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Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion


patrick7032
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PABR 272353Z 05015KT 2SM -SN BR FEW009 BKN015 OVC030 00/M02 A2993 RMK AO2 SNB32 SLP134 P0000 60000 4/001 T00001022 10000 21017 $

Barrow has an inch of snow on the ground.

Possibly a chance for the higher elevations in Anchorage (as in where people live, not the peaks) has a chance to see some snow on Thursday morning.

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It's getting closer to that time of year.....here is an exert from this morning's discussion from the Anchorage Forecast Office which verified in lower elevations as well in southwest Alaska at Dillingham.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

SHOWERS/RAIN AND SOME MIX OF SNOW(HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SPREAD

ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. PATCHY

FOG AND STRATUS WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH MAY FORM

OVER COOK INLET LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE EAST

AND SOUTH WILL BRING RAIN TO COASTS FRI AND SAT...WITH SOME SHOWERS

INLAND. EXPECT THAT THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF FRI MORNING WILL

SPREAD TO THE NORTH GULF FRI EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SAT.

PADL 292147Z 06006KT 6SM -RA SN BR FEW018 OVC022 03/00 A2971

PADL 292125Z 08006KT 8SM -RA SN BKN024 OVC034 03/M01 A2972

post-767-0-19321500-1317341261.jpg

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Glad you enjoyed the pic and that my college in Anchorage was able to capture such a beautiful pic.

There were some northern lights the past night here; I unfortunately was not able to take a correct shot :thumbsdown:!

Yesterday -3.0/10.4, today 2.2/8.2. It is milder here in south Yukon with the south-east wind.

Tomorrow, some snowflakes or raindrops before a sunny and cooler weekend.

Have a great evening :pimp:!

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Lots of freshies on the front range this morning, doesn't show up great in the webcam pic. Maybe later in the day. Freezing level down to 2300ft.

post-1451-0-78560100-1317399653.jpg

1.3C this morning, with some light rain (snow?).

1.4 mm.

If you want to see some snow (I am not sure, but think there will be), just have a look at the webcams in the territory :)

http://meteowhitehor...a/wxwebcam.php.

It is still dark, but should be fine in one hour !

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The clouds keep "teasing me"....have a TT of 57 and SI of near 0 (have learned <+4 is good for thunderstorms in Alaska)...so had some TCU's develop into CB's.

PACD 301918Z 30015KT 8SM SCT015CB BKN030 OVC080 07/06 A2926 RMK AO2 RAB02E17 CB W MOV SE TCU N BINOVC NE-SE P0000

PACD 301911Z 30014KT 6SM -RA BR SCT015TCU BKN025 BKN080 BKN180 07/05 A2926 RMK AO2 RAB02 TCU NW-N P0000

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ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY WEEKLY UPDATE

Friday, September 30, 2011 11:00 AM (Friday, September 30, 2011 19:00 UTC)

CLEVELAND VOLCANO (CAVW #1101-24-)

52°49'20" N 169°56'42" W, Summit Elevation 5676 ft (1730 m)

Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH

Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

The eruption of a lava dome in the summit crater of Cleveland Volcano continues. Satellite observations over the past week detected elevated surface temperatures at the summit on September 23 and 28 and slow growth in the size of the dome. As of September 26, the lava dome was entirely contained within the summit crater, approximately 15-20 meters (49 to 66 feet) below the eastern rim. AVO has received no other reports of activity at this volcano.

If the lava dome continues to grow in the summit crater, the possibility of an explosive event increases. With continued lava dome growth, lava may eventually overflow the crater rim to produce a lava flow and/or collapse to produce pyroclastic flows. Sudden collapse of the effusing lava could result in the generation of a volcanic ash cloud. However, lava may continue to erupt without an explosive event. It is possible that explosions from the summit crater vent could produce ash clouds that may exceed 20,000 ft above sea level. These events can occur without warning and may go undetected in satellite imagery for hours. However, lightning associated with significant ash-producing events may be detected within minutes using an automated alarm system.

AVO does not have a real-time seismic network on the volcano and thus we are unable to track local earthquake activity related to volcanic unrest, provide forecasts of eruptive activity, or confirmation of explosive, ash-producing events. In the event of a large explosive eruption like that in 2001, it is possible that seismic signals may be recorded on AVO seismic networks at nearby volcanoes. AVO will continue to monitor the volcano using multiple sources of satellite lightning detection, and distant seismic data.

Cleveland volcano forms the western half of Chuginadak Island, a remote and uninhabited island in the east central Aleutians. It is located about 75 km (45 mi.) west of the community of Nikolski, and 1500 km (940 mi.) southwest of Anchorage. The volcano's most recent significant eruption began in February, 2001 and it produced 3 explosive events that produced ash clouds as high as 12 km (39,000 ft) above sea level. The 2001 eruption also produced a rubbly lava flow and hot avalanche that reached the sea. The most recent minor ash emissions were observed in January and June 2009.

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It looks like a couple of good storms will hit the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutian Island chain next week. Below is an exert from this mornings forecast discussion from the Anchorage Forecast Office and a "sample" marine zone for one of the effected areas. Note the 60kt+ winds in the model data for the middle of the week. The jet pattern certainly supports it. Looks like the jet pattern will stay "active" through the week. We may have a storm with HURRICANE FORCE WINDS by mid week. A sign of things to come in another month when the "real" storms start to "spin up"....:thumbsup:....:lmao:

.ALEUTIANS...A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS LOW LEVEL JET HAVE

ALREADY SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH AT SHEMYA EARLY THIS

MORNING. WHILE THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE KAMCHATKA

PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL BRING

STRONG GUSTS ACROSS THE BERING BY THIS EVENING. THE MORE POTENT

STINGER JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING STORM FORCE

WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY

SUNDAY EVENING.

PKZ176-020300-

WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU

400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT AFTER

MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.

.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.

.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT.

.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

post-767-0-21572800-1317500510.jpg

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Not something you see everyday in an observation up here....had to issue a short term forecast for it....:lmao:

PACD 032014Z 27019KT 10SM -RA FEW015 BKN033 OVC044 07/06 A2942 RMK AO2 PK WND 26027/1955 RAB1954GSB09E14 VIS LWR SW P0000 $

PACD 032009Z 27018G25KT 10SM GSRA SCT025 SCT032 OVC044 08/06 A2942 RMK AO2 PK WND 26027/1955 RAB1954GSB09 VIS LWR SW P0000 $

FPAK78PACD_AKZ181

-----------------

AKZ181-040200-

ALASKA PENINSULA-

INCLUDING...COLD BAY...SAND POINT

1210 PM AKDT MON OCT 3 2011

.NOW...

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA

THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 4PM WILL BE LESS

THAN 0.1 INCHES. SOME SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL MAY OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER

SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS OF THE PENINSULA.

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Good evening everybody flowers.gif!

-2.4/8.4 today, now -0.2c with a risk of snow for tomorrow !

Here are some pictures I took on the Alaska Highway between Whitehorse and the lake of Kluane. Sunny conditions, only 2C at 1000m high.

You can see St-Elias Mountains, I love the colors at this season with blond grass, first snow on the peaks, glaciers, ...

111003-HJ1.jpg

111003-HJ2.jpg

111003-HJ3.jpg

111003-HJ4.jpg

Some elks:

111003-HJ5.jpg

111003-HJ6.jpg

Ciao for nowthumbup1.gif!

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Good stuff, thanks for sharing!

Good evening everybody flowers.gif!

-2.4/8.4 today, now -0.2c with a risk of snow for tomorrow !

Here are some pictures I took on the Alaska Highway between Whitehorse and the lake of Kluane. Sunny conditions, only 2C at 1000m high.

You can see St-Elias Mountains, I love the colors at this season with blond grass, first snow on the peaks, glaciers, ...

Some elks:

Ciao for nowthumbup1.gif!

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Hello everybody,

Low of -1.2C this morning, expected high of 8C.

Temperatures ranging from -12 to +2 across the territory, mostly between -4 and 0C

EC updated its forecast and joined GFS. The conditions should be ok from now to Friday with mild temperatures before a change for the weekend and some precipitations on Saturday with cooler temperatures.

Have a good day !

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