Mallow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 http://www.kptv.com/slideshow/weather/26132571/detail.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 1945AUMSVILLE MARION OR448512287EAST AND WEST BOUND LANES COVERED WITH DEBRIS NEAR TOWN OF SHAW. MANY AUTO ACCIDENTS BETWEEN MILE POSTS 42 AND 45 DUE TO HAIL ON ROADS. (PQR)1959AUMSVILLE MARION OR448512287EMERGENCY PERSONNEL OBSERVED TORNADO. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. REPORTS OF PEOPLE TRAPPED. (PQR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Given the damage pictures and descriptions, this will most likely be classified an EF2. Pretty darn impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Given the damage pictures and descriptions, this will most likely be classified an EF2. Pretty darn impressive. Probably a high end EF2 based on the pics. Doubt there was any instability too based on the METAR (manual station) didn't even have a CB in the obs so doubt there was any LTG with it. It's amazing to see the "dynamically driven" tornadoes occur when there is no instability. KSLE 141756Z 18014G19KT 10SM -RA SCT024 BKN033 BKN046 08/06 A2972 RMK AO2 RAE11B38 SLP066 P0001 60010 T00830061 10083 20067 51033 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 EDIT: Ya, that was definitely not a picture of the tornado. I figured it might have been someone trolling, and that has been confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well I better be cautious this winter and spring when parameters look ripe for tornadoes with everything but CAPE. An amazing occurrence and one for the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN WA/WRN OREGON CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 142119Z - 142315Z SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. STRONG WIND FIELD SUPPORTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED TORNADO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS W CENTRAL AND NWRN OREGON AND INTO ADJACENT WRN WA...S OF AN UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE INVOF VANCOUVER ISLAND. COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS YIELDING STEEP LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WHICH -- DESPITE VERY LITTLE CAPE -- WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED/MAINLY WEAK CONVECTION. THAT BEING SAID...A FEW BRIEFLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS REMAIN POSSIBLE...AIDED BY STRONG/VEERING FLOW FIELD WITH HEIGHT OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION. THEREFORE...A VERY LOW PROBABILITY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..GOSS.. 12/14/2010 ATTN...WFO...SEW...PQR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN WA/WRN OREGON CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 142119Z - 142315Z SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. STRONG WIND FIELD SUPPORTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED TORNADO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS W CENTRAL AND NWRN OREGON AND INTO ADJACENT WRN WA...S OF AN UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE INVOF VANCOUVER ISLAND. COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS YIELDING STEEP LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WHICH -- DESPITE VERY LITTLE CAPE -- WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED/MAINLY WEAK CONVECTION. THAT BEING SAID...A FEW BRIEFLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS REMAIN POSSIBLE...AIDED BY STRONG/VEERING FLOW FIELD WITH HEIGHT OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION. THEREFORE...A VERY LOW PROBABILITY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..GOSS.. 12/14/2010 ATTN...WFO...SEW...PQR... I didn't realize I worked for the SPC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Could this be an EF3 Tornado? vs a tornado from 2007 in Pottersvile, MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 That's crazy.... who knew that hilly/mountainous areas in Oregon could see tornadoes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 That's crazy.... who knew that hilly/mountainous areas in Oregon could see tornadoes? 1972 Portland–Vancouver tornado Yet this was April, it was still very rare, F3 Tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 That's crazy.... who knew that hilly/mountainous areas in Oregon could see tornadoes? I did! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Portland%E2%80%93Vancouver_tornado http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/paststorms/tornado.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 1972 Portland–Vancouver tornado Yet this was April, it was still very rare, F3 Tornado I did! http://en.wikipedia....ncouver_tornado http://www.wrh.noaa....rms/tornado.php Interesting... I guess the fact that it's December... and Oregon is so far north... it just boggles my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Interesting... I guess the fact that it's December... and Oregon is so far north... it just boggles my mind. The temperature was certainly much colder than one usually sees with tornados, especially one that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Could this be an EF3 Tornado? vs a tornado from 2007 in Pottersvile, MI I don't think so....maybe but as someone who does unofficial preliminary evaluations for NWS based on my experience I would say EF2. The Potersville, Michigan pic has a better type of construction/brick, and was a multi-level structure. I could be wrong on the rating and not seeing the damage in person makes it harder to judge, but I would say winds were in the 120-130 range. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The temperature was certainly much colder than one usually sees with tornados, especially one that strong. Yes it was. I think it was about the same temperature as the January tornadoes in Illinois and Wisconsin this year. With the mountains I bet you get localized differential heating zones and enhanced helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I don't think so....maybe but as someone who does unofficial preliminary evaluations for NWS based on my experience I would say EF2. The Potersville, Michigan pic has a better type of construction/brick, and was a multi-level structure. I could be wrong on the rating and not seeing the damage in person makes it harder to judge, but I would say winds were in the 120-130 range. I could be wrong. Reviewing I think my guess would be close. Listed below is a "quick evaluation" guide. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Very shocking to say the least. Just a rough look at the videos/pictures I'd go EF-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 My first encounter with a tornado (ultimately an EF2) occurred in the SFO Bay Area in January 1951. With a mPk airmass, cold air aloft and a strong Vortmax in the flow one can get some decent rotation in low topped convection. Should be noted that most tornado occurrences in coastal CA and coastal SoCA occur in Winter and early Spring. Desert tornadoes occur in Summer and Winter last January saw one near Blythe which entered AZ. Cold air funnels occur on occasion around PHX in Winter and Spring though this years big event was a classic post monsoonal transition pattern. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well I better be cautious this winter and spring when parameters look ripe for tornadoes with everything but CAPE. An amazing occurrence and one for the record books. There was some weak instability. Note the location of the tornado was near the "nose" of the instability axis where helicity rapidly increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 There was some weak instability. Note the location of the tornado was near the "nose" of the instability axis where helicity rapidly increased. Listed from bottom to top you have SFC CAPE, MUCAPE, 3KM CAPE (all valid at 18z), then the 14Z 1KM Helicity, and finally the 17Z 1KM Helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 NWUS56 KPQR 150125 LSRPQR PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 525 PM PST TUE DEC 14 2010 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1144 AM TORNADO AUMSVILLE 44.85N 122.87W 12/14/2010 MARION OR NWS STORM SURVEY *** 2 INJ *** ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE RATING OF EF2 WITH ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS 110 TO 120 MPH. TWO INJURIES, TWENTY FIVE STRUCTURES DAMAGED, THIRTY OR MORE LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN OR SNAPPED OFF, FIVE SHEDS DAMAGED, TWO SEMI TRAILERS TIPPED. PRELIMINARLY ESTIMATED LENGTH OF 1 MILE AND WIDTH OF 150 YARDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NWUS56 KPQR 150125 LSRPQR PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 525 PM PST TUE DEC 14 2010 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1144 AM TORNADO AUMSVILLE 44.85N 122.87W 12/14/2010 MARION OR NWS STORM SURVEY *** 2 INJ *** ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE RATING OF EF2 WITH ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS 110 TO 120 MPH. TWO INJURIES, TWENTY FIVE STRUCTURES DAMAGED, THIRTY OR MORE LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN OR SNAPPED OFF, FIVE SHEDS DAMAGED, TWO SEMI TRAILERS TIPPED. PRELIMINARLY ESTIMATED LENGTH OF 1 MILE AND WIDTH OF 150 YARDS. Looks like my EF-2 call was right on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Could this be an EF3 Tornado? vs a tornado from 2007 in Pottersvile, MI You have to take the quality of the construction into account, and-- even from a casual glance-- it's clearly inferior in the OR example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's cause for celebration when OR gets interestin' wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Coastal Oregon gets interesting weather every Winter-in fact a hurricane chaser like you would probably enjoy one of those big coastal storms on the OR coast. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Coastal Oregon gets interesting weather every Winter-in fact a hurricane chaser like you would probably enjoy one of those big coastal storms on the OR coast. Steve He refuses, on principle. The principle that I suggested it to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Given the damage pictures and descriptions, this will most likely be classified an EF2. Pretty darn impressive. Congrats on your call, Mallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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