flwxwatcher45 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Still looks good for some much needed rain later this week and maybe more depending on how the Tropical wave develops. Todays Tampa AFD mentions this. The last couple runs of the EURO also are more robust with some energy into the Eastern Gulf. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 1244 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)... THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE AREA...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA...AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE UPPER PATTER WILL REMAIN WITH 500 MB RIDGING OVERHEAD. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS AND BRING IT NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE OR AS STRONG WITH THIS LOW. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND PWATS WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AS SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS. HAVE INCREASED WEDNESDAY POPS INTO THE HIGH END OF CHANCE...CLOUD COVER AS WELL. WILL NEED TO DO MORE IF THE NAM IS CORRECT WITH ITS SURFACE LOW POSITION. ALSO RAISED SKY COVER WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAME REASONS AND LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPS. INSTEAD OF THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND ON TUESDAY...THEY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AS IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Just seeing that gets me fired up. Nothing will probably come of it but man it gets the blood moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Just seeing that gets me fired up. Nothing will probably come of it but man it gets the blood moving. Your right, nothing probably will come of it but I still have the feeling something will form in the Gulf this week. We shall see but like you said, it does get the blood moving even if it doesn't amount to much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Im expecting some rain from the late week tropical wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 CPC has Central and Southern Florida pegged for heavy rain Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Pretty bullish AFD from the melbourne office this afternoon, looking good for some heavy rain. THU-FRI...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A VERY WET SCENARIO. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY INVOF SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS MOVING NW AND THEN N AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH LWRG OF MID LVL HGTS OVER THE SE AND CTRL GOMEX ASCD WITH WK MID/UPR TROUGHING. NET RESULT IS DEEPENING SE AND THEN SRLY FLOW...WHICH DRAWS VERY DEEP MEAN PWATS AOA 2.0 INTO CTRL FL. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT. RAIN CHANCES OF 60 PERCENT EXPECTED SOUTH OF ORLANDO THU TO 40 PERCENT VOLUSIA. MODELS SHOW US IN THE SOUP FOR FRIDAY WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Nice! I like! I like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The tropical wave is here, large area of rain over the Keys and parts of South Florida and it's the morning! Things are gonna go nuts rainfall wise later with heating thrown in. It's also very humid from the wave, dewpoints at 80 in spots. I always love the first tropical wave of the year, you can really tell how things switch from semi-continental to fully tropical when they come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The tropical wave is here, large area of rain over the Keys and parts of South Florida and it's the morning! Things are gonna go nuts rainfall wise later with heating thrown in. It's also very humid from the wave, dewpoints at 80 in spots. I always love the first tropical wave of the year, you can really tell how things switch from semi-continental to fully tropical when they come through. Yep it looks like a good part of the state is going to get dumped on over the next 2 or 3 days . Looks like PWATS continue to stay high after the waves passage. Good times ahead rain-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 Yep it looks like a good part of the state is going to get dumped on over the next 2 or 3 days . Looks like PWATS continue to stay high after the waves passage. Good times ahead rain-wise. True drought busting potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 The tropical wave is here, large area of rain over the Keys and parts of South Florida and it's the morning! Things are gonna go nuts rainfall wise later with heating thrown in. It's also very humid from the wave, dewpoints at 80 in spots. I always love the first tropical wave of the year, you can really tell how things switch from semi-continental to fully tropical when they come through. Nearly sig worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 True drought busting potential! Yea, things are looking good. Of course like i do every year with early tropical waves, I was like the CMC model and got to excited thinking this tropical wave would develop more then it's going too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 Yea, things are looking good. Of course like i do every year with early tropical waves, I was like the CMC model and got to excited thinking this tropical wave would develop more then it's going too. Just as long as it develops some nice small ponds around town I will be more than happy. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Do you guys have any good PWAT links? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Do you guys have any good PWAT links? http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Just as long as it develops some nice small ponds around town I will be more than happy. lol I will settle for that myself. As the link Turtle posted shows, the juice is flowing into Florida now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Only a pathetic 0.32" today so far. At least it held the temperatures down enough to turn off the A/C for a few hours. Tomorrow looks better for some serious rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 Only a pathetic 0.32" today so far. At least it held the temperatures down enough to turn off the A/C for a few hours. Tomorrow looks better for some serious rain. One mans trash is another mans treasure I can really feel the elevated dew point as I just got home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 http://cimss.ssec.wi.../natl/main.html Thanks turtle. When looking at PWAT values you look at the mid and upper levels right? The lower levels wouldn't be a good indicator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Thanks turtle. When looking at PWAT values you look at the mid and upper levels right? The lower levels wouldn't be a good indicator? PWAT is the integrated water through the entire atmosphere, so all levels are taken into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 7, 2011 Author Share Posted July 7, 2011 Out of Melbourne and looking great for rain ..... but why lemonize this? .DISCUSSION... ...HIGH RAIN CHANCES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...INVERTED TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT N/NWAND IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND NW BAHAMAS LATE THISAFTN. SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ACROSS EC FL AS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COMBINES WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE TO PULL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER FL PENINSULA TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MEANWHILE...ATLC SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS CROSSING THE COAST. POPS RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT FOR MARTIN/ST LUCIE COAST TO 20 PERCENT FOR VOLUSIA COAST TONIGHT. THU-FRI...LOTS OF CLOUDS AND WET. DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL PULL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH MEAN PWATS OVER 2 INCHES INTO EC FL. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT. RAIN CHANCES OF 80 PERCENT EXPECTED LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO TREASURE COAST DOWN TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW US IN THE SOUP FOR FRIDAY WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. SRLY STEERING FLOW BECOME SW BY DAYBREAK FRI...A PATTERN WHICH FAVORS THE EC FL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Ocala, Imagine if you took a magical tin can and set it outside. Now extend this magic can upwards alllll the way up into the stratosphere. (at least 20km up) Now let the air in all the layers into the can somehow (its magic) - and then seal it off. Condense every last bit of water in the massive can - and the amount that you get is the PWAT. http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=pwat Typically the PWAT is measured a couple times a day with weather balloons, there are ways to do it with satellite if I'm not mistaken as well. Unisys publishes the upper air soundings here, there are other sources as well: http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/ Choose the nearest loc to you, here is one for Miami: http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/ua_sound.php?type=no&city=kmia®ion=se&t=cur You can google up a description of how to read that chart, but for the time being - look on the right side (white letters and numbers) for: PW: Today's in Miami is 2.51. That means that if all the evaporated water in the entire atmosphere where to fall out - you'd get 2.51" at the ground. 2.51 is a very big number compared to the rest of the nation. (Detroit at 0.89, Portland 0.53, etc). Essentially it means that its very very moist and a lot of rain is able to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Its shaping up to be a very rainy day for you folks in Florida. Nice tropical moisture fetch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 A VERY tropical drive to work today. Its such a difference from frontal systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 A VERY tropical drive to work today. Its such a difference from frontal systems. Yeah, it was like a monsoon down most of I-95 on my way in to work. Quite a horrific accident right next down to downtown Miami unfortunately, things were at a standstill. An intense rain band/tropical squall is coming in from the south, could make quite the scene in the metro areas over the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 It's now 96L.. No matter what you call it things looking really good for some much needed rain for most of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 7, 2011 Author Share Posted July 7, 2011 It's now 96L.. No matter what you call it things looking really good for some much needed rain for most of Florida. MBY has been getting hammered for over an hour with heavy rain a few nasty close lightening strikes my wife says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Light rain since 8 AM. So f'ing warm and humid. Feels like a sauna. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Very nice line moving across central Florida at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 It's now 96L.. No matter what you call it things looking really good for some much needed rain for most of Florida. If it could just intensify more. Not asking much, just a good ole tropical storm. Arlene do you feel up to the task?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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