pazzo83 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 For the record, the 06z GFS had us into the mid 70's on Tuesday and Wednesday. It rains on Thursday but we're back into the upper 60's to 70's by next weekend. Whatever dude, we are going to be in the mid 40s until late June. Sry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 which analogs? and why are they analogs? 88-89 and 95-96. 07. All mod-strong Nina's. I do realize that 99 could also be used, but since that was the featured year of your post I'll avoid it. If you want specifics, it's going to take me a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 88-89 and 95-96. 07. All mod-strong Nina's If you want specifics, it's going to take me a few. oh, so this is just your opinion? in that case, i don't care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 LMAO you guys are ridiculous. Next week will be late April. We are like a week or a week and a half away from being significantly leafed out here in the city (almost every single tree has at least leaves or small buds). After Saturday it will be in the 60s/70s+ with few exceptions. A negative NAO in May, uhh, who cares? We don't live in northern New England. The avg high in NYC is in the mid/upper 60s by the end of the month. Do you remember May 2008? Trees weren't leafed out until May 15th-20th here in CNJ. NYC had 7 days with high temperatures 60F or lower, many of those days I clearly remember as cold, rainy, temps spent in the 50s most of the day. A few days barely cracked 50. By the end of the month, we finally warmed up into the low 80s, but final departures were still -2 to -3. It can be chilly in May, the difference is we'll be talking 50-60 and rainy rather than 40-50 and rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Do you remember May 2008? Trees weren't leafed out until May 15th-20th here in CNJ. NYC had 7 days with high temperatures 60F or lower, many of those days I clearly remember as cold, rainy, temps spent in the 50s most of the day. A few days barely cracked 50. By the end of the month, we finally warmed up into the low 80s, but final departures were still -2 to -3. It can be chilly in May, the difference is we'll be talking 50-60 and rainy rather than 40-50 and rainy. yep.. i just pulled out my weather station records for that month.. it was rather chilly... There were 8 sub 60 high temp days interestingly, there was one less day of highs between 60 and 70. The majority of days were in the 70's... 13 of them... the rest were over 80 didn't find any sub 50 days, but there were some in the lower 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Just from a tropical standpoint, let's compare tropical storm tracks from 1995 and 2010 1995 Now in terms of snowfall 95-96 snowfall at Central Park = 75.6" 10-11 snowfall at Central Park = 61.9" 99 was a much more typcial winter Nina pattern and featured only 12.7" of snow at Central Park. These are the highest two snowfall totals at Central Park since 1947-1948. Now comparing summers. The summer of 95 featured : and the summer of 2010 featured My conclusion, the best analong for the summer of 2011 is the summer of 1996. The SE US and eastern seabord should be open for business with regards to tropical threats. 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 96 would have failed miserably as an analog for feb/march this year i generally don't believe in analog forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Great post above! What did sensible weather look like in the summer of 96 for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 96 would have failed miserably as an analog for feb/march this year i generally don't believe in analog forecasting yea.. I have to agree..... especially with forecasting tropical weather for the summer.. we all know how unpredictable that could be.... even though the 95-96 winter season looks similarto the 10-11, I don't think that would necessarily have to carry over to the summer. There are so many global factors that influence the tropical season and if one those things becomes highly anomolous it will impact everything.. but, anyhow, noreaster, you are certainly entitled to make your judgement calls the way you see them... I won't knock you for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 96 would have failed miserably as an analog for feb/march this year i generally don't believe in analog forecasting your never going to come up with a perfect analog, but you can't argue the numerous similarities between 95-96 and 10-11. My post above didn't even cover the NAO/AO It's hard to tell by the graphics but I believe both years featured a mean negative NAO and positive AO, although I'm going to need to research this more before coming up with a better conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 yea.. I have to agree..... especially with forecasting tropical weather for the summer.. we all know how unpredictable that could be.... even though the 95-96 winter season looks similarto the 10-11, I don't think that would necessarily have to carry over to the summer. There are so many global factors that influence the tropical season and if one those things becomes highly anomolous it will impact everything.. but, anyhow, noreaster, you are certainly entitled to make your judgement calls the way you see them... I won't knock you for that. no analog is perfect, and I obviously don't have the knowledge that most of the mets on here have, but I see us heading towards and 96 esque summer and I'm open to ideas as to why this may or may not work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 Laugh all you want, it's not going to change in the forceable future. Indications are for a return to a negative NAO/ Positive AO blocking regime, and you seem to have missed the most important point of my previous post, "most of the analogs for the upcoming summer feature strong sprawling ridging over the western Atlantic." Wait, did you even take three seconds to look at the actual data? I literally took three seconds to google the cpc site ensemble forecasts for the nao and ao. the nao is currently positive and is forecast to stay above +1.0 for the next few weeks. the ao is forecast to drop rapidly. so basically the exact opposite of what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Wait, did you even take three seconds to look at the actual data? I literally took three seconds to google the cpc site ensemble forecasts for the nao and ao. the nao is currently positive and is forecast to stay above +1.0 for the next few weeks. the ao is forecast to drop rapidly. so basically the exact opposite of what you said. Shocking. Most of the stuff he posts is the exact opposite of what is occuring or what will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 your never going to come up with a perfect analog, but you can't argue the numerous similarities between 95-96 and 10-11. My post above didn't even cover the NAO/AO It's hard to tell by the graphics but I believe both years featured a mean negative NAO and positive AO, although I'm going to need to research this more before coming up with a better conclusion. the only thing with tropical predictions, is at has a lot more to do with just the NAO phase.. remember, we need these storms to spin up in the first place.. you have to take into account a lot of other things like rainfall patterns in Africa, sea surface temps, moisture availability, and countless other things that Dr. William Gray would use when he makes his predictions.. and track forecasting for east coast events is virtually impossible to predict until you actually have a storm to track in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 let it be known that i'm not arguing that we aren't going to torch in the near future. but i don't think it's going to be cold either. I've liked a slight positive departure for this spring all along and there's nothing making me want to adjust that idea. but for one, to say that the pattern is not going to change at all from now until july is not very smart. and second, if you're trying to make a point, at least have the data correct and take the time to look it up to verify your ideas. not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Wait, did you even take three seconds to look at the actual data? I literally took three seconds to google the cpc site ensemble forecasts for the nao and ao. the nao is currently positive and is forecast to stay above +1.0 for the next few weeks. the ao is forecast to drop rapidly. so basically the exact opposite of what you said. really? Regardless, I was more or less following the posts of some mets on here, this NAO/AO blocking is not my origional thought. The Euro seems to be fluctuating back and forth run to run with regards to the NAO From the 12z run yesterday The 00z run backed off, and its backed off quite a bit from a few days ago. The AO drop looks to be temporary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 let it be known that i'm not arguing that we aren't going to torch in the near future. but i don't think it's going to be cold either. I've liked a slight positive departure for this spring all along and there's nothing making me want to adjust that idea. but for one, to say that the pattern is not going to change at all from now until july is not very smart. and second, if you're trying to make a point, at least have the data correct and take the time to look it up to verify your ideas. not a big deal. If you went back and actually read what I wrote, I said I'm failing to see how this pattern is going to change much between now and then, and I'll gladly accept any thoughts as to why I might be wrong. I get it, you just don't like me, that's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 hmmmm... and all this time, I thought we were talking about tropical land threats to the east coast this summer... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 hmmmm... and all this time, I thought we were talking about tropical land threats to the east coast this summer... lol Start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Laugh all you want, it's not going to change in the forceable future. Indications are for a return to a negative NAO/ Positive AO blocking regime, and you seem to have missed the most important point of my previous post, "most of the analogs for the upcoming summer feature strong sprawling ridging over the western Atlantic." Just like those epic snows we got at the end of last month right? Oh wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Start a thread. no, that's quite alright. I don't want to start a thread on it... besides which we're already discussing long range summer patterns in a severe weather thread.. I simply was commenting on Noreasters prediction of heavy east coast tropical threats for the summer and simply saying that just trying to predict the amount of activity alone is virtually impossible.. and there is really no way to predict where tropical storms will track this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 no, that's quite alright. I don't want to start a thread on it... besides which we're already discussing long range summer patterns in a severe weather thread.. I simply was commenting on Noreasters prediction of heavy east coast tropical threats for the summer and simply saying that just trying to predict the amount of activity alone is virtually impossible.. and there is really no way to predict where tropical storms will track this summer. agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 If you went back and actually read what I wrote, I said I'm failing to see how this pattern is going to change much between now and then, and I'll gladly accept any thoughts as to why I might be wrong. I get it, you just don't like me, that's cool. You think the pattern will be the same for 90+ days? What?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Just like those epic snows we got at the end of last month right? Oh wait... way to take what I said, put your spin on it, and blow it completely out of proportion. I think I made some very good points in my detailed comparison post between 95-96 and 10-11. The April snow is another story, but FWIW, as we all know April 96 featured way above average snowfall for NYC metro. We all remember opening day for the Yanks in 96. This year, things fell apart at the last minute, what can I say, bad modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 You think the pattern will be the same for 90+ days? What?? It is impossible for a pattern to stay exactly the same for 90 days.. I think what noreaster is predicting... and he can correct me if I'm wrong.. is that he expects a highly anomolous blocking pattern for the upcoming season with a predominant trend of a particular weather pattern, with possibly a few breaks here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 It is impossible for a pattern to stay exactly the same for 90 days.. I think what noreaster is predicting... and he can correct me if I'm wrong.. is that he expects a highly anomolous blocking pattern for the upcoming season with a predominant trend of a particular weather pattern, with possibly a few breaks here and there. nicely put, and if you wish to challange that idea, at least back it with sound scientific reasoning. I've often argued that what has happened in the past has no bearing on the future, but in the case of a forecast with months of lead time, there is not much more to go by then climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 nicely put, and if you wish to challange that idea, at least back it with sound scientific reasoning. well, for me... personally... I'm not going to challenge it.. I've never really been good at thinking about or even making long range predictions for an upcoming season. What you predict could happen.. I really am not sure. I just hope it's hot like last summer though. I do like the hot weather.. and some good t-storm events would be nice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 well, for me... personally... I'm not going to challenge it.. I've never really been good at thinking about or even making long range predictions for an upcoming season. What you predict could happen.. I really am not sure. I just hope it's hot like last summer though. I do like the hot weather.. and some good t-storm events would be nice too. Mother nature has a way of doing whatever in the hell it pleases, but my thoughts about an active east coast tropical season are not alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 way to take what I said, put your spin on it, and blow it completely out of proportion. I think I made some very good points in my detailed comparison post between 95-96 and 10-11. The April snow is another story, but FWIW, as we all know April 96 featured way above average snowfall for NYC metro. We all remember opening day for the Yanks in 96. This year, things fell apart at the last minute, what can I say, bad modeling. I believe the term is irrational model hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 21, 2011 Author Share Posted April 21, 2011 If you went back and actually read what I wrote, I said I'm failing to see how this pattern is going to change much between now and then, and I'll gladly accept any thoughts as to why I might be wrong. I get it, you just don't like me, that's cool. I never said I didn't like you dude, I just think you're reaching. And when you post incorrect data, it looks terrible. And then you go and post yesterday's 12z old run for backup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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