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EasternUSWX

Central PA Thread

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Lowest of the season for me this morning. Got down to -10.8°F @ 750AM. I wonder if we can match that tonight if the skies stay clear. Right now it is already colder than last night, currently at 4.7°F.

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Todays 12z Euro was trolling a potential marginal moderate snowfall for the north and maybe central this coming weekend. You know how that goes this winter.. at any rate I still would be on the lookout late week for some kind of a wave to run along the increasing gradient as the warm air starts trying to press out the the cold air thats left and perhaps salvage a bit of snow that would immediately die a painful death the following week. With that said warmth the last couple major model cycles (0&12z GFS and 12z Euro) was not as ridiculous as it had been. Yea it'll be warm, but reopening the swimming pools probably gets put on hold. Still looks to be some days in the 50s next week.

This pattern is just hellbent on sucking this winter. If we were to rewind back to last winter, we opened up with a significant -NAO/AO that picked right back up where if had left off in 09/10. And when the NAO/AO started to level off in Jan, a +PNA took over keeping us mainly cold thru half of February. It could've done better in the snow department in places but it was probably about the longest stretch of consistent cold weather I can think of. This winter we've had a really positive NAO/AO and only a mildly positive PNA and a -EPO. And now with a somewhat better outlook on the AO and meh on the NAO, the PNA is taking a sizeable dive into pretty negative territory. The western slopes ought to be having some great skiiing/boarding in the next couple weeks.

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Some of us can't even get the over running events to work in our favor. smh

Haha i was just messin with ya. Yea lookin at the 21z SREF's that looks about the amount of wintry precip you might see with this next system. Probably will see some advisories up north and in the Pocono's for some freezing rain before it all goes over to rain. Hopefully we just get thru the system without alot of overall QPF.

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Haha i was just messin with ya. Yea lookin at the 21z SREF's that looks about the amount of wintry precip you might see with this next system. Probably will see some advisories up north and in the Pocono's for some freezing rain before it all goes over to rain. Hopefully we just get thru the system without alot of overall QPF.

Oh I know.

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Was just looking at our snow total for the year. 12 degrees this morning.

Season Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season

2011-2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 - - - - - - 2.0

Well 2.0" for the season not really formatting right.

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Euro continuing it's weekend trolling on a more amplfied system. Snow to wintry mix event for AOO/UNV, all snow for IPT, MDT looks to be mostly rain. GFS keeps most stuff with this system south for now, and thats not a bad thing at this range haha. I seriously would keep an eye out on this system, especially our more northern folks.. as there may be just enough cold left before it gets run out in the wake of this one. Could be one of those classic finally see the snow but it melts the next day type deals.

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Euro continuing it's weekend trolling on a more amplfied system. Snow to wintry mix event for AOO/UNV, all snow for IPT, MDT looks to be mostly rain. GFS keeps most stuff with this system south for now, and thats not a bad thing at this range haha. I seriously would keep an eye out on this system, especially our more northern folks.. as there may be just enough cold left before it gets run out in the wake of this one. Could be one of those classic finally see the snow but it melts the next day type deals.

What are you thinking on possible icing tonight? We're up to above freezing but with low dewpoints we could still get below freezing for a bit with evap. cooling...but I don't see how a WWA would verify looking at how marginal this should be.

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What are you thinking on possible icing tonight? We're up to above freezing but with low dewpoints we could still get below freezing for a bit with evap. cooling...but I don't see how a WWA would verify looking at how marginal this should be.

I'll chime in, too - I think the advisory is overkill as this is a really marginal situation. Evap. cooling will get us near the freezing mark when the precip starts to move in. That being said, there is nothing to hold the cold air here and we have a constant flow of warmer air coming up from the south, where it's in the 50s in WV. So even if this starts as a mix, it should change to rain quickly (probably within an hour for most spots). Plus, the precip is very scattered on the northern end of this, so any mix that falls should be very light.

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I'll chime in, too - I think the advisory is overkill as this is a really marginal situation. Evap. cooling will get us near the freezing mark when the precip starts to move in. That being said, there is nothing to hold the cold air here and we have a constant flow of warmer air coming up from the south, where it's in the 50s in WV. So even if this starts as a mix, it should change to rain quickly (probably within an hour for most spots). Plus, the precip is very scattered on the northern end of this, so any mix that falls should be very light.

Yea i agree, locations further northeast might see a little bit more icing but otherwise this should be a relatively minor low QPF event. Since it's been pretty cold the last few days, you might see certain surfaces perhaps get a little bit of ice.

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I'll chime in, too - I think the advisory is overkill as this is a really marginal situation. Evap. cooling will get us near the freezing mark when the precip starts to move in. That being said, there is nothing to hold the cold air here and we have a constant flow of warmer air coming up from the south, where it's in the 50s in WV. So even if this starts as a mix, it should change to rain quickly (probably within an hour for most spots). Plus, the precip is very scattered on the northern end of this, so any mix that falls should be very light.

Exactly... looks like a few areas (especially in the NE part of the state) could get a very light glaze on trees/untreated surfaces, but not looking at anything problematic. Without an influx of colder air, feezing rain is a suicidal process. Freezing can warm the surface quite a bit (latent heat release) ending any ZR fairly quickly. Could see a couple snowflakes, or more likely IP to start though.

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ARW/NMM loops are in agreement with a band or two of mix for the SRV. Then rain.

West PA looks to have a more significant onslaught of mix before the change.

NE PA are the real winners/losers will a prolong period of mix.

If anybody gets advisories, it should be that region.

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What are you thinking on possible icing tonight? We're up to above freezing but with low dewpoints we could still get below freezing for a bit with evap. cooling...but I don't see how a WWA would verify looking at how marginal this should be.

Even the slightest trace of freezing rain will qualify for an advisory. They probably issued the WWA instead of a Freezing Rain Advisory due to the potential for a hint of sn/ip to start.

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Even the slightest trace of freezing rain will qualify for an advisory. They probably issued the WWA instead of a Freezing Rain Advisory due to the potential for a hint of sn/ip to start.

Ok. I know there was an event back in Atlanta last year where we got .1-.2" of ice (enough to cause issues on roads) and all that was issued was an SWS during the event. I assume the NWS didn't expect there to be icing, but I had always thought there was a threshold level to issue an advisory/warning.

Either way looks pretty insignificant. Back to watching the models for the weekend system...

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Ok. I know there was an event back in Atlanta last year where we got .1-.2" of ice (enough to cause issues on roads) and all that was issued was an SWS during the event. I assume the NWS didn't expect there to be icing, but I had always thought there was a threshold level to issue an advisory/warning.

Either way looks pretty insignificant. Back to watching the models for the weekend system...

The thresholds for State College CWA are here. I'm not sure about that event... but it .1-.2" of ice definately meets the requirements for a FRA or a WWA if there are several precip types involved, especially in the south.

But precip is expanding nicely to our west (although bright banding is making it look more ominous than it really is). Looking at spc mesoanalysis, were probably still below freezing at most levels and could see a little accumulating snow/sleet at the start. Pavement temperature hovering around 31°F.

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