late season cold front in a few days as well.

[Ground Scouring]

There will be fairly significant turning between 950-850 mb early this afternoon over the Palm Beach metro area. With numerous storms occurring this morning and vertical velocities and relative vorticity increasing this afternoon as the surface low deepens, sea-breeze and outflow boundaries may well allow for a few brief tornadoes along the southeast coast of FL. Forecast soundings from the RAP show maximized 0-1-km EHI and helicity in the West Palm Beach area between 18Z-00Z today, where I think the localized tornado threat will be enhanced. Furthermore, with localized ascent along the stalled frontal boundary in the Palm Beaches, and a steady low-level moisture supply from the southwest raising instability (PBI’s dew point only dropped to 69°F, then rose within the hour to 71°F in the wake of thunderstorms), the threat may be rather persistent into early evening. This types of set-ups with otherwise-weak shear values are the classic cases in which low-level convergent boundaries very often produce a few "unexpected" weak tornadoes in S FL.

Wow, that was an accurate forecast--and for the right reason (sea-breeze convergence), based upon the write-up by storm chaser Jeff Gammons, who also confirmed a tornadic waterspout over Lake Okeechobee, which corroborates the following report of a tornado a few feet from my old home in northeast Boca Raton.

This tornado in Boca Raton hit the same block as that of my parents' home (I am now a freshman at USF St. Petersburg). My mother and father both heard a low moaning noise like a freight train and my neighbor actually has footage showing a garbage lid at my next-door neighbor flying 150 feet airborne. The Bike America store where I always took my bike to be repaired suffered damage. I just called up the man who repaired my bike and made sure everything was well. Unfortunately, a neighboring building, a dentist's office, was completely trashed with insulation and furniture thrown about and is now condemned. Fortunately, no one has been injured, but I would have loved to help my neighbors clean up. (I will be coming back to Boca for summer break this Saturday, as I have just finished my final exams here in St. Pete). We had several inches of rain here from the MCS, but parts of south FL, including Lake Okeechobee, Delray Beach, and Boca, have been swamped. Septic tanks near the Everglades in West Boca have backed up, with 2-3' of water flooding American Heritage School, and more than 8" of rain have fallen elsewhere across the city--easily the worst flooding since that of Hurricane Irene in 1999, with its 18" of rain in Delray and Boynton (and 10" in nearby Boca). Stay safe, South Floridians!

 

 

PALM BEACH COUNTY, Fla. - Heavy rain and wind have caused numerous problems in southern Palm Beach County.

American Heritage of Boca Delray will be closed May 3rd due to severe flooding, a school spokesperson said.

A possible tornado may have touched down in the 3000 block of North Federal Highway in Boca Raton.

Several YouReporters reported damage to a homeowner's roof in the area.

NewsChannel 5's Dan Corcoran discovered damage to the Bike America store at 3150 North Federal Highway and a neighboring dentist office.

"We saw things flying, we obviously got away from the windows... that was it, the building shook," said Cari Perillo who works at the dentist office.

Police put an 'unsafe structure' sign on the office due to the damage.

Workers at the bike store said it sounded like a freight train. Outside the windows they say it turned white and they heard a loud noise and then a sign was blown off a pole.

"Without warning ... something just swept over us. Just a white cloud of, you know, whatever it was. It looked like a tornado," says Bike of America employee Taylor Godsey.

Branches from a nearby tree were blown into the parking lot of a patio store.

No injuries were reported.

Read more: http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news/region_s_palm_beach_county/boca_raton/flooding-closes-roads-unconfirmed-tornado-reported-in-boca-raton#ixzz2SB4e2AlE

 

I see some veering, but the wind magnitudes are so weak that it actually doesn't give you much of a hodograph.  That said, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a brief landspout / gustnado or two. 

 

 

When I checked the radar this morning, I thought I hadn't cleared my cache!  But no, just another MCS exactly 24 hrs after the last one...

 

WUNIDS_map.gif

Well, I guess the following was a bit of a surprise:  (I know I was startled to actually see one of my "forecasts" verify, after all my years of busts in regard to TCs)

 

 

 

Jeff Gammons took this over Lake Okeechobee this morning.

[icebreaker5221]

Wow, that was an accurate forecast--and for the right reason (sea-breeze convergence), based upon the write-up by storm chaser Jeff Gammons, who also confirmed a tornadic waterspout over Lake Okeechobee, which corroborates the following report of a tornado a few feet from my old home in northeast Boca Raton.

This tornado in Boca Raton hit the same block as that of my parents' home (I am now a freshman at USF St. Petersburg). My mother and father both heard a low moaning noise like a freight train and my neighbor actually has footage showing a garbage lid at my next-door neighbor flying 150 feet airborne. The Bike America store where I always took my bike to be repaired suffered damage. I just called up the man who repaired my bike and made sure everything was well. Unfortunately, a neighboring building, a dentist's office, was completely trashed with insulation and furniture thrown about and is now condemned. Fortunately, no one has been injured, but I would have loved to help my neighbors clean up. (I will be coming back to Boca for summer break this Saturday, as I have just finished my final exams here in St. Pete). We had several inches of rain here from the MCS, but parts of south FL, including Lake Okeechobee, Delray Beach, and Boca, have been swamped. Septic tanks near the Everglades in West Boca have backed up, with 2-3' of water flooding American Heritage School, and more than 8" of rain have fallen elsewhere across the city--easily the worst flooding since that of Hurricane Irene in 1999, with its 18" of rain in Delray and Boynton (and 10" in nearby Boca). Stay safe, South Floridians!

 

 

PALM BEACH COUNTY, Fla. - Heavy rain and wind have caused numerous problems in southern Palm Beach County.

American Heritage of Boca Delray will be closed May 3rd due to severe flooding, a school spokesperson said.

A possible tornado may have touched down in the 3000 block of North Federal Highway in Boca Raton.

Several YouReporters reported damage to a homeowner's roof in the area.

NewsChannel 5's Dan Corcoran discovered damage to the Bike America store at 3150 North Federal Highway and a neighboring dentist office.

"We saw things flying, we obviously got away from the windows... that was it, the building shook," said Cari Perillo who works at the dentist office.

Police put an 'unsafe structure' sign on the office due to the damage.

Workers at the bike store said it sounded like a freight train. Outside the windows they say it turned white and they heard a loud noise and then a sign was blown off a pole.

"Without warning ... something just swept over us. Just a white cloud of, you know, whatever it was. It looked like a tornado," says Bike of America employee Taylor Godsey.

Branches from a nearby tree were blown into the parking lot of a patio store.

No injuries were reported.

Read more: http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news/region_s_palm_beach_county/boca_raton/flooding-closes-roads-unconfirmed-tornado-reported-in-boca-raton#ixzz2SB4e2AlE

 

Well, I guess the following was a bit of a surprise:  (I know I was startled to actually see one of my "forecasts" verify, after all my years of busts in regard to TCs)

 

 

Wow, didn't realize it got that bad there.  I definitely remember seeing a slight hook on that cell near Boca wondering if the NWS was going to go TOR warning, but they only went SVR. 

 

Did Jeff or anyone else relay it to NWS?  I only see "power lines down" on a storm report for Boca, no tornado reports or damage to structures, which it sounds like there were... although sometimes they're a little slow.

[metalicwx366]

There will be fairly significant turning between 950-850 mb early this afternoon over the Palm Beach metro area. With numerous storms occurring this morning and vertical velocities and relative vorticity increasing this afternoon as the surface low deepens, sea-breeze and outflow boundaries may well allow for a few brief tornadoes along the southeast coast of FL. Forecast soundings from the RAP show maximized 0-1-km EHI and helicity in the West Palm Beach area between 18Z-00Z today, where I think the localized tornado threat will be enhanced. Furthermore, with localized ascent along the stalled frontal boundary in the Palm Beaches, and a steady low-level moisture supply from the southwest raising instability (PBI’s dew point only dropped to 69°F, then rose within the hour to 71°F in the wake of thunderstorms), the threat may be rather persistent into early evening. This types of set-ups with otherwise-weak shear values are the classic cases in which low-level convergent boundaries very often produce a few "unexpected" weak tornadoes in S FL.

Wow nice call bro. You said this even when SPC had no threat of severe weather anywhere. Congrats!

[Ground Scouring]

Wow, didn't realize it got that bad there. I definitely remember seeing a slight hook on that cell near Boca wondering if the NWS was going to go TOR warning, but they only went SVR.

Did Jeff or anyone else relay it to NWS? I only see "power lines down" on a storm report for Boca, no tornado reports or damage to structures, which it sounds like there were... although sometimes they're a little slow.

This site, updated a little later than the issuance of the SPC report, says a tornado was confirmed by the NWS:

PALM BEACH COUNTY, Fla. - UPDATE: A team from the National Weather Service confirms that a tornado touched down Thursday afternoon in the 3000 block of North Federal Highway in Boca Raton.

Read more: http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news/region_s_palm_beach_county/boca_raton/flooding-closes-roads-unconfirmed-tornado-reported-in-boca-raton#ixzz2SBhflAnq

Further corroboration:

UPDATE: 8:46pm — The National Weather Service now confirms to CBS affiliate WPEC that a tornado touched down near the 3000 block of North Federal Highway in Boca Raton this afternoon. It was likey an F0.

http://bocanewsnow.com/2013/05/02/its-bad-boca-raton-delray-beach-flooding/

More data:

A tornado touched down in a Boca Raton neighborhood Thursday, damaging at least half a dozen homes, the National Weather Service said.

The EF-0 tornado – the least intense type of twister – had estimated 70 mph winds, according to the National Weather Service.

There were no reported injuries after the tornado hit homes along Northeast 28th Terrace near Florida Atlantic University, although backyard furniture was picked up and dropped across the street, the NWS said.

http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/Weather-Forecast-Strong-to-Severe-Storms-Expected-Thursday-in-South-Florida-205769131.html

Edit: Now it's "officially" official...

000

NWUS52 KMFL 030115

LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

915 PM EDT THU MAY 02 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0125 PM TORNADO 2 NE BOCA RATON 26.38N 80.08W

05/02/2013 PALM BEACH FL NWS STORM SURVEY

SURVEY INDICATED AN EF0 TORNADO IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS

OF BOCA RATON FROM NEAR NORTH DIXIE HIGHWAY AND NE 28 ST

TO NEAR FEDERAL HIGHWAY AND NE 32 ST. MAX WINDS ESTIMATED

AROUND 70 MPH WITH A PATH LENGTH OF 0.4 MILES AND WIDTH

OF 50 YARDS. DAMAGE CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF DOWNED TREES,

FENCES AND POWER LINES, WITH A PIECE OF A METAL-COVERED

FOAM ROOF BLOWN THROUGH A HOUSE WINDOW AND A DAMAGED

STORE SIGN.

&&

$$

MOLLEDA

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=public

[icebreaker5221]

There's a chance of some strong storms this afternoon in S. FL, especially along locally-enhacnced regions of lift and helicity if any sea breeze storms collide with the cold front.  While the surface is hot and humid, mid-level warming will limit CAPE and the best shear is along and behind the front. 

 

After that, we should be looking at several days with dewpoints in the low 60s and even upper 50s!  That's quite anomalously dry for May, and probably the last time we'll experience it till Oct. 

[wi_fl_wx]

Forgot to mention this last week, but on May 9, the low temperature of 62 at Miami International was the coldest May temperature in Miami since the low fell to 61 on May 8, 2007.

 

Last night the temperature held at 72. Might get a <70 tonight which is very unusual after May 15. Otherwise, Miami is probably stuck above 70 until October.

[jburns]

Forgot to mention this last week, but on May 9, the low temperature of 62 at Miami International was the coldest May temperature in Miami since the low fell to 61 on May 8, 2007.

 

Last night the temperature held at 72. Might get a <70 tonight which is very unusual after May 15. Otherwise, Miami is probably stuck above 70 until October.

 

If I didn't have to learn a whole new language I might move there.    My wife loves hot weather.  Last year on the way to the beach it was 94º.  I, of course, had the air conditioner on.  She had her heated seat on high the whole way.  It's amazing we have stayed married all these years.  Then again, I've always loved a woman with a hot butt.  

[wi_fl_wx]

If I didn't have to learn a whole new language I might move there.    My wife loves hot weather.  Last year on the way to the beach it was 94º.  I, of course, had the air conditioner on.  She had her heated seat on high the whole way.  It's amazing we have stayed married all these years.  Then again, I've always loved a woman with a hot butt.  

 

We like to say that the best part of Miami is how close it is to the United States.

[wi_fl_wx]

Rainy night in Miami last night: widespread 2-4" with localized 5-8" totals near the Miami WFO.

[icebreaker5221]

Rainy night in Miami last night: widespread 2-4" with localized 5-8" totals near the Miami WFO.

 

 

Yeah, a lot of street flooding.  Pretty impressive lightning too from 10pm - midnight. 

[icebreaker5221]

At least the last 3-4 runs of the HRRR have shown convection currently over Broward and Palm Beach counties suddenly organizing and dropping south over Dade county the next few hours.  Not sure I actually see this happening, but wouldn't be surprised by a general increase in coverage of the convection. 

[wi_fl_wx]

Looks like the official Miami wet season will start May 29 or so. Last round of consistently < 70 dew points this weekend.

[jlauderdal]

Late start although we have had good precip the last month

Sent from my MB886 using Tapatalk 2

[icebreaker5221]

Currently at KMIA:

T: 86, Td: 79, heat index: 100.

 

Can the Td hit 80?

[CandymanColumbusGA]

We had some impressive rain coming down the Turnpike. The beach, Miami beach, was mostly dry until a shower south of us was blown our way. It was crazy to see the wind just blow the rain a mile or so up the beach as it was sunny over us. Lol. I love Florida weather and miss it! Lol

[icebreaker5221]

We had some impressive rain coming down the Turnpike. The beach, Miami beach, was mostly dry until a shower south of us was blown our way. It was crazy to see the wind just blow the rain a mile or so up the beach as it was sunny over us. Lol. I love Florida weather and miss it! Lol

 

South Beach has been mostly dry all day.  North Beach, on the other hand, has been getting absolutely hammered.

 

They've undoubtedly picked up another inch or so since the last report too!

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL456 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013FLC011-086-072230-/O.CON.KMFL.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130607T2230Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/BROWARD FL-MIAMI-DADE FL-456 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT FOREXTREME NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTIES...AT 448 PM EDT...SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MEASURED A TOTAL OF9.44 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR NORTH MIAMI BEACH. NUMEROUS ROADS INCOASTAL BROWARD AND EXTREME NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES ARE ALSOFLOODED.LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PORTEVERGLADES...WILTON MANORS...HOLLYWOOD...HALLANDALE...FORTLAUDERDALE...DANIA BEACH AND AVENTURAPRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNEDAREA.EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALLCREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSESAS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

Oh, I know!!! The sky to our north has been dark all day. We've lucked out in missing out on all the rain so far. Hopefully Mother Nature keeps it away as we celebrate my buddy's 31st birthday! South Beach is going to be fun! Hahaha.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

I can't edit my last post, but all 4 of us are meteorologists. That makes it even funnier! Hahah

[icebreaker5221]

I can't edit my last post, but all 4 of us are meteorologists. That makes it even funnier! Hahah

 

Have fun!  South Beach is a blast. 

 

BTW up to 10.22" in the gauge at North Beach!