Ji Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Im going to bed. When i wake up, i want to read this quote from Tombo ECMWF 96-Moderate to heavy precip over DC. 850 line Fredricksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Im going to bed. When i wake up, i want to read this quote from Tombo ECMWF 96-Moderate to heavy precip over DC. 850 line Fredricksburg lol i can put that in there, but i can lie remember lol....anyways, i think tonight was some good trends. We all knew the 18z was bonk. The fact that 0z gfs still has frozen precip for us is a win. The gem came further south and hold potential for a wave or secondary development, and the nam possibly holding the same cards, seems like a good night...so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 well looking at the gem more, it doesnt look like the gem transfers like john said. The track is further south, alot further south than 12z i believe. But yea i would imagine there would be. Well for once I hoping that the LV and NE PA do not screwed with the dry slot. All last year, we got screwed from the southern born low pressures was dry slotting. Also I am somehwhat concerned the fetch off the ocean will hurt us because of the warmer waters now and will keep us more liquid. The only good thing that everyone will remember about this event other than the ushering of pretty cold temps is the potential for dollar size flakes for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 here is the nogaps, looks like the gfs. Looks like a wave develops along the front that intensifies further north.. http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 here is the nogaps, looks like the gfs. Looks like a wave develops along the front that intensifies further north.. http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml thats a horrible run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 thats a horrible run lol i didnt say it was great, i was just saying its kind of the same idea towards the gfs with a wave on the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 here are the gfs ens runs, that illustrate what john and i were showing visually http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12084.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12096.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 here are the gfs ens runs, that illustrate what john and i were showing visually http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12084.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12096.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12108.gif lol...the mean never gets mean above 0.0 at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Is the ECM reports going in here or in the general forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Euro is up, can we see it trend this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 No major changes on the ECMWF through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Less enthused with the clipper when compared to the GFS, so far, but also flatter with the shortwave entering the Pac NW when compared to it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Through 48 hours it's definitely going with higher heights over the East compared to the GFS..but again, compared to it's 12z run it's flatter out west and the trough is more broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Everything still way northwest of the GFS depiction through 66 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Compared to it's 12z run, the trough orientation is better if you want to try and get a secondary development, but it's nowhere near the GFS depiction aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's still trying to go negatively tilted with the H5 heights at 72 hours...I suppose that's a straw to grasp at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 This is an entirely different depiction from the GFS...by hundreds of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 At 84 hours it's trying to develop the secondary...the PV phase hasn't yet occurred but is beginning. The trough is digging big time..and just now going favorably tilted with the base of the trough nearing the Gulf coast in MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Very warm at 90 hours and way further west from the GFS...but I suppose we could still see some back end stuff develop if the secondary can really get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 One point can be made, though...it's way southeast and less organized than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The Euro is ugly early on. But look how far south it digs and elongates the trof and presumably vort max. That should cause a surface center to jump or redevelop further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 980 surface low over Eastern Ny at 108 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Back end snows look like they get DC at 108...2m temps questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 CCB develops over Central and portions of Eastern PA at 114 hrs. The low is around 976 in Northeast New York but there's still a ton of baggy isobars along the front. Light to moderate precip for basically everyone at that hour..so the possibility of a few inches of backend stuff has been introduced this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Weird run and it definitely seems caught in between solutions...it jumped east but wasn't ready to give up on it's primary and that torched the east coast. Still the suburbs get some frozen precip and especially Central PA to Upstate NY get hammered as the CCB develops..a feature that was hundreds of miles further north and west at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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