opengeo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 6z DGEX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 As I mentioned in the MA thread Look at the 250MB Jet and compare the low track to it, If you have a low crossing the Jet like that, then I'm Santa Claus. In other words, the low is trying too hard to get to the coast that its ignoring synoptics and dynamics. And There is signals there with respect to a storm in that period but there is details to be worked out, and biases that are in place. For example GFS diving energy too far south, GFS holding onto a pattern too long, and the GFS trying to transition to the coast too early. All are things that need to be taken into effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Look at the 250MB Jet and compare the low track to it, If you have a low crossing the Jet like that, then I'm Santa Claus. In other words, the low is trying too hard to get to the coast that its ignoring synoptics and dynamics. There is signals there with respect to a storm in that period but there is details to be worked out, and biases that are in place. For example GFS diving energy too far south, GFS holding onto a pattern too long, and the GFS trying to transition to the coast too early. All are things that need to be taken into effect. Meaning that given the upper air features, you would expect this to slide out to sea as modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Meaning that given the upper air features, you would expect this to slide out to sea as modeled? I would think it would go inland...there is again a lack of a -NAO or true 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 I would think it would go inland...there is again a lack of a -NAO or true 50/50 low. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 And that is what the ECMWF shows. I would think it would go inland...there is again a lack of a -NAO or true 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I would think it would go inland...there is again a lack of a -NAO or true 50/50 low. This, whether or not its East or West of the mountains remains to be seen. Although with it showing a lack of -NAO and no true 50/50, I'd hedge my bets on it going west of the mountains, and if you ignore the GFS bias it probably would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 This, whether or not its East or West of the mountains remains to be seen. Although with it showing a lack of -NAO and no true 50/50, I'd hedge my bets on it going west of the mountains, and if you ignore the GFS bias it probably would. The more likely scenario would be that the NAO IS NEGATIVE, the 50/50 is there but the western ridge is unable to really develop causing the storm to just go offshore....of course no model currently shows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The more likely scenario would be that the NAO IS NEGATIVE, the 50/50 is there but the western ridge is unable to really develop causing the storm to just go offshore....of course no model currently shows that. I would argue a more meridional flow and there being a ridge along the west coast with a shortwave ridge between clipper 1 and this system. Plus this is in the range of where the models have all been latching onto the NAO going near Neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Of course. You live west of the mountains JI. I welcome your opinion. But with all due respect, looking at the GFS 180 hr, i would expect the low to go exactly where it did. Try to wrap around the low northeast of maine which would move it ene. The high to the northwest is building making it difficult to move northerly. However, the next models will probably be a different solution since it's still 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Guys, keep your trolling of each other out of a good model thread. Stebo, if there isn't a model thread in your region, start one. Ji, I know you're here because there's better model discussion in this forum than the Mid-Atlantic, but please don't trash it up arguing with Stebo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Not to mention the fact that it's 6z and the GFS loses resolution after 180.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Guys, keep your trolling of each other out of a good model thread. Stebo, if there isn't a model thread in your region, start one. Ji, I know you're here because there's better model discussion in this forum than the Mid-Atlantic, but please don't trash it up arguing with Stebo. Voyager, I'd like to think it is ok that I post on a model discussion in any region. I didn't ask to be trolled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Not to mention the fact that it's 6z and the GFS loses resolution after 180.. Well now its 192 that the res change is but still both valid points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 JI. I welcome your opinion. But with all due respect, looking at the GFS 180 hr, i would expect the low to go exactly where it did. Try to wrap around the low northeast of maine which would move it ene. The high to the northwest is building making it difficult to move northerly. However, the next models will probably be a different solution since it's still 8 days out. Sorry JI. I meant Stebo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Voyager, I'd like to think it is ok that I post on a model discussion in any region. I didn't ask to be trolled. I know, and it is. Perhaps I worded it wrong. Sorry about that, but we don't need trolling carrying over from the ot thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I know, and it is. Perhaps I worded it wrong. Sorry about that, but it's carrying over from the ot thread. Like I said I was analyzing a model I didn't ask for Ji to come rolling through spouting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Sorry JI. I meant Stebo. Yes just because its 6z and a ways out doesn't mean I can't explain why it is mishandling things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yes just because its 6z and a ways out doesn't mean I can't explain why it is mishandling things. No problem here for you to express your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I see the GGEM/EURO say no snow for Mid Atlantic, that makes me Sorry but when a fellow makes a post like this, i don't really want his model analysis in this regions forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Sorry but when a fellow makes a post like this, i don't really want his model analysis in this regions forum. Didn't see that post. We should all try to keep our dialogue related to model analyses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 come on Ji get the hell out of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Didn't see that post. We should all try to keep our dialogue related to model analyses. It's over in Ji's thread in OT. In another post Ji posted a graphic of the GFS which showed a precip hole over our region and Mr Stebo posted, "good, i hope it stays like that all winter" He probably just has penis envy from our historic winter last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 I believe SnowGoose agreed with his 6z analysis, but yeah, this guy obviously likes to troll MA/NE posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Which is unfortunate because I enjoyed his analysis but after reading some of the posts that were made in the other thread, they really put the analysis in question. I believe SnowGoose agreed with his 6z analysi, but yeah, this guy obviously likes to troll MA/NE posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Sorry but when a fellow makes a post like this, i don't really want his model analysis in this regions forum. Yeah my OT post in ruse of Ji hardly comparable to real model analysis which I was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I believe SnowGoose agreed with his 6z analysis, but yeah, this guy obviously likes to troll MA/NE posters. Nah, just one who cancels winter daily. Trust me OT stuff is hardly comparable to real model analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Nah, just one who cancels winter daily. Trust me OT stuff is hardly comparable to real model analysis. JI doesn't bother me at all, but I can see how he could annoy the **** out of people, so I believe you. Hope you are wrong about the mid-month threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Okay, I think this is the first time this season we've seen a storm modeled on the GFS for 3 runs in a row now! Pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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