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Severe Weather 6/1/2011 obs & disco


Thunder Road

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ok this thing really crapped the bed.

you'd think I'd learn, after starting the epic March flood thread and the 3/27 snow storm thread, but no, i haven't yet.

all because of the lack of shear? LCLs are a bit high, but not completely prohibitive of convection either.

i dont know man, i feel the same way.. I mean, all 3 capes are something to make the plains states jealous, Lift index, EML.. its hard to imagine subsidence from storms up in MA to be strong enough to over come those thermos.. I think it's just a lack of a trigger. I wont call the threat dead till 6pm

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i dont know man, i feel the same way.. I mean, all 3 capes are something to make the plains states jealous, Lift index, EML.. its hard to imagine subsidence from storms up in MA to be strong enough to over come those thermos.. I think it's just a lack of a trigger. I wont call the threat dead till 6pm

Lack of wind shear is probably the missing ingredient. Like I mentioned before, we've had plenty of great "on paper" threats but they don't materialize because of one missing ingredient. It's not the first time...glad to see the SPC stick to a slight risk here. It wasn't justifiable to go moderate IMBY.

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A couple of storms are trying to pop northeast of the city -- one in Bucks, one near Trenton.

The one in Bucks is severe warned. should be nice at home. too bad I am in Langhorne.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

415 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TRENTON...

WEST CENTRAL MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

SOUTHWESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...

CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

RICHBORO...OR 13 MILES WEST OF TRENTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

YARDLEY AND WOODSIDE AROUND 425 PM EDT...

EWING AND PENNINGTON AROUND 430 PM EDT...

LAWRENCEVILLE AND TRENTON AROUND 435 PM EDT...

MERCERVILLE-HAMILTON SQUARE AROUND 440 PM EDT...

EDINBURG AND PRINCETON AROUND 445 PM EDT...

WINDSOR AROUND 450 PM EDT...

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Was always supposed to be pulse type storms down this way.

SPC was pushing discrete supercells or squall...hi res nam last night was pushing a mini squall line. The Euro was about the only model to not put something over us (it was mostly NE).

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NY/PA. THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER STORMS WILL MAINTAIN A DISCRETE MODE...OR WILL ORGANIZE INTO A LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF DISCRETE MODES CAN BE MAINTAINED...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

It wasn't optimal but the SPC busted on this, IMO, locally.

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Was always supposed to be pulse type storms down this way. And it happened just like was forecasted, pulse type here, with monster supercells in New England.

I kinda agree. This was always my forecast (I did bump up a little bit this morning in lieu of the HRRR), but I can see how people got their hopes up with the 30% wind/hail probs.

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SPC was pushing discrete supercells or squall...hi res nam last night was pushing a mini squall line. The Euro was about the only model to not put something over us (it was mostly NE).

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NY/PA. THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER STORMS WILL MAINTAIN A DISCRETE MODE...OR WILL ORGANIZE INTO A LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF DISCRETE MODES CAN BE MAINTAINED...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

It wasn't optimal but the SPC busted on this, IMO, locally.

Yup, your right, I agree. Mt. Holly as a whole had it dead on though, in the AFD's and such. On a lighter note, looks like Lee's shield holds again, I expect an epic post from him later on.

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Yup, your right, I agree. Mt. Holly as a whole had it dead on though, in the AFD's and such. On a lighter note, looks like Lee's shield holds again, I expect an epic post from him later on.

Definitely kudos to Mt Holly. They were on top of this from the get go.

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Yup, your right, I agree. Mt. Holly as a whole had it dead on though, in the AFD's and such. On a lighter note, looks like Lee's shield holds again, I expect an epic post from him later on.

Yeah...but with the way things were firing in Central PA around 1 PM it looked like we had something for once. I blame the nuclear plant in Limerick and Lee's fooking shield.

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all in all, learning experience from this. When it comes to thunderstorms its always a now casting event no matter what model shows epic hits. These arent like snowstorms where its a huge system, but these are small mesoscale events that are driven by many things.

Secondly, ryan can't start anymore threads on potential threats...lol

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This all just proves how the atmosphere is like one big game of jenga.

You can build a few great towers but pull one piece out and the whole thing collapses.

At least I'll be out west somewhere this time next week...chasing, hopefully.

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