0z Model thread

[isnice]

It's a fantasy vortex in the medium range

[NEXtreme]

I would bet temps end up colder then what models are depicting.

[Chris L]

I would bet temps end up colder then what models are depicting.

That's only if there is snow on the ground.

[tornadojay]

geez.. will we see any measurable precip in this entire run?

[SnoSki14]

dude...516-522dm heights will produce more than "slightly below avg" temps.

Not at the surface according to the gfs, except maybe Day 7. Doesn't look any lower than the 40s for highs except the higher elevations are far inland.

It's a really cold run for the south though, it gets colder at the surface after the vortex weakens, some big freezes down south in northern Florida.

[isnice]

never-ending lake-effect...will be mesured in feet by the lakes.

[Kaner587]

I would bet temps end up colder then what models are depicting.

If this were the heart of winter it would be seasonably cold...jetski you're flat out wrong

[tombo82685]

geez.. will we see any measurable precip in this entire run?

yes prob at the end with a cutter or something just to piss people off lol

[Chris L]

Not at the surface according to the gfs, except maybe Day 7. Doesn't look any lower than the 40s for highs except the higher elevations are far inland.

Stop reading the sfc maps.

[tornadojay]

Not at the surface according to the gfs, except maybe Day 7. Doesn't look any lower than the 40s for highs except the higher elevations are far inland.

I suppose the one thing working for a bit higher on the temp side is that there will definitely be good mixing.. most likely above 850 mb.. that should help warm things a bit.. If we had a 1040 high parked on top of us, then forget about getting the temps to rise much.

[tombo82685]

we get a little precip hr 252

[isnice]

we get a little precip hr 252

I wish I had a reason to go to Buffalo

[tornadojay]

we get a little precip hr 252

yea.. at that point, the pattern is pretty progressive.. that trof is on the move real fast... then that system explodes offshore.

[tombo82685]

alittle more precip hrs 300-312, starts as rain or a mix

[MikeS]

we get a little precip hr 252

Who doesn't love a little storm 10.5 days out

[tombo82685]

one good thing that i like seeing, is canada is filled with a ton of cold air.....

[Chris L]

yea.. at that point, the pattern is pretty progressive.. that trof is on the move real fast... then that system explodes offshore.

We are gonna be pulling our hairs out....

I feel like its gonna be one of those issues where timing we can't get it pinned down.

[tornadojay]

alittle more precip hrs 300-312, starts as rain or a mix

yea, that one books outta here real fast too.

[Dsnowx53]

zomg precipitation!!! winter cancel cancel.

I have to admit that this is a tad frustrating.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

This is going to be one of those winters where when its cold enough you dont get the storm and when you get the storm its not cold enough...typical La Nina.

[isnice]

yea, that one books outta here real fast too.

What's a good December analog where KNYC received only a trace of snow and frigid temperatures?

[tornadojay]

by the very end, it's completely zonal flow... a lot of cold air locked up in Canada still.

[Chris L]

zomg precipitation!!! winter cancel cancel.

I have to admit that this is a tad frustrating.

With the pattern being so blocky, we can't buy a strong polar jet energy nor the lack of STJ isn't helping....

[tombo82685]

after next week passes the pattern gets interesting. Thats where latitude is going to play a role with the west to east gradient

[Chris L]

What's a good December analog where KNYC received only a trace of snow and frigid temperatures?

December 1980 and 1983?

[tombo82685]

by the very end, it's completely zonal flow... a lot of cold air locked up in Canada still.

yea brutally cold, -40 to -50 temps in central and western canada

[SnoSki14]

If all goes well, then December might actually end up below normal temperature wise. Still, because of today's temperatures in the 60s, it'll take the next the 3 or so days for the positive departures to level out to neutral, and then can we start seeing some negative departures, but if for any reason we get another 2-3 days of 60+ temperatures this December, our averages could still end up just normal or even slightly above.

We're not dealing with any big time arctic air mass that would create severe departures, just cold enough to bring things down below average.

Yet, who knows how this month will go, one or two more lake cutters, and say hello to another above average month regarding temperatures.

This will not be our year, most Mets know that, JB knows that, and it's just something we'll have to put up with. La Ninas are incredibly frustrating for snow lovers, but it might now be all bad. We need a strong La Nina to help cool things down in Canada and globally so that the next season will be a lot better.

[isnice]

If all goes well, then December might actually end up below normal temperature wise. Still, because of today's temperatures in the 60s, it'll take the next the 3 or so days for the positive departures to level out to neutral, and then can we start seeing some negative departures, but if for any reason we get another 2-3 days of 60+ temperatures this December, our averages could still end up just normal or even slightly above.

We're not dealing with any big time arctic air mass that would create severe departures, just cold enough to bring things down below average.

Yet, who knows how this month will go, one or two more lake cutters, and say hello to another above average month regarding temperatures.

This will not be our year, most Mets know that, JB knows that, and it's just something we'll have to put up with. La Ninas are incredibly frustrating for snow lovers, but it might now be all bad. We need a strong La Nina to help cool things down in Canada and globally so that the next season will be a lot better.

This is a bit premature. Of course La Ninas are frustrating. The lack of the STJ prevents moisture from getting to us from the gulf and zonal flows whip storms out to sea before we can get precip. on the ground. However, I think our best chance would be a weak -NAO without such a dominant 50/50 low. I'm not saying we're getting any Miller As, but clipper systems that redevlelop and produce Miller Bs are still a threat for this winter.

[Chris L]

This is a bit premature. Of course La Ninas are frustrating. The lack of the STJ prevents moisture from getting to us from the gulf and zonal flows whip storms out to sea before we can get precip. on the ground. However, I think our best chance would be a weak -NAO without such a dominant 50/50 low. I'm not saying we're getting any Miller As, but clipper systems that redevlelop and produce Miller Bs are still a threat for this winter.

Of course there are the very rare exceptions, the January Blizzard of '96 (in a Nina), when you had a huge energy coming from the polar jet and fused a Miller A/B hybird. (But that's extremely rare here).

[isnice]

Of course there are the very rare exceptions, the January Blizzard of '96 (in a Nina), when you had a huge energy coming from the polar jet and fused a Miller A/B hybird. (But that's extremely rare here).

A clipper redeveloping into a Miller B is not so much to ask. Imagine a weak -NAO in the same situation we are now and tell me it wouldn't end up in a 6-12 inch storm from NYC to Boston. What I'm saying is that winter is not completely over just because we won't have any Miller As this year.