tornadotony Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 small svr threat here today along front but really wish i was in northeast CO today. Yep looks like a beautiful day north of the Palmer Divide. God I love that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:55 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 17 AUGUST 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO... TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= TIMMINS - COCHRANE - IROQUOIS FALLS. AT 2:50 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS 100 KM WEST OF TIMMINS AND IS TRACKING EASTWARD AT 100 KM/H. Heh, here comes the calvary -- THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO HAS ISSUED A RED ALERT DUE TO A TORNADO WARNING IN TIMMINS - COCHRANE - IROQUOIS FALLS Emergency Situation: Environment Canada has issued a Tornado Warning in an area described as TIMMINS - COCHRANE, AND IROQUIS FALLS. Recommended Actions: Emergency Management Ontario recommends that persons in the area described above IMMEDIATELY shelter. Everyone in this area should immediately move indoors, and away from doors and windows, preferably into a basement area if that is possible. Do not pick up family members from schools, daycares and institutions such as hospitals and nursing homes. Plans are in place to protect them. People currently outside this area are advised not to enter this area until further notice. If it is safe to do so, pets and livestock should be removed quickly from outside. Do not call 911 for information about this emergency. This Red Alert will end at 1535 hrs, unless a further extension is requested. For further information visit www.ontario.ca/emo. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Wow, these things are terrible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Wow, these things are terrible... EMO couldn't keep up with their red alerts during the tornado warnings on July 23 for six counties spanned over about two hours. They progressively got worse with each new warning missing some, making up areas, adding areas that weren't under a warning, etc etc. Can't wait to see how they deal with an outbreak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN SD...WRN NEB...NE CO AND FAR NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 172000Z - 172200Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS UNCLEAR...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN SUPPORT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING NEAR THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS LINGERS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING EAST OF SIDNEY NEB NORTHWARD THROUGH AREAS NEAR/WEST OF PHILIP SD. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA ARE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA DURING THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. ONCE STORMS FORM...MODESTLY STRONG AND SHEARED WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 08/17/2011 ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:47 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 17 AUGUST 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO... TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= KAPUSKASING - HEARST - SMOOTH ROCK FALLS =NEW= LITTLE ABITIBI - KESAGAMI LAKE. AT 5:40 PM EDT, WEATHER RADAR INDICATES THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 40 KM EAST OF KAPUSKASING IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. THE THUNDERSTORM IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AT 80 KM/H AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. Ah yes, the calvary are back August 17, 2011 6:03 PM THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO HAS ISSUED A RED ALERT FOR KAPUSKASING - HEARST - SMOOTH ROCK FALLS - LITTLE ABITIBI - KESAGAMI LAKE Emergency Situation: Environment Canada has issued a Tornado Warning in an area described as KAPUSKASING - HEARST - SMOOTH ROCK FALLS - LITTLE ABITIBI - KESAGAMI LAKE Recommended Actions: Emergency Management Ontario recommends that persons in the area described above IMMEDIATELY shelter. Everyone in this area should immediately move indoors, and away from doors and windows, preferably into a basement area if that is possible. Do not pick up family members from schools, daycares and institutions such as hospitals and nursing homes. Plans are in place to protect them. People currently outside this area are advised not to enter this area until further notice. If it is safe to do so, pets and livestock should be removed quickly from outside. Do not call 911 for information about this emergency. This Red Alert will end at 1900 hrs, unless a further extension is requested. That there tornado warning is about 320km long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Multiple supercells lined up across North NE/SD. These are both for the same storm (Cherry County, NE again). Strong couplet evident and Mullen is directly in the path of this... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 545 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011 NEC031-180015- /O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-110818T0015Z/ CHERRY NE- 545 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM MDT... AT 544 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 97 CROSSING BIG CREEK...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF MULLEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HIGHWAY 97 MILE MARKER 80. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 540 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 615 PM MDT * AT 535 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF ROUND LAKE...OR 31 MILES NORTHWEST OF MULLEN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SPECKEL MEIR LAKE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Classic supercell structure now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Another beauty in NE tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Do you have the velocities? New Warning, includes Mullen. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 607 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... NORTHERN HOOKER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 645 PM MDT * AT 602 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF WHITMAN ROAD CROSSING THE NORTH BRANCH OF THE MIDDLE LOUP RIVER...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF MULLEN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MULLEN AND HIGHWAY 2 MILE MARKER 170. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Yep, here they are: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Nice looking couplet there, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Noice! Hooker County NE http://www.severestu...onzales&uid=270 Woah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Seen something like that from Mike Hollingshead back in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Yep, here they are: hint of a TBSS in that thing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Man nice radar shots from today, tomorrow is another high risk high reward day, not sure if the 7 hour drive will be worth it. I really wish the low level wind flow was a bit stronger but i'm leaning towards a no go just too far to drive and very unlikely to get anything other than a brief spin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Another fun nite in North Platte... I stuck together a quickie web page with reports and an IEM radar/reports page. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lbf/?n=2011aug17severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Another fun nite in North Platte... I stuck together a quickie web page with reports and an IEM radar/reports page. http://www.crh.noaa....2011aug17severe Has the strength of the Wood Lake tornado been determined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Tomorrow looks like it could be decent, but after that...yeah... Gotta love those "Potential Too Low" 4-8 day outlooks... Watching the tropics looks like the way to go next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The 6ZGFS is off the charts for ESE Nebraska today. If the low level helicity values of 300+ verify with 2000+ CAPE and 60 knots 0-6 km bulk shear, then we could definitely see some nice action if it stays discrete tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Based off the 12z RUC alone I'd like to be along the NE/SD border, it develops a small area of low pressure around 21z which the sfc winds respond to and back in northern NE into SD near the low and getting a good 50kt mid-level jet max coming out of WY late this afternoon/evening which should help set off CI. If something can stay discrete and allow the LLJ to get going after 0z, were getting 0-1km helicity values between 150-200 m2/s2 juxtaposed with ALOT of instability and moisture...I would rule out a strong tornado this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 nice looking boundary between ODX-ONL (my morning target) in NE...79/68 at ONL with 20kt easterly sfc winds and 90/72 at ODX and 86/73 at BVN with backed flow. also mid-upper 70 dews in southeast NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Storm to the WNW of Sioux City is a beast.. TBSS on it now. I'm getting 78 dbz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Storm to the WNW of Sioux City is a beast.. TBSS on it now. I'm getting 78 dbz... I think this is the first time I've seen a 5.00" hail marker on GRL2A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Those hailers along the NE/IA border are ridiculous. Watching them from afar...we have a few marginally severe storms along OAX's border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Soft ball sized hail just reported on the west side of downtown Omaha Live out of Omaha: http://ww2.wowt.com/...ed&rnd=50877192 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 515 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0510 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W 08/18/2011 E1.75 INCH DOUGLAS NE TRAINED SPOTTER UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR 40TH STREET AND NORTH POST ROAD. 0512 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W 08/18/2011 E2.75 INCH DOUGLAS NE TRAINED SPOTTER UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL AT INTERSTATE 680 AND 48TH STREET 0518 PM HAIL 1 N OMAHA 41.28N 96.01W 08/18/2011 E1.75 INCH DOUGLAS NE AMATEUR RADIO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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