flwxwatcher45 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al962011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201107071222 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011070706, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 7, 2011 Author Share Posted July 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Worst code orange ever. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Worst code orange ever. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. Agreed POS no model likes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Worst code orange ever. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. Well see what happens tomorrow. It looks rather horrible now, but the llc has become markedly better defined over the past 24 hours. The strongest shear, while remaining strong, is expected to shift west with time.The shear direction is also expected to shift out of the SSE, which might actually help to enhance outflow at some point tomorrow. While I'd say the odds are against this system being fully tropical in nature, having a hybrid system form out of such an upper level environment is not unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Lol it's fun to watch the NHC personalities raise and drop the probabilities of 96L. Alvia dropped it to 10% at 8am after Stewart raised it to 40% last night. Overall presentation looks slightly better this morning, as the large upper level low shifts slowly westward allowing convection to build northward from the llc thanks to enhanced divergence. Still though upper level winds still looks rather hostile for the next 24-48 hours before an upper level anticyclone builds over the SE. I don't think 96L will hang around long enough to take advantage of the upper level environment. The ECWMF which had been the most bullish no longer shows a concentrated area of low level vorticity and now shows a strung out mess similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I have a feeling recon doesn't fly today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 A strung-out mess producing much needed rain here in S GA over the next few days would be just what the doc ordered. Tropical type moisture w/o the associated headaches of high winds or flooding. Very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 A strung-out mess producing much needed rain here in S GA over the next few days would be just what the doc ordered. Tropical type moisture w/o the associated headaches of high winds or flooding. Very nice! Agreed Gawx.. it's dry as a bone in Charleston.. we need the rain any way we can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Good riddance... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_DEACTIVATE_al962011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201107081250 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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