am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 since 5am So weird. Any remnant sea breeze boundary should have washed out with full sun to mix out the marine layer. I really have no idea what it could it be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 It's been sunny in Chesco all day until the last hour or so. Was there full sun in Delco/Philly? likewise...till about 1:30 it was mostly sunny...after that the clouds began to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 ok this thing really crapped the bed. you'd think I'd learn, after starting the epic March flood thread and the 3/27 snow storm thread, but no, i haven't yet. all because of the lack of shear? LCLs are a bit high, but not completely prohibitive of convection either. i dont know man, i feel the same way.. I mean, all 3 capes are something to make the plains states jealous, Lift index, EML.. its hard to imagine subsidence from storms up in MA to be strong enough to over come those thermos.. I think it's just a lack of a trigger. I wont call the threat dead till 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 So weird. Any remnant sea breeze boundary should have washed out with full sun to mix out the marine layer. I really have no idea what it could it be. The only thing I can think of is Lee's shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Look at yesterday guys. Everything was in Michigan and northward. There have been a few storms that had warnings but they can sustain the updrafts. Se PA might have a chance later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm on the other side and it feels great Temp 78 down from 89....well maybe not now its up to 82 just a 1/4 inch of rain from the downpour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 i dont know man, i feel the same way.. I mean, all 3 capes are something to make the plains states jealous, Lift index, EML.. its hard to imagine subsidence from storms up in MA to be strong enough to over come those thermos.. I think it's just a lack of a trigger. I wont call the threat dead till 6pm Lack of wind shear is probably the missing ingredient. Like I mentioned before, we've had plenty of great "on paper" threats but they don't materialize because of one missing ingredient. It's not the first time...glad to see the SPC stick to a slight risk here. It wasn't justifiable to go moderate IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 A couple of storms are trying to pop northeast of the city -- one in Bucks, one near Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Hailing like crazy in rockaway NJ. Morris county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 A couple of storms are trying to pop northeast of the city -- one in Bucks, one near Trenton. The one in Bucks is severe warned. should be nice at home. too bad I am in Langhorne. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 415 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TRENTON... WEST CENTRAL MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY... SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... SOUTHWESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 500 PM EDT * AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RICHBORO...OR 13 MILES WEST OF TRENTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... YARDLEY AND WOODSIDE AROUND 425 PM EDT... EWING AND PENNINGTON AROUND 430 PM EDT... LAWRENCEVILLE AND TRENTON AROUND 435 PM EDT... MERCERVILLE-HAMILTON SQUARE AROUND 440 PM EDT... EDINBURG AND PRINCETON AROUND 445 PM EDT... WINDSOR AROUND 450 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Brief storm here. 0.11" and a few loud claps of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm wondering if they will soon cancel the watch for SE PA. Radar returns are looking quite scant right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 dare we say bust locally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 dare we say bust locally? Was always supposed to be pulse type storms down this way. And it happened just like was forecasted, pulse type here, with monster supercells in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yeah, the conditions were ripe for a supercell that managed to get its act together, so I'd have a hard time calling this a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Was always supposed to be pulse type storms down this way. SPC was pushing discrete supercells or squall...hi res nam last night was pushing a mini squall line. The Euro was about the only model to not put something over us (it was mostly NE). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NY/PA. THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER STORMS WILL MAINTAIN A DISCRETE MODE...OR WILL ORGANIZE INTO A LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF DISCRETE MODES CAN BE MAINTAINED...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. It wasn't optimal but the SPC busted on this, IMO, locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Was always supposed to be pulse type storms down this way. And it happened just like was forecasted, pulse type here, with monster supercells in New England. I kinda agree. This was always my forecast (I did bump up a little bit this morning in lieu of the HRRR), but I can see how people got their hopes up with the 30% wind/hail probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 SPC was pushing discrete supercells or squall...hi res nam last night was pushing a mini squall line. The Euro was about the only model to not put something over us (it was mostly NE). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NY/PA. THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER STORMS WILL MAINTAIN A DISCRETE MODE...OR WILL ORGANIZE INTO A LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF DISCRETE MODES CAN BE MAINTAINED...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. It wasn't optimal but the SPC busted on this, IMO, locally. Yup, your right, I agree. Mt. Holly as a whole had it dead on though, in the AFD's and such. On a lighter note, looks like Lee's shield holds again, I expect an epic post from him later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yup, your right, I agree. Mt. Holly as a whole had it dead on though, in the AFD's and such. On a lighter note, looks like Lee's shield holds again, I expect an epic post from him later on. Definitely kudos to Mt Holly. They were on top of this from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yup, your right, I agree. Mt. Holly as a whole had it dead on though, in the AFD's and such. On a lighter note, looks like Lee's shield holds again, I expect an epic post from him later on. Yeah...but with the way things were firing in Central PA around 1 PM it looked like we had something for once. I blame the nuclear plant in Limerick and Lee's fooking shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Got a few raindrops in New Brunswick, otherwise BUST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 :facepalm: ....today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yep big time bust today. When you are in 30 % hail and wind probs you expect a little more than some clouds. Did not even get a drop of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 on to the tropical thread lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 all in all, learning experience from this. When it comes to thunderstorms its always a now casting event no matter what model shows epic hits. These arent like snowstorms where its a huge system, but these are small mesoscale events that are driven by many things. Secondly, ryan can't start anymore threads on potential threats...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Secondly, ryan can't start anymore threads on potential threats...lol Agreed. It doesn't matter which season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I guess maybe I'll agree with the majority of you. It was a bust. Tornado Watch was called off early, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Agreed. It doesn't matter which season I will go to the papers if I have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Agreed. It doesn't matter which season Don't worry, I'll be pre-busting Indiana's threats starting in August and be leaving you guys alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 This all just proves how the atmosphere is like one big game of jenga. You can build a few great towers but pull one piece out and the whole thing collapses. At least I'll be out west somewhere this time next week...chasing, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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